China Oilseed Products Annual Report (2024)

China is one of the world's largest consumers and importers of oilseeds. The oilseed market includes soybeans, rapeseed, peanuts, cottonseeds, and sunflower seeds, which play an important role in China's agriculture and food industries.

Soybean production

Production Forecast:

According to the report, soybean production in 24/25 is expected at 19.6 million tonnes with 9.95 million hectares planted. This forecast is lower than the previous season's estimate, mainly due to lower soybean prices and farmers' margins in 24/25. The report notes that low soybean prices and farmers' profits in 24/25 were the main factors contributing to the modest decline in planted area in 24/25, despite China's continued efforts to subsidize soybean planting.

Government Subsidy:

To support soybean farming, the government offers a variety of subsidies in Heilongjiang. In 2024, Heilongjiang's soybean subsidy will be 5,250 yuan per hectare. In addition, there is a subsidy of 750 yuan per hectare for "large row spacing and high-density planting" and 2,250 yuan per hectare for "crop rotation". These subsidies are designed to increase planting incentives and stabilize soybean production.

Market:

The report mentions a significant decline in domestic soybean prices from the 24/25 harvest onwards. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average domestic soybean price from October 2023 to February 2024 was 4,806 yuan per tonne, down 15% from the previous year. The decline in prices has mainly affected farmers' planting enthusiasm and profits.

Climatic conditions and technical improvements:

The Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that soil moisture, the use of high-speed precision seeders, improvements in agricultural standardization, and strict enforcement of these standards have greatly improved this year's planting process. Planting in Heilongjiang province is completed by the end of May 2024, with a total planted area exceeding the government's target of 52,500 hectares. Heilongjiang Province has increased soybean yield through bean inoculation technology and "large row spacing dense planting" technology.

Rapeseed production

Production Forecast:

The report slightly revised upwards the forecast for rapeseed production in 24/25 to 15.8 million tonnes with 7.4 million hectares planted. This is up from the previous year's 15.4 million tonnes. Rapeseed production in the 2023/24 marketing year was 16.3 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from the previous year, with 7.367 million hectares planted.

Planting & Harvesting Time:

Rapeseed cultivation in China is divided into two types: winter and summer. Winter rapeseed is planted from November to December and harvested from April to May of the following year, accounting for more than 90% of the total production, mainly in Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Guizhou and Jiangsu provinces. Summer rapeseed is planted in June and harvested in September, mainly in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, accounting for less than 10% of the total production.

Market:

Rapeseed prices have been slowly declining since the harvest and were about 6,150 yuan per ton in mid-June 2024, down about 4% from early May and 6.9% year-on-year. The increase in low-priced imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil has had an impact on local prices.

Peanut production

Production Forecast:

The report maintained its forecast for peanut production in 24/25 at 18.1 million tonnes, with plantings largely stable. Peanut production in 24/25 was 19.2 million tonnes, up from 18.3 million tonnes in the previous year. Despite price fluctuations, peanuts are more profitable than cotton, corn and soybeans in most peanut-producing regions.

Pricing Trends:

Peanut prices declined after the harvest in the 23/24 marketing year, but recovered slightly in the 2024 planting month. The fluctuation of peanut prices mainly affects farmers' planting decisions and profits.

Profit Comparison:

According to Chinese industry data, Henan's peanut profit in the 23/24 marketing year was between 10,500 yuan and 16,500 yuan per hectare, while corn profit was around 12,000 yuan per hectare. In Liaoning, the profit for peanuts is 7,500 yuan per hectare, while the profit for corn is 6,000 yuan per hectare.

Cottonseed production

Production Forecast:

The report maintained its forecast for cottonseed production in 24/25 at 9.3 million tonnes. There was a slight decline in cotton plantings, which was offset by higher yields. The China Cotton Association forecasts a 24/25 market year for a 2.4% year-on-year decline in cotton acreage and a 3% decline in cotton production.

Planting:

Nationwide 24/25 cotton planting is on schedule. As of mid-June 2024, cotton growth is normal across the country. Cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to remain stable, with about 2.33 million hectares planted.

Sunflower seed production

Production Forecast:

The 2022/23 marketing year produced 1.74 million tonnes of sunflower seeds, with a smaller planted area. The report adjusts the area and production estimates for MY 23/24, which are expected to remain stable in MY 24/25.

Oilseed crushing and consumption

Crush Forecast:

The report forecasts a total oilseed crush of 13.63 million tonnes in 24/25, down from the previous forecast of 13.69 million tonnes, mainly due to lower sunflower seed production. Soybean crush is forecast at 98 million tonnes, up slightly from 97.5 million tonnes in 24/25.

Feed requirements:

Feed production in the 24/25 marketing year is expected to recover from the relatively low levels in the 23/24 marketing year. High production of pork, eggs and aquatic products will drive a modest increase in feed demand, which in turn will drive oilseed crush demand.

trade

Soybean Imports:

Soybean imports in 24/25 are forecast at 103 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous season. Steady imports are based on a slight increase in crush demand, with bumper soybean harvests expected in Brazil and Argentina leading to high stocks in the 24/25 marketing year.

Rapeseed Imports:

Rapeseed imports in 24/25 are forecast at 4 million tonnes, up from 3.5 million tonnes in MY 23/24.

Peanut Imports:

Peanut imports in 24/25 are forecast at 900,000 tonnes, slightly lower than the previous estimate. Imports are expected to recover due to lower domestic production.

Price trends and market demand

Price Fluctuations:

Prices of major oilseed crops such as soybeans and peanuts declined in the 23/24 marketing year, which negatively impacted farmers' planting decisions and earnings. Low prices have led to a decline in acreage and production, but may also contribute to an increase in consumer demand.

Soybean production and planted area: Soybean production in 24/25 is estimated at 19.6 million tonnes on 9.95 million hectares. Pay attention to the impact of price fluctuations on acreage and yield.

Rapeseed production and imports: Rapeseed production in 24/25 is estimated at 15.8 million tonnes and imports at 4 million tonnes. Focus on the impact of government subsidies and international market prices on rapeseed cultivation and imports.

Peanut production and profitability: Peanut production in 24/25 is estimated at 18.1 million tonnes, with higher margins for peanuts than other crops. Pay attention to peanut price fluctuations and import dynamics.

Feed requirements:

In 24/25, a total of 13.63 million tonnes of oilseeds and 98 million tonnes of soybeans were crushed. Focus on the driving effect of increased feed demand on crush volume.

With the increase in the production of pork, eggs, and aquatic products, the demand for feed is also increasing. This demand is driving crush growth for soybeans and other oilseeds, as soybean meal is the main feed ingredient.

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