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Market Overview
Powell said that there is no need to wait for inflation to fall below 2% before cutting interest rates, and the "dove sound" strengthened the market's bets on starting interest rate cuts in September, and European and American stocks and bonds rose together.
For the first time in S&P history, the S&P rose above 5,600. Big tech stocks led the U.S. stock market to rise rapidly at the end of the session, with major indexes closing up more than 1%, and the S&P rising for seven consecutive days for the longest record this year, and the Nasdaq hitting new highs for at least six days. A number of technology and chip stocks hit new highs, Tesla rose for eleven consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of more than 44% on the 11th, and Nvidia rose 2.7% to approach the highest. TSMC, Apple, Google hit new highs. Baidu rose another 2.7%, and Xpeng Motors rose 7.5%.
The pound hit a one-month high. Oil prices halted a three-day losing streak. Gold and silver rose 1% intraday, and the gains narrowed significantly.
During the Asian session, A-shares collectively closed down, the concept of unmanned driving set off a rising tide, and Baidu's Hong Kong stocks rose 10%.
News
China's CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year in June, food and automobile prices fell widen, PPI fell 0.8% year-on-year, and pork prices rose sharply month-on-month. According to the analysis, the "K-shaped recovery" of inflation continues, and the timing of PPI turning positive may be slower than market expectations.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved the suspension of securities lending business in accordance with the law to further strengthen the countercyclical adjustment of securities lending and lending. China Securities Regulatory Commission: Further strengthen the adaptability and pertinence of the supervision of programmatic trading, and reduce the negative impact of programmatic trading.
Powell: You don't have to wait for inflation to fall to 2% to cut interest rates, but confidence in curbing inflation is not enough, the neutral rate has risen, there is still a long way to go to shrink the balance sheet, and I haven't talked with Biden for two years.
Foreign media: Pelosi said that Biden should be encouraged to make his own decision on whether to continue to run, "because time is running out."
Driven by AI demand, TSMC's sales in the second quarter exceeded market expectations, rising 40.1% year-on-year; TSMC 2nm, trial production will begin next week.
Goldman Sachs research director criticized the "AI bubble": too much investment, too little return, bigger than the 2000 bubble.
The market closes
U.S. stocks: The Dow rose 1.09%, the S&P 500 rose 1.02%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.18%.
European stocks: The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.91%. Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 0.94%. France's CAC 40 index closed up 0.86%. United Kingdom's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.66%.
A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.68%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.06%.
Bond market: The yield on the benchmark 10-year United States Treasury fell 1.57 basis points to 4.2802%. The yield on the two-year Treasury note fell 0.43 basis points to 4.6221%.
Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for August delivery closed up $0.69, or nearly 0.85%, at $82.10 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for September delivery closed up $0.42, or more than 0.49%, at $85.08 a barrel. Spot gold rose 0.30% to $2,371.26 an ounce. London tin closed up more than 1.9%, London zinc rose about 1.2%, and London nickel fell more than 1.4%.
Highlights
Global blockbuster
China's CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year in June, while food and auto prices fell widen, and PPI fell 0.8% year-on-year.
- In June 2024, the national consumer price rose by 0.2% year-on-year, and the price of pork rose by 18.1% year-on-year, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.21 percentage points, and decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, the price of pork rose by 11.4%, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.14 percentage points. The national industrial producer prices fell by 0.8 percent year-on-year, and decreased by 0.2 percent from the previous month, up 0.2 percent from the previous month.
- Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the "K-shaped recovery" of inflation continues, and the timing of PPI turning positive may be slower than market expectations. The PPI reading has been negative precisely because of the impact of capacity utilization, and the follow-up "dual carbon policy" strengthens or promotes upstream prices, but the downstream capacity utilization rate may continue to decline in downstream, and it is expected that the PPI year-on-year turning positive will be in November, slower than the market expectation in the third quarter.
- Galaxy Securities pointed out that the core CPI rose moderately in June, and the improvement of PPI requires policy efforts. The general decline in food prices other than pork drove the CPI down month-on-month in June. The core price maintained a moderate year-on-year increase, and the effective demand continued to recover. On the whole, the rebound in pig prices, the low base effect and the acceleration of the pace of policy efforts will constitute the three main lines of the continued moderate recovery of prices in the second half of the year.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved the suspension of securities lending business in accordance with the law to further strengthen the countercyclical adjustment of securities lending and lending. Approve the stock exchange to raise the margin ratio for securities lending and borrowing from no less than 80% to 100%, and the margin ratio for private securities investment funds to participate in securities lending and borrowing from not less than 100% to 120%, which will be implemented from July 22, 2024.
