巴黎7月1日(许清如)在当地时间6月30日举行的第一轮议会选举中,极右翼政党国民联盟(National Rally,RN)及其来自共和党(Les Républicains,LR)的盟友遥遥领先于左翼联盟新人民阵线(New Popular Front,NFP)和总统联盟(Ensemble)。 不过一切尚未尘埃落定，在一周后举行的第二轮选举中，万事皆有可能。
[2024 Legislative Election: The final results of the first round of elections for each political party are as follows]
The National Alliance emerged as the biggest winner, the New Popular Front made solid progress, and the presidential majority suffered a crushing defeat. These were the main results of the first round of legislative elections, which took place on Sunday, 30 June. Seventy-six MPs were elected in the first round of voting, all of whom received more than half of the valid votes.
Results of the first round of elections for each political faction
According to the final results released by the Ministry of the Interior on Sunday night, the National Alliance and its allies received 33.14% of the vote and sent 39 members to the National Assembly in the first round of voting, including Marine Le Pen.
The New Popular Front came in second with 27.99 percent of the vote, with 32 people elected in the first round, followed by the candidate of Emmanuel Macron and his allies with 20.76 percent of the vote and 2 seats. Next came the Republican Party with 6.56% of the vote and 1 seat, and the other right-wing parties with 3.67% of the vote and 2 seats.
Voter turnout in this election was very high, with the final result showing 66.71%. This was the highest turnout in such an election since 2002. 1.77% of voters cast blank ballots and 0.82% of votes were counted as invalid.
The National Alliance leads in the vast majority of constituencies, with only the constituencies in western France maintaining their advantage with the support of the presidential majority and their allies (20.8% of the national vote); In the Centre and Île-de-France regions, especially in the inner suburbs and the capital, support for the new Popular Front is higher (nearly 28% nationally).
There are many uncertainties in the second round of elections
In the upcoming second round of elections, anything is possible. In addition to the 190 traditional matchups, there will be 306 constituencies in the second round of elections where three candidates will contest. In five constituencies, there will even be four candidates. However, some candidates may drop out in order to prevent the far-right from coming to power.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the former leader of La France insoumise (LFI), was quick to announce that a new Popular Front candidate, who finished fourth in the first round, would withdraw from the race. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has also promised that if a candidate in his camp (that is, President Emmanuel Macron's) comes third in the election, that candidate can opt out of the race in favor of another candidate. But only if the candidate being supported is someone who identifies with and practices "republican values." This is to form a broader coalition in the second round of elections against the far-right National Alliance.
President Emmanuel Macron called for a "broad coalition" in the face of the National Alliance and praised the "will to clarify the political situation" expressed in the first round of elections. "In the face of the National Alliance, the moment of the second round of elections requires a clear broad coalition of democracy and republicanism," the president said in a written statement. Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, secretary of state and current parliamentarian, announced her withdrawal from the race on Sunday night after coming third in the elections in the first constituency of Marseille, with a clear call to vote against the National Alliance.
On Sunday night, the Ipsos Institute (Ipsos) predicted that the National Alliance and its allies would receive between 230 and 280 seats, the New Popular Front between 125 and 165 seats, while the presidential majority would gain between 70 and 100 seats.
How is the vote distributed among French voters? 】
After the first round of legislative elections, held on Sunday, 30 June, the National Rally is at the door of power and is likely to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly, for the first time in the history of the Republic. A large survey of more than 10,000 people conducted by Ipsos Research in the two days leading up to the election weekend gives us a closer look at how French people vote according to their circumstances. The survey details a "new, diverse and broad group of PN voters".
- Young people voted for the New Popular Front, while retirees leaned more towards the presidential majority
On Sunday, nearly one out of every two French people between the ages of 18 and 24 voted for the new Popular Front. In this age group, the Popular Front won 48 percent of the vote, followed by the National Alliance with 33 percent. Both the presidential camp and the Republican Party are far behind (9%).
