The supply of live pigs in the market has decreased, the demand continues to be sluggish, coupled with the heavy rainfall in some areas, the purchase and sales are light, and the pig price is still struggling. According to the monitoring of a lot of pig data, today, the average price of three-yuan pigs outside the country is 18.47 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 2 cents compared with yesterday.
The price of live pigs across the country has shown a trend of rising to falling, and the overall situation is stable and falling. In the price drop area, the decline is roughly in the range of 0.05 - 0.1 yuan / catty.
Nationally, Northeast China as a whole showed a downward trend, while North China maintained a weak upward trend. In South China, except for Guangzhou, the rest of the country is also mainly upward. The southwest and northwest regions were dominated by slight declines. However, it is worth mentioning that the rise and fall across the country is relatively small.
In the last week, due to the slowdown in the pace of slaughter at the breeding end, superimposed on the reluctance of farmers to sell, strongly supported by this series of factors, the center of gravity of pig prices has moved up as a whole.
Starting next week, the willingness of the breeding end to slaughter has increased significantly, and the slaughter plan of group farms in many regions has increased significantly. The slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises is at a low level, and their enthusiasm for procurement is not high. Group companies have chosen to reduce prices and volume, and retail investors' price sentiment has gradually loosened. It is expected that the support of pig prices will weaken in the short term, and then turn into a shock-based situation.
However, from a longer-term perspective, the fact that pig prices will gradually improve has been confirmed! This point has been seen from the monthly sales report of listed pig enterprises in June.
In June 2024, the number of pigs slaughtered by New Hope, Tianbang, and Muyuan decreased significantly both month-on-month and year-on-year. Among them, the number of live pigs slaughtered in Muyuan in June was 5.068 million, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 12%; New Hope sold 1.2865 million live pigs in June, down 5.88% month-on-month; ST Tianbang sold 495,100 commercial pigs in June, and the number of live pigs slaughtered decreased by 11% month-on-month.
This data strongly verifies the authenticity of the "break period" that everyone has been talking about, and the series of linkage reactions brought about by it. This data also explains very well why the price of hogs in June was able to launch a strong shock to 10 yuan......
What is even more reassuring to pig farmers is that this "break period" will continue in July. The biggest supporting factor for the market in the second half of 2024 is that "the supply of live pigs has entered a state of decreasing month by month", which will be the biggest expectation that pig prices can run steadily and strongly.
In addition, from December 2022 to March 2024, the cumulative decline in fertile sows reached 9.1%. Judging from the historical review, the range of 8%-10% in each round of pig cycle is enough to support a new round of price increases. In the pig market, in addition to the continuous recovery of pig prices in the first half of the year, the cost of breeding is also continuing to decline, which makes the "pig profit" more considerable. According to the current market calculation, a fat pig can achieve a profit of 500 yuan, and the breeding end has completely got rid of the loss dilemma that lasted for more than a year in the early stage. Moreover, there is still room for further improvement in the profits of the breeding end.