China Securities Regulatory Commission: Further strengthen the adaptability and pertinence of the supervision of programmatic trading, and reduce the negative impact of programmatic trading. The first is to guide the stock exchange to introduce detailed implementation rules for the management of programmatic transactions as soon as possible, and refine and improve the specific arrangements. The second is to guide the stock exchange to publish and implement the programmatic abnormal transaction monitoring standards as soon as possible, delineate the "red line" of programmatic transaction monitoring, and further promote the frequency and speed reduction of programmatic trading, especially high-frequency trading. The third is to strengthen communication and coordination with the Hong Kong side, and step up the formulation and issuance of guidelines for the reporting of programmatic transactions of northbound funds, so as to apply the same regulatory standards to northbound investors as domestic investors. Fourth, it is necessary to clarify the differentiated fee arrangement for high-frequency quantitative trading. Fifth, we will continue to strengthen the monitoring and supervision of trading behaviors.
Powell: You don't have to wait for inflation to fall to 2% to cut interest rates, but confidence in curbing inflation is not enough, the neutral rate has risen, and there is still a long way to go to shrink the balance sheet. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed doesn't need to wait until inflation falls below 2% to cut interest rates, because if you wait too long, inflation could fall too low, and cutting rates too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment, which is not what the Fed wants to see. Powell also said that he had never had substantive communication with United States President Joe Biden in the past two years and had not previously found him to have mental or cognitive decline.
Foreign media: Pelosi said that Biden should be encouraged to make his own decision on whether to continue to run, "because time is running out." According to the Globe, Pelosi also said that "we all encouraged him to make a decision because time is running out." "I want him to do what he decides to do." Pelosi added, "Whatever he decides, we will support it." ”
Driven by AI demand, TSMC's sales in the second quarter exceeded market expectations, rising 40.1% year-on-year; TSMC 2nm, trial production will begin next week
- According to the analysis, TSMC's growth is mainly due to the recent strong demand in the field of artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. The company's cumulative sales this year reached NT$1,266.15 billion, an increase of 28.0% over the same period last year. According to media reports, TSMC will produce 2nm semiconductors at its Baoshan factory in Shinjuku Science Park in northern Taiwan next week. The third quarter entered the trial production stage, earlier than the market expected, which was interpreted by the outside world as to speed up the pace before mass production to ensure a stable yield.
Goldman Sachs research director criticized the "AI bubble": too much investment, too little return, bigger than the 2000 bubble. The Goldman Sachs report pointed out that the actual impact of AI on the economy in the next decade will be limited, AI will only increase United States productivity by 0.5%, GDP by only 0.9%, which will lead to tens of billions of dollars invested may be wasted, and the trillions of dollars in market value obtained by the "seven sisters" of the US stock market may be the largest bubble in history.
Domestic macro
The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium on venture capital, and the institution looks forward to strengthening policy coordination such as state-owned assets assessment and fault tolerance mechanism. Representatives of 9 venture capital institutions, including SMIC Juyuan, Shanghai Science and Technology Venture Capital Group, Guoxin Fund, and Tongchuangweiye, attended the meeting.
Shanghai has released 16 measures to help the development of the new city: carry out large-scale applications such as smart taxis and smart buses. In Qingpu, Nanhui and other qualified new cities, we will pilot the construction of low-altitude economic infrastructure, and support commercial applications in scenarios such as logistics and distribution, characteristic cultural tourism, emergency rescue, smart cities, and low-altitude commuting.
Domestic companies
"Pig Brother" Muyuan shares are expected to turn around in the first half of the year, with a single-quarter profit of more than 3 billion yuan. Muyuan shares, Tang Renshen, Dabeinong and other listed pig companies have announced that in the first half of the year, they will turn losses into profits or reduce losses. Kaiyuan Securities expects that the supply of live pigs will continue to shrink after August 2024 and be lower than the same period in 2023.
The net profit of alcoholic liquor in the first half of the year fell by nearly seventy.
- Jiujiu Liquor released the 2024 semi-annual performance forecast, which is expected to achieve revenue of about 1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of about 35%; The net profit was 1.1-130 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.93%-69.19%.
- How do you view the path and impact of the liquor consumption tax reform? Soochow Securities believes that the consumption tax reform aims to balance the distribution of fiscal revenue, or will promote measures such as moving the collection link back and transferring it to the local government. In the short term, there is a possibility that the collection of liquor consumption tax will be postponed, but the possibility of a significant increase in the tax rate is low.