The New Popular Front and the National Alliance received the overwhelming majority of votes among working people (25-59 years old), and among those aged 35-49 and 50-59 years, the far right led the left (36% to 31% and 40% to 25%).
In contrast, retirees were the only age group to put the presidential coalition in second place (29 percent), behind the National League (31 percent) and last was the New Popular Front (20 percent). Among voters aged 70 and over, 32 percent voted for the presidential camp, 29 percent for the National Alliance and 18 percent for the left.
- Workers are more likely to support the National Alliance, while the management is more supportive of the New Popular Front and the presidential camp
The National Alliance and its allies performed best among blue-collar workers (57%) and white-collar workers (44%). Conversely, among the management, far-right parties performed the worst: only 21% voted for them. This group is more inclined to support the New Popular Front (34%), followed by the presidential camp (26%).
- Those with low educational qualifications voted for the National Alliance
A survey of the last academic qualifications obtained by voters showed that 49 per cent of respondents who did not have a high school diploma said they would choose a Nasional candidate when voting. The remaining two major groups are tied for second place, with 17 per cent each.
Among respondents who ended up with a high school diploma (38 per cent) and two years of tertiary education (Bac+2) (32 per cent), the National Alliance still led the way in terms of votes. Of the two categories of respondents, the left came second (26 percent and 28 percent), while the presidential camp lagged behind (19 percent and 22 percent).
A higher percentage of those with a bachelor's degree (Bac+3) voted for the New Popular Front (37%), far more than the National Alliance and the presidential camp (22%).
- The National Alliance leads the way among both the richest and poorest in terms of support
The parties of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Valdera have long been considered to be the vote of the French "working class", but now, they also seem to have convinced the wealthiest voters. In fact, 32% of respondents who earn more than 3,000 euros say they would vote for the National Alliance and its allies, far more than the left (26%) and the presidential camp (23%). In contrast, in 2022, the balance of power in this social class is completely reversed: 15% for the National Alliance, 28% for the presidential camp and 22% for the left.
The same is true among those who earn less than 1,250 euros: the National Front and its allies lead (38%, +17 percentage points in two years), above the New Popular Front (35%, +1 percentage point in two years) and the presidential camp (12%, -7 percentage points in two years).
[Suspension of unemployment insurance reform, the Minister of Economy is dissatisfied! ] 】
On Sunday evening, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced the temporary suspension of the unemployment insurance reform, in light of the results of the first round of early parliamentary elections. The far-right, the left-wing coalition and the trade unions have all condemned the reform on different grounds. In mid-June, the head of state, Emmanuel Macron, described it as "indispensable" and said that the government "made the right move in the election campaign", but also said that he was open to the "reform model".
In order to avoid a legal vacuum (the current regulations are only valid until Sunday 30 June), the government issued an exceptional "joint decree" on Monday morning extending the current conditions "until 31 July". The text, published in the Official Gazette on Monday morning, states: "June 30 changed to July 31. ”
Gabriel Attar wants to use this one-month grace period to show that he has listened to the vote of part of the French.
This decision angered the Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire. Speaking on Monday morning on France Inter, he said that in the current electoral context "there is a great deal of caution in terms of promises, expediency, compromises and calculations", saying that "reforms need to continue". "I will not change my faith just because I have to convince someone in 24 hours", he stressed, and stuck to his "ministerial convictions" in the Ministry of Finance.
The reform, prepared by the incumbent majority party, reduces the maximum compensation period for people under the age of 57 from 18 months to 15 months from December 1. In addition, it is necessary to work at least eight months in the last 20 months in order to receive compensation, compared to the current requirement of at least six months in the last 24 months. The presidential camp has reaffirmed that they are proposing this reform in order to achieve full employment.
[Despite the political background, bank mortgage rates still fell in July]
Despite the fact that the current political climate is worrying and has plunged France into an atmosphere of uncertainty for almost a month, the banks are not panicking. According to the brokerage firm Vousfinancer, the banks in July