Forest and grassland fire risk trend analysis report
(July 8–14, 2024)
First, the overall trend
This week, there was heavy rainfall in the Huanghuai, Jianghuai and Sichuan basins on the mainland, and high temperatures continued in Jiangnan and South China. The areas with high forest and grassland fire danger levels in China are mainly concentrated in some areas of northeast China, northeast northwest, and northwestern China.
It is estimated that the fire danger level of forest and grassland in northeast Inner Mongolia, northwest Heilongjiang and northern Xinjiang will be relatively high (level 3). Among them, the fire danger level of forest and grassland in the northeast of Inner Mongolia and the northwest of Heilongjiang is high fire danger (level 4). National parks, forests, grasslands, and grasslands have a low fire danger level.
Recently, the forest area of the Daxing'an Mountains has continued to be dry and rainless, and there has been a continuous high temperature weather above 35 °C, dry thunderstorm activities are extremely frequent, and a number of forest lightning fires have occurred one after another, showing a multi-point concentrated outbreak trend. At the same time, the wind direction and wind force of the fire site change at any time, the terrain of the fire scene is complex, the pine is dense, and the underground humus layer is thick, which is easy to form underground fires, and the fighting conditions are extremely difficult, and the fire prevention and control situation is very severe. The competent departments of forest and grass fire prevention should pay close attention to personnel activities and weather changes, especially the extreme weather such as continuous high temperature, drought, strong wind, and lightning are very easy to cause fires.
National forest and grassland fire risk prediction map from July 8, 2024 to July 14, 2024
Second, the fire situation in the same period of history
This week, the number of satellite monitoring hotspots in the same period in the past 10 years decreased by 17% compared with last week, and there were more satellite monitoring hotspots in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Heilongjiang, Yunnan and other provinces. Among all satellite monitoring hotspots, forest (grass) fires accounted for 26%, planned fires accounted for 26%, and agricultural fires accounted for 14%. In the past five years, the number of historical fires has nearly doubled compared with last week, and Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are the provinces with more fires, with lightning fires accounting for 85%, and other fire causes are agricultural fires, wild smoking, and sacrificial fires.
3. Weather conditions across the country
This week, it is expected that the temperature in most parts of the country will be close to the same period of the year to be high, of which Jiangnan, most of South China, Jianghuai and other places will have continuous high temperature weather, with the highest temperature reaching 35~38 °C. In addition, the number of high temperature days in Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia and other places can reach 5~10 days; The cumulative precipitation in the eastern and southern parts of the northwest of the mainland, the central and southern parts of the northeast region, the Huanghuai, the Jianghuai, the eastern part of Jianghan, the central and western parts of Guangxi, the southwest region and the eastern and southern parts of Tibet is 50~90 mm, of which the southern part of Shaanxi, the southeastern part of Gansu, the central and southern parts of Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui, the Sichuan Basin and the southern and western parts of Yunnan have 100~180 mm, and the southern part of Shandong, the northeast of Henan, the northern part of Jiangsu and Anhui, and the northern part of the Sichuan Basin can reach more than 250 mm. The cumulative precipitation in most of the above areas is 5~8 times more than that in the same period of the year, and more than 1 times more in some areas.
In the coming week, the average temperature in most parts of the country is expected to be more than 1 °C higher than that of the same period in normal years, of which the southern part of Xinjiang is 2~3 °C higher; The cumulative precipitation in the southeast of northwest China, North China, the southern part of Northeast China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Sichuan Basin, southern Yunnan and southeastern Tibet is 40~80 mm, and 100~150 mm in some areas.
Early warning tips for counties (districts and cities) with high fire risk across the country
This week, the fire danger level of forest and grassland in some areas of northeast Inner Mongolia, northwest Heilongjiang, and northern Xinjiang is expected to be high fire danger (level 3). Among them, the forest and grassland fire danger level of four county-level administrative units in some areas of northeast Inner Mongolia and northwest Heilongjiang is high fire danger (level 4). The details are as follows:
1. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (1)
Hulunbuir City, Erguna City.
2. Heilongjiang Province (3)
Mohe City, Huma County, and Tahe County in the Daxinganling region.
The above trend analysis is for internal use of the Forestry and Grassland Fire Prevention Department only
Fire Prevention Center, Department of Fire Prevention, National Forestry and Grassland Administration
Executive Editor-in-Chief|Liu Siwen Email|[email protected]