The photovoltaic involution is serious, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has taken decisive action to improve the standard. In the future, photovoltaic expansion can be done, but it is necessary to pay 30% of the money first, and to meet the requirements of continuously improving technical indicators and energy consumption. Those photovoltaic companies that do not have technical advantages, cost advantages, and scale advantages are really going to be blocked out this time.
After photovoltaics, the lithium salt faucet also began to lose heavily, and the profits of Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium both turned into losses in the first half of the year. Lithium mining companies have become the hardest hit by losses, and only enterprises with high lithium self-supply rates can barely maintain profits, while salt lake lithium extraction manufacturers are showing a different situation, and even profits have increased simultaneously under the substantial increase in sales.
The former 100 billion car-making star Aion has lost its color. In June this year, Aion sold 35,027 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 22.18%. In the first half of this year, Aion's cumulative sales were 177366, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%, and Aion's annual sales target of 700,000 units is now only 25.34%.
The richest man in the Northeast once again came to the rescue of HNA. Fangda Carbon, a company of Liaoning Fangda Department, announced that it intends to use its own funds of no less than 60 million yuan and no more than 119 million yuan to increase its holdings of A shares of HNA Holdings in the next six months. The actual controller of Fangda Carbon is Fang Wei. Fang Wei's move this time is to avoid HNA from going to the situation of delisting at face value.
Overseas macro
On the eve of the release of the heavy CPI in United States, the 10-year US bond auction performed well. The winning interest rate for the 10-year Treasury auction was 4.276%, significantly lower than the 4.438% in June. As the "receiver" who undertakes all the unpurchased supply, the allocation ratio of primary dealers is only 11.5%, highlighting the strong real demand. The analysis confirmed that the market did not have any concerns about Thursday's United States CPI data.
U.S. stocks have repeatedly reached new highs, and Goldman Sachs macro traders are afraid: bad news may really become bad news, what to do if it is too late to cut interest rates? The six-week window is just around the corner, with the last two weeks of July in focus, during which about 30% of the STOXX 600 and S&P companies reported earnings each week. A lot of factors have been factored into the price, especially the big blue chips in the United States, and any earnings disappointment can be severely penalized.
United States traders are eyeing the key indicator, the Sam Rule, on what happens next for U.S. stocks. The "Sam Rule" has become a key indicator in the market today, triggering a recession when the three-month average increase in the unemployment rate is 0.50 percentage points above the lowest value in the past 12 months. This law accurately predicts the recession since 1970. The value of the Sam rule in June was 0.43, approaching the warning line of 0.5.
India's version of "stock madness": retail investors are crazy about new, young people don't want to buy a house and just want to speculate in stocks. The investment enthusiasm of India retail investors is "unstoppable", and the concept of "high entry and low selling" has been broken, and they have begun to boldly buy the bottom, and the funds that originally flowed into the property market are pouring into the stock market.
OPEC monthly report: There may be oil supply shortages in the coming months, and Russia and other countries have not yet fulfilled their production cuts. Despite Russia's significant cuts in crude oil production in June, the country's crude oil supply to Iraq and Kazakhstan is still more than 100,000 barrels per day higher than the quota set at the beginning of this year. OPEC expects oil supply shortages in the coming months and in 2025 to a greater extent than the United States EIA projected this week. OPEC forecasts demand for OPEC+ crude oil to reach 43.6 million b/d in the third quarter, well above the group's current output.
Overseas companies
AI services boost demand, iPhone 16 shipments will increase by 10% in the second half of the year, and Apple will hit a new high in intraday trading.
Apples are soaring, but Berkshire is stagnating. Apple's stock price hit a new high, and Berkshire, which holds a heavy position in Apple, has risen by about 12.59% this year, and has also underperformed the S&P 500 index in the same period. Based on the book value of Berkshire's Class A shares of $425,000 per share on June 30, it currently has a price-to-book ratio of about 1.45, which is on par with the five-year average, the analysis said. But in February this year, the price-to-book ratio briefly exceeded 1.6.
Venture capitalists are also stocking up on GPUs, with a16z planning to buy more than 20,000 GPUs, similar in size to Musk's xAI, specifically for leasing to AI startups. For the future of GPUs, the VC circle is split, with a16z and Sequoia on their side. a16z is optimistic about the future demand for GPUs, and frantically hoards and increases bets; Sequoia Capital, on the other hand, is more cautious, believing that the peak of GPU supply shortage has passed, and it is easy to lose money if it continues to increase investment.
