Just recently, the latest data on wheat production in 2024 were released: the total output was 138.22 million tons, an increase of 3.658 million tons or 2.7% over 2023. There are two important meanings in this group of numbers that need to be faced:
1. The increase in wheat yield is real, and there is no point in shouting about reducing yield;
2. The essence of wheat storage increase is the coping strategy proposed because of the expected increase in yield.
3. Wheat prices will definitely not have a chance to return to the market and prices of previous years.
Because of this, the district-level reserve grain in Shunyi District, Beijing, sold 20,000 tons of rotating wheat in 2019~2021, with a floor price of 2,400 yuan, a transaction price of 2,420~2,430 yuan, and a total unit price of 1.21~1.215 yuan.
It's not over yet, Henan Province trader grain wheat, Shangqiu Yongyong City, Ancun Town, Oriental Grain and Oil Company bids to sell 7,800 tons of mixed wheat in 2023, with a reserve price of 2,340 yuan, a transaction price of 2,380 yuan, and a total unit price of 1.19 yuan.
Do you think that's the end of it? At the same time, there is still a large amount of carry-over inventory of Chen Mai in 2023.
All kinds of information are telling the market that the possibility of wheat wanting to rise sharply is very small.
Hello friends, today is July 14, 2024, have you found out what products are the best-selling in the grain industry in North China this year? Wheat or corn. Neither, it's "aluminum phosphide". What does it mean?
Too many people are ready to play with the market for a long time. And with such consistency, is the wheat market healthy? Of course not. There must be circulation to be healthy, otherwise sooner or later everyone will enter the pit together.
And the current market is also verifying what the editor said in the early stage, and it is basically a dream to want the price of wheat to rise from the beginning of the listing. With the continuous decline in the prices of flour enterprises in the past few days, the grain merchants who were still "arrogant" a month ago began to relax, and the circulation began to improve.
Many people have said that due to the high degree of price transparency, there is no price difference in circulation, which is also a big headache for grassroots grain points and traders this year.
But let's think about it differently: Why are the peasants in Henan peasants, but the peasants in Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places are not peasants, so why do they have to have price depressions? Why should there be a price difference for the same amount of work?
Isn't it shouting for common prosperity every day? For the time being, if the price is high or not, should the sweat of farmers in various provinces be the same price?
To get back to the point, there seems to be no connection between corn and wheat, but there is a connection, the expression of the crepe: broken bones and tendons, inextricably linked - corn prices will continue to rise and fall in the short term, but they are all a "box market", which leads to the same situation in the wheat market.
If you want to see a sharp decline, no, but it will fall; If you want to see a large price increase, no, but it will also rebound. It's a toss back and forth.
The above personal views are for reference only, do not represent correctness, and are not used as an investment basis.
The latest wheat purchase price of flour enterprises in China on July 14, 2024
Shandong Youth Aid Food: 1.25 yuan, 1 point.
Shandong Jining Lisheng: 1.25 yuan, down 5%.
Shandong developed flour Liaocheng: 1.23 yuan, down 1 point.
Shandong developed flