Author丨Yuki
Editor丨Tangerine
It is not necessarily wealth that is pouring into the sky, but it may also be a heavy rain that keeps consumption at home.
The peak season is not prosperous, and the soy sauce is bursting
Since April, the presence of rainwater in the southern part of the mainland has reached the point of swiping the screen, and places in southern China have encountered heavy rainfall and strong convection "wheel warfare". In June, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River experienced continuous heavy rainfall. The National Climate Center predicts that in July, precipitation will still be high in most parts of Northeast China, North China, Central and North East China, Central and North China, Eastern Northwest China, and Northern Xinjiang.
With the continuous heavy rainfall in many places in the south, recently, "How much rain has it rained in the south in the past few months?" "Changsha went down 54 West Lakes in 1 hour" and other related topics rushed to the hot search.
But what's worse is that the pouring rain not only extinguished the willingness of ordinary people to go out to consume, but also extinguished the "peak season" business of countless FMCG dealers and stores. In addition to the repeated news of the liquidation of beverage distributors, there are also low-key condiment distributors who have always been "looking at the sky and sighing".
A staff member of a condiment wholesale store in East China said that the continuous heavy rain has caused her customer base to plummet, and a large number of condiments that originally relied on orders from the catering industry are unsalable, and the inventory is high, especially the inventory of soy sauce has reached a record high. "There used to be more than a dozen restaurants coming in every day, but now there are only one or two left." She also revealed that the stock of soy sauce in the warehouse has surged from the original 100 cases to 500 boxes, and the sales pressure is huge.
Coincidentally.
This is echoed by another county-level condiment wholesaler whose business covers the county and surrounding areas, and whose main customers, restaurants and snack stalls, have closed or suspended operations due to the persistently heavy rains. "The rain has had a big impact on the catering market, especially the late-night snack and crayfish market. The crayfish market has almost halved...... The warehouse is already full, and among them, the stock of soy sauce exceeds 2,000 boxes. ”
"The dealers in our area are basically liquidated, and the entire service office was unable to pay last month...... Business may be good in a few areas, but most areas can't do it. A South China distributor of a big brand of seasonings said.
Another reason for the "bad business" of condiments that accompanied the heavy rain was the "large-scale withdrawal" of catering in some areas.
In April this year, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in the first quarter of this year, about 460,000 catering enterprises in China cancelled or cancelled their operations, an increase of 232.6% over the same period last year. In other words, in three months, nearly 460,000 catering enterprises "fell"; And this data is in the first quarter of 2023, less than 140,000.
According to data released by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, Beijing's catering industry will achieve revenue of 42.22 billion yuan from January to April 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Among them, the revenue of Beijing's catering industry in April was about 10.419 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. Coincidentally, the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics also announced the total retail sales of consumer goods from January to April, of which the retail sales of accommodation and catering industry reached 49.026 billion yuan, down 2.5%.
Declining revenues have put pressure on F&B businesses, especially those on the verge of profitability and have been forced to close their doors as they struggle to maintain their operations. The catering market, which can be called "sad", indirectly makes condiment companies "suffer" together. In addition, prefabricated dishes are rampant in the catering circle, and some catering chain enterprises such as Village Base, Zhen Kung Fu, Yoshinoya, Xibei and other enterprises account for more than 80% of the prefabricated dishes, which has caused a lot of impact on the business of condiment companies.
For some distributors, the bleakness of catering is the deep-seated reason why the condiment business is difficult to do. And bad weather conditions may be just the "last straw that breaks the camel's back".
It is worth noting that the rainstorm weather not only impacts the catering, but also brings great challenges to the "other leg" of condiment sales - traditional retail.
A store owner said, "It rained yesterday and sold for more than 1,000. Don't come in alone for half a day. "It's hard to do business, and it's even worse when it's raining." In previous summers, business in May was not as good as June, and this year June was not as good as in May – the first time I saw that business in the summer was getting worse and worse. Especially the precipitous decline in turnover after the Dragon Boat Festival, it is difficult to do, and the mentality has become anxious. ”
Another supermarket owner said, "Last month's income was 22,000. Excluding hiring people, store rent and renting our own house, the net profit is only 5,500, which is not enough for living expenses. The couple also worked hard to stay in the store for 30 days, and it was the first time they saw business getting worse and worse in the summer. ”
"Heavy rain has continued to fall, and even the drinking water of a leading brand has dropped by three to four percent, not to mention condiments." He said.