AMD以6.65ࠆ塾元獙收 "I'm going to go back to the
Antitrust scrutiny intensified, and Microsoft and Apple gave up their seats on OpenAI's board of directors. Both Microsoft and Apple have dropped plans to serve on OpenAI's board of directors, but the latest news shows that the waiver still does not dispel antitrust concerns from United States regulators, who are currently investigating Microsoft's investment in OpenAI.
"Weight loss miracle drug" growth space to be discounted? The study found that 75% of patients discontinued the drug within two years. Only a quarter of United States patients continue to use Novo Nordisk's Wegovy or Ozempic weight loss drugs after two years. The analysis also showed a steady decline in patients' drug use over time.
The situation escalated, and the Samsung Electronics Union announced an indefinite all-out strike. Samsung may be at risk of production disruptions.
Samsung launched its first smart ring, Galaxy Ring monitors health throughout the day, and AI analyzes sleep.
Industry/Concept
1. Oil suit| The National Energy Administration recently organized a meeting to promote the work of vigorously improving oil and gas exploration and development in 2024, and the meeting emphasized that it is necessary to focus on the construction of a new energy system and the high-quality development of the oil and gas industry, and scientifically plan the layout and tasks of oil and gas exploration and development. It is necessary to focus on key basins, concentrate on three-dimensional exploration, build production on a large scale and efficiently, and accelerate the establishment of oil and gas exploration and development bases. Guided by scientific and technological innovation, we should continue to carry out the four major areas of "two deep, one non-old and one old".
Comments: Minsheng Securities believes that the international oil market as a whole will be in a state of balance in 2024, and international geopolitics and the policies of central banks will have a greater impact on crude oil prices. From the demand side, the market expects that the European and American central banks are about to cut interest rates, which will boost crude oil demand. In addition, in 2023, the total capital expenditure of PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC will be 275.3 billion yuan, 176.8 billion yuan and 127.9 billion yuan respectively, all of which are at a historically high level. CNOOC's project to increase reserves and production has clarified the new goal of "domestic oil production of 60 million tons in 2030 and domestic natural gas production of 40 billion cubic meters in 2035", which also provides a guarantee for the sustainable development of CNOOC project.
2、VR| According to the WeChat official account of Douyin Group, Douyin VR live broadcast was officially launched. It is reported that at present, in addition to Douyin, Kuaishou, Channels and other platforms have also carried out VR video/VR live broadcast related explorations.
Comments: The analysis believes that VR live broadcast is a combination of virtual reality technology and live broadcast technology, different from traditional live broadcast limited by the screen and equipment, watching live broadcast through VR equipment in the online virtual space, can display the live environment in 720 degrees, and the viewer can choose the content to watch independently and experience the scene immersively. 5G network technology + VR panoramic live broadcast, providing professional live broadcast services for large-scale events, news events, education and medical care. With the popularity of lightweight VR panoramic live streaming, more live streaming scene experiences will be improved.
3. Germanium| ACCORDING TO SMM DATA, THE PRICE OF GERMANIUM INGOTS WAS 12,200 YUAN PER KG AS OF JULY 5, A RECORD HIGH SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 2006. In addition to large enterprises, the raw material inventory of small and medium-sized companies has become tighter recently, and the actual market quotation has reached about 15,000 yuan/KG recently.
Comments: According to the analysis, it is predicted that between 2023 and 2026, the compound annual growth rate of global germanium demand will reach 16.4%, of which the growth in the satellite field is particularly prominent, with a compound annual growth rate of 62%, far exceeding other application fields. At the same time, global germanium supply growth is relatively limited, with a projected CAGR of only 5.6% from 2024 to 2026. The supply-demand imbalance is becoming increasingly severe, and the global germanium supply-demand gap is expected to widen to 43.2 tonnes by 2026.
4. Solid-state battery According to the Daily Economic News, United States scientists recently developed the world's first anode-free sodium solid-state battery. This result has led to the development of inexpensive, fast-charging, high-capacity batteries for use in electric vehicles and the power grid. The research team believes that the newly developed sodium battery has a stable structure and can be cycled hundreds of times. The removal of the anode and the replacement of lithium with sodium makes the production process of the new battery more economical and environmentally friendly, while the innovative solid-state design also improves the safety of the battery.
Comments: Although sodium-ion batteries have low energy density, their cost advantages, safety and high and low temperature performance bring potential application prospects, according to the analysis. Compared with lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion batteries have the advantages of abundant resource reserves, low cost, and fast charging.
