About a month and a half after Raisi's death, Iran finally elected its ninth democratically elected president through elections. Former Iranian Health Minister Massoud Pezeshkian won the election with 16.384 million votes, or at least 53.6% of the total votes. Immediately after his election, the Chinese side sent a congratulatory message at the highest level, but compared with the congratulatory message congratulating Raisi on his election three years ago, the Chinese side's wording has changed to a certain extent.
According to the Russian news agency Sputnik, the highest level of the Chinese side has called Massoud Pezeshkian to congratulate him on his election as president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In his congratulatory message, the Chinese side spoke highly of China-Iran relations, stressing that in the face of the complex regional and international situation, China and Iran have always supported each other and worked together in times of need, continuously consolidated strategic mutual trust, steadily promoted exchanges and cooperation in various fields, and maintained good communication and coordination on regional and international affairs, which has not only benefited the Chinese and Iranian peoples, but also made positive contributions to promoting regional and world peace and stability.
On the whole, China's congratulatory message this time has much more content than three years ago, with about 110 more words more than the number of words alone, and some of the wording is also different. For example, three years ago, the Chinese side only briefly mentioned the fact that China and Iran are comprehensive strategic partners in its congratulatory message, but this time the Chinese side stated that it will lead the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership to advance in depth. Three years ago, the term "President Raisi" was used in the message, and the latest message refers directly to Massoud Pezeshkian as "Mr. President".
The latest congratulatory message is more detailed and emphasizes the importance of the relationship between the two countries than it was three years ago, which is not untargeted. Massoud Pezeshkian is a leading figure of Iran's reformist faction, having risen through the ranks to power in the early 2000s as deputy health minister under then-reformist President Khatami. Iran's reformists, on the other hand, are largely pro-American in their foreign advocacy, working to ease relations with the United States in order to restore the economy.
Does a pro-American Iran have a positive impact on China's presence in the Middle East? The answer, I'm afraid, is no. As long as many countries in the Middle East do not reconcile with Israel and ease with the United States, there will be no way for the US military to withdraw, because it has to defend both US oil hegemony and Israel's national security. And the "leaders" of the Middle East are two countries, namely Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. Not long ago, a number of US media reported that the United States and Saudi Arabia are negotiating in private, which at least shows that Saudi Arabia has this will; If Iran turns to the United States again, the anti-American forces in the Middle East will be much smaller, and the US military will be able to withdraw its hand at that time.
But now is not the time to focus too much on Iran's election of a reformist president. First, whether reformists or conservatives come to power in Iran, their policies are influenced by the domestic popular tendencies, with urban residents generally being more pro-American, while voters in rural areas are generally pro-conservative. Even if Massoud Pezeshkian had his heart set on the United States, the people at home would not unanimously agree to ease relations with Soleimani's killer. Second, the supreme power in Iran is in the hands of Khamenei, and in the final analysis, Khamenei has to grasp the general direction of domestic and foreign affairs, and Massoud Pezeshkian has not yet been able to do things on his own.
All in all, China's congratulatory message this time is full of ardent expectations, hoping that Iran will also attach importance to its friendly relations with China. In terms of interests, even when the pro-American president was in power, the United States did its best to blockade it, not to mention that Trump had forcibly withdrawn from the JCPOA. From a geopolitical point of view, the United States and Israel have always been on the same front, and after the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, will Iran be able to ease its relations with these two countries under pressure from the entire Islamic world? I'm afraid it's also difficult. Massoud Pezeshkian would do well to be pragmatic.