Toss hard and have a good heart
It is worth noting that the current pressure on condiment distributors is not all the "pot" of the weather. Under the pull of the unspeakably optimistic market situation and internal growth pressure, many leading companies are trying to find a breakthrough; But judging from the actual situation, it is still "a scripture that is difficult to read in every family".
According to the above-mentioned dealer, "in order to save money, starting from April this year, the brand I represent will stop all the tie fees." If it is implemented, the dealer needs to make a plan to the manufacturer at a cost, rather than a gift. Nowadays, brands are beginning to learn from farmers or other brands, and there is only a fee for paying every month, even if it is exceeded this month, there is no cost if it can't be played next month, and it is a set of drinks and milk. ”
In his view, at the moment when the inventory and capital chain problems are like "flood beasts", the "throttling" of manufacturers has further intensified the pressure on dealers, but they are helpless.
This big brand, which can be called a leading enterprise in the field of condiments, "The biggest problem is that it has lost its wolf nature and lacks enterprising spirit." A Hunan dealer said. For example, he said, "In the past five years, in the largest communities in Changsha, supermarkets that mainly sell the brand's products have less and less space left for the product. Among them, the zero-added products that have been on the market for three years have not been put on the shelves here, and it is understandable that they can't win the boss and the second, and even some young brands can't be sold. ”
Behind this, in addition to the factors of the external environment, it is also due to the slow progress of the brand's channel reform.
For example, they originally planned to start with the leading catering enterprises to carry out technical exchanges and product applications, but they encountered some difficulties in the actual implementation process, especially in the issue of inviting customers and funding. In addition, the brand also conducted a survey of distributors and the market in December last year, and decided to open OEM products and jointly developed products to large customers.
However, it remains to be seen how effective these programs will actually be.
In addition, Uchisanjun learned that this year, in the northern region, the big brand has tried to transform beer distributors into condiment distributors. The main reasons for this move are: the catering channel has a long account period, the profit is not as fast as expected, and the turnover speed is not as fast as beer.
As a result, many beer distributors abandoned the condiment business just a few months after the transition, resulting in a reform that failed to yield significant results.
"Although there are a lot of ideas, the actual implementation is mediocre. In contrast, the competitors of the other heads performed better in terms of execution. The aforementioned dealer said.
In fact, such an embarrassment is not only reflected in a brand of toning products. Brands that are larger than it also have their own unspeakable secrets.
A dealer said, "The sales target of the L brand this year is relatively high. In order to achieve the goal, some sales sprints and marketing strategies were employed, but this led to a lot of internal friction. At present, my warehouse has a lot of inventory and a lot of brand arrears. To solve these problems, it is necessary to purchase 10 times the amount of goods owed to get the cost back, but this also needs to rely on the cost to ship, resulting in increasing financial pressure on dealers. ”
He also revealed, "This is not caused by too heavy tasks, but the cost problem caused by improper matching of incoming and outgoing resources." The current shipment distribution ratio is 11%-12%, but the purchase ratio is less than 7%, and this structural imbalance has led to a growing cost deficit. As far as I know, the arrears of the L brand are starting to increase, and this is basically the case across the country, which is a red flag. ”
Talking about the future, he said, "Due to the unsatisfactory cost investment, it is difficult to meet the ratio of sales required by the task, and we are now gradually slowing down the pace of sales and gradually formulating expenses." However, many dealers are not in a hurry to expand the market, and manufacturers also need to make up for the cost of funds, and the slowdown in the shipments of some condiment head companies in the second half of the year may be inevitable. ”
However, for some big businessmen. With the improvement of the weather and the arrival of the peak season, 2024 is still worth looking forward to.
For example, for the sales in the first half of the year, some dealers said, "there will still be growth." The reason for this is that "on the whole, there are four peak sales seasons in the second half of the year. Among them, July and August are the peak sales seasons, and explosive growth is expected. The September school season will also have a certain boost to sales. Golden Week in October and holidays in December will also drive the overall results. Overall, the current state of the F&B market and the later performance of the brand will be key. ”
It may still be a particularly difficult year for condiments, but we always have to work hard and have a good heart.