5. Unmanned driving According to the Daily Economic News, the number of unmanned orders for Radish Express in Wuhan has ushered in explosive growth recently, with a peak of more than 20 singles per day, which is equivalent to the average daily order volume of taxi drivers. And the data shows that in Wuhan, the fare for a 10-kilometer journey is 4 yuan to 16 yuan, and the ordinary online car-hailing is 18 yuan to 30 yuan. Wuhan citizens are generally satisfied with the travel service of fully driverless vehicles, and the user satisfaction evaluation of the Radish Express APP reaches 4.9 points, of which 5 points are full of positive scores, accounting for 94.19%. In addition to Wuhan, Radish Express has also carried out fully unmanned autonomous driving service tests in Beijing, Chongqing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, and opened manned test operation services in 11 cities.
Comments: According to the analysis, in January this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Ministry of Transport decided to jointly carry out the pilot work of the application of "vehicle-road-cloud integration" for intelligent networked vehicles, with a pilot period of 2024-2026. On July 3, the list of the first batch of 20 pilot cities (consortiums) for the application of "vehicle-road-cloud integration" was officially announced. This marks that ICVs have shifted from small-scale testing and verification to a new stage of rapid technology evolution and large-scale development. Driverless taxis will become one of the autonomous driving scenarios with the largest market space. According to some institutions, by 2030, the global market space for driverless taxis will exceed 2 trillion US dollars.
6、Wi-Fi| 2024 marks the 25th anniversary of Wi-Fi technology. According to a report by Fundamental Business Insights, the Wi-Fi chipset market is expected to grow at a CAGR of more than 4.4% from 2023 to 2030, reaching a market size of $34.5 billion by 2033. Currently, Wi-Fi 6 or Wi-Fi 6E are the main components of Wi-Fi device shipments. However, with the Wi-Fi Alliance certifying Wi-Fi 7-enabled devices in January this year, the penetration rate of Wi-Fi 7 technology is expected to increase in the future.
Comments: A number of market research institutions believe that 2024 will be the first year of commercial use of Wi-Fi 7 technology. Since the second quarter, chip manufacturers, including MediaTek and Realtek, have accelerated the layout of the Wi-Fi 7 track and increased orders for Wi-Fi 7 main chips and RF modules to cope with the demand brought by the future market outbreak. Enterprises in the Wi-Fi industry chain will also usher in room for growth.
7、PCB| Kingboard laminate, a leader in the copper clad laminate industry, rose nearly 6% on July 10. Citi recently released a research report saying that it will start a 90-day upward catalytic observation of the company, because the company is expected to release Yingxi in mid-July; The company's profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of this year is expected to rise by 82% year-on-year to 768 million yuan, with a target price of HK$12.5, and the compound annual growth rate of earnings per share is expected to be 60% from this year to 2026.
Comments: Since the beginning of this year, the PCB industry has been accelerating the pace of recovery, thanks to strong demand in areas such as AI servers, 5G, cloud computing and automobiles, showing atypical off-season characteristics and a positive development trend for the industry. The transfer of global PCB production capacity and the downstream demand of the huge electronic end market have made China quickly become the largest center of global PCB product manufacturing.
8. Airport| Recently, Shanghai Airport announced that it is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2024 will be 710 million yuan to 870 million yuan, an increase of 578 million yuan to 738 million yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of 435.87% to 556.63% year-on-year; Baiyun Airport expects a net profit of 404 million yuan to 494 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 155.67%-212.48%. In addition, Spring Airlines also announced that it expects net profit in the first half of the year to increase by 54%-60% year-on-year. Since 2024, the domestic and foreign travel markets have shown a significant recovery trend compared with the same period last year, which has led to a significant improvement in the main business of aviation.
Comments: According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of civil aviation, by 2025, the development targets of the total transport turnover and passenger traffic of the mainland's civil aviation industry will be 175 billion ton-kilometers and 930 million passengers, respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 17.0% and 17.2% from 2020 to 2025; The average number of annual flights per capita of mainland residents will increase from 0.47 in 2019 to 0.67, and there is still great room for improvement in the penetration rate of mainland aviation, and there is still great growth potential in the civil aviation industry. In the first six days of July, the average daily domestic passenger volume was about 60,000 passengers higher than the same period in 2023, an increase of about 3%, and the average daily passenger flow of international and regional passenger traffic increased by 120,000 passengers compared with the same period in 23, an increase of about 57%. The average daily passenger flow of the civil aviation market is high, and the average daily volume in the same period of 23 years is about 180,000 passengers, showing strong demand during the summer transportation period. With students taking summer vacations everywhere, the aviation market is expected to continue to hit new highs.
Today's news preview
United States CPI for June.
United States initial jobless claims last week.
United States government budget for June.
The President of the Atlanta Fed spoke.
Germany CPI for June.
The IEA publishes its monthly crude oil market report.
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