At present, the farce of Ren'ai Jiao in the South China Sea is not over, and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos is still thinking about how to find a place under China's strict defense, but he does not know that his backyard has caught fire. On the one hand, the old Philippine political family, the Duterte family, is back and is about to participate in next year's presidential election. On the other hand, war broke out again in the Philippines, which was already not peaceful. Recently, fierce fighting has taken place between Philippine government forces and rebels. Taking advantage of the internal turmoil in the Philippines, the rise of rebels, and the approach of political rivals, Marcos finally felt that the edifice was about to fall.
Let's start with the topic of the Philippine rebels. As an archipelagic country, the Philippines has unequal wealth and social contradictions, and rebel groups are active in many parts of the country. Among them, the left-wing opposition forces represented by the "New People's Army" have always been a serious problem for the Philippine government. In recent years, a series of related clean-up operations carried out by the Philippine government army have not achieved much success. Even, because the fighting site was near the town, in order to avoid accidentally injuring civilians, the Philippine government had to move thousands of soldiers and civilians in the town of Deepakulau, Aurora State, to a safe area. A series of firefights left the Philippine government forces helpless. Previously, the Marcos administration also attempted to hold peace talks and dialogues with the top level of the "New People's Army", hoping to end the decades-long left-wing armed rebellion in the country and shift its national defense strategy from internal chaos to conflict in the South China Sea. But it is clear that the Philippine government has not been able to offer conditions that will please the rebels.
Judging from the current situation of the Philippine civil war, although the "New People's Army" is weak enough to compete with the Philippine government army, they are good at guerrilla warfare, and they have the broad support of the local population, and can obtain a steady stream of personnel and material support, which is a headache for Marcos. To make matters worse, the militant active area extends to the town of Deepakulau, Aurora, which is part of the outer ring of the Philippine capital and only about 180 kilometers from Manila. According to Philippine media reports, it is only the vanguard that is currently fighting with the Philippine government forces, and the "New People's Army" is gathering forces to prepare for military operations in the Manila metropolitan area. Whether the operation succeeds or not, it will be a serious blow to the prestige of the Marcos administration and Philippine government forces.
In fact, in addition to the "New People's Army", the Moro opposition forces active in Mindanao in the southern Philippines are also a major problem for the Marcos government. Compared with the "New People's Army", which mainly fights guerrilla warfare, the Moro people are larger in scale, more advanced in weaponry, and even in line with the "Islamic State" extremist group. Worse still, Mindanao is the stronghold of the Duterte family, and as the conflict between the two families continues to intensify, Duterte will inevitably use this force to put pressure on Marcos. In order to eliminate the rebels, the Marcos administration had to strengthen its army forces, and the Philippines itself had a small military budget, and even less could be spent on the navy and air force. Continuing to provoke China in the South China Sea with unreliable equipment, Marcos is clearly playing with fire.
What worries Marcos even more is that the threat of political rivals is greater than that of rebels and local forces. Recently, Duterte's daughter, Sarah, has resigned as vice president and is expected to become mayor of Davao City, the home of the Duterte family. Meanwhile, Duterte's youngest son, Sebastian, will run for the Senate in preparation for the 2028 presidential election. As the contradictions between Duterte and Marcos become apparent, Philippine politics will also set off huge waves. Duterte, who still has a strong influence in China, has gathered his family power and returned to the king, coupled with the attack of Philippine rebels, Marcos no longer has the energy to care about the South China Sea. If the situation continues to deteriorate and Marcos' presidency is not secured, the China policy that has been designed for a long time will be completely wasted paper. Under the leadership of the Duterte family, the Philippines may also be back on track, and a new chapter in China-Philippines relations may begin.