The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released China: Stone Fruit Annual, which analyzes China's 2024/25 peache, nectarine and cherry production forecasts, consumption trends, price changes and related policies. Details are as follows:
Production
Production of peaches and nectarines
Production Forecast:
In the 2024/25 marketing year, China's peach and nectarine production is expected to reach 17.6 million tonnes (MMT), a slight increase from the previous season. Although parts of the north, such as Shandong and Henan, are affected by severe heat and drought, and fruit growth may be negatively affected by a lack of moisture, good harvests in the northwest and south are expected to compensate for this reduction. These regions include Shaanxi, Shanxi, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and Anhui. Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang produce fewer high-value peaches but higher quality.
Acreage:
Planted areas for peaches and nectarines are expected to continue to decline in the 2024/25 marketing year, mainly in the northern plains such as Hebei and Shandong. Unsatisfactory market returns have led some farmers to turn to other more economically efficient crops, such as cherries. At the same time, the government's strict policy on land use also requires farmers to prioritize the cultivation of food crops on "basic farmland".
Cultivation method:
Although the area of peaches and nectarines cultivated in greenhouses is small, there is a gradual trend of increase. Some farmers harvest early by growing in greenhouses to get a higher market price. The harvest season for local peaches begins in mid-May and lasts until the end of October, while greenhouse-grown peaches and nectarines can be marketed in April.
Breed selection:
To meet the diverse needs of consumers, farmers are growing more varieties of peaches and nectarines, including those that are juicy or firm in texture, white, red or yellow in flesh color, and round or flat in shape. Newly developed varieties such as flat donut nectarines and mini nectarines have also entered the market. The market share of traditional peaches is expected to continue to decline, with consumers preferring nectarines that are easy to eat.
Production mode:
China's peach industry is mainly made up of smallholder farmers, with an average of 0.7 hectares of land per farmer. Farmers often grow multiple varieties of peaches and nectarines in their orchards, and this mode of production struggles to produce peaches and nectarines of consistent quality. Due to the perishability of these fruits, post-harvest processing such as sorting is not common. In addition, peaches and nectarines are generally not transported in the cold chain and are considered low-value, well-supplied fruits.
Labor Costs:
The biggest challenges facing peach production in China are high labor costs and an aging workforce. According to the survey, peach farmers are between 47 and 70 years old. Peach bagging in Shandong has reached 200 yuan (US$27.8) per day.
Cherry production
Production Forecast:
In the 2024/25 marketing year, China's cherry production is expected to reach 850,000 tonnes, up 6% from the previous season. While the drought persists in parts of the north, such as Shandong Province, the cherry harvest period is mainly before the drought intensifies, so the overall impact is limited. In major cherry producing regions such as Yantai, Shandong, drought has resulted in generally smaller fruits, but production and quality in other major producing areas are expected to improve under normal growing conditions.
Acreage:
Cherry acreage continues to expand, but at a slower pace. The land use policy issued by the central government requires that cultivated land should not be used for non-agricultural purposes, and basic farmland should not be used to grow crops other than food. Good market returns have prompted farmers to grow more cherries in mountainous or hilly areas in western and southwestern provinces such as Shaanxi, Shanxi, Gansu, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan. Greenhouse cherry production is developing rapidly in high-altitude and cold-cold regions such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang and Tibet. Private companies and individuals invest in greenhouse cherry production in these areas to improve fruit quality and early harvest.
Breed Update:
In traditional producing provinces such as Liaoning and Shandong, cherry farmers are actively replacing old varieties with varieties that are popular in the market, such as Russia No. 8 instead of red light. Other popular varieties include Beauty Early, Qizao, Jiahong, Rainier, Black Pearl, and Brooks. Chinese farmers prefer early or medium-maturing varieties, while late-maturing varieties such as Lapins, Regina and Kordia have a relatively small market share.
Quality Improvement:
In recent years, the quality of domestic cherries has generally improved, especially the cherries produced in greenhouses compete with imported cherries in taste, color, size and freshness. However, since most cherries are grown by smallholder farmers on scattered plots of 0.1 to 1.0 hectares, the quality varies. Many farmers use plant growth hormone to increase fruit size, but this can lead to fruit deformities. In order to extend the shelf life, it is common practice to pick early, but this will reduce the taste (sugar level) of the fruit. Domestic cherry producers often do not have facilities for pre-cooling and cold chain transportation, which explains the extremely low volume of cherry exports from China.
Price situation
Cherry prices
Price Fluctuations:
Cherry prices have declined significantly in the 2024/25 marketing year due to weak demand and increased supply. For example, the price of 10-12 grams of Beauty Early cherries fell by 25% year-on-year, to about 30 yuan per kilogram. The smaller fruit due to the drought also put pressure on cherry prices. However, prices for high-quality cherries (large, hard, dark and sweet) remain firm, with top-quality cherries produced in greenhouses selling for up to $40 per kilogram.
Prices of peaches and nectarines
Price Expectations:
Early-maturing varieties of peaches and nectarines do not taste good due to their shorter growing period, but they are more expensive. It is expected that when large quantities of peaches enter the market, the price will be lower than the previous year's level. In general, early-ripening peaches are more expensive, and yellow and donut peaches are usually more expensive than traditional peaches.
Consumption
Consumption of peaches and nectarines
Consumer Trends:
Consumption of peaches and nectarines remained stable due to ample supply. The economic downturn has made consumers more cautious when buying fruits, especially in the mid-to-high-end consumer group, which still prefers organic peaches and imported peaches. Despite the significant downgrade in overall consumption, demand for some high-quality varieties such as yellow donut peaches and mini nectarines remains strong. Consumers have a soft spot for peaches and nectarines with high sugar content.
Consumption Methods:
Most peaches and nectarines are consumed fresh, and about 20% of peaches are processed into canned food, followed by fruit juices, dried fruits, and fruit wine. China has traditionally been an exporter of canned peaches from the United States and Japan.
Cherry consumption
Consumption Growth:
The consumption of cherries is expected to continue to increase as supply improves. Demand for imported cherries, especially during the Chinese New Year period, is strong, but the economic downturn has also had a negative impact on cherry consumption, especially the gift market. Consumers tend to buy medium-sized, more cost-effective cherries. While the overall supply increase will put pressure on cherry prices, high-quality cherries, including imported cherries, can still attract affluent consumers.
Trade situation
import
Cherry imports:
China's cherry imports are expected to continue to grow in the future, mainly due to increased supply from Chile and increased marketing efforts. Chilean cherries benefit from specialized transport vessels and designated ports, allowing them to enter the Chinese market faster and more efficiently. Imports of U.S. cherries are also expected to increase, benefiting from increased U.S. production and improved fruit quality.
Import of peaches and nectarines:
Imports of peaches and nectarines are expected to rebound in the 2024/25 marketing year, especially for out-of-season southern hemisphere supplies such as Chile and Australia. Chile has been granted market access for all fruit categories exported to China.
outlet
Exports of peaches and nectarines:
China's exports of peaches and nectarines are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand in the surrounding market.
Policy implications
Packaging standards
Implementation of the new standard:
The national standard, which will come into effect on April 1, 2024, restricts the excessive packaging of fresh edible agricultural products, with no more than four layers of packaging and no more than 15% of the packaging cost to the selling price.
Trade policy
Chile and Kazakhstan:
China's General Administration of Customs has announced phytosanitary requirements for the import of fresh peaches and apricots from Chile and Kazakhstan, making Chile the first country to export all fruit categories to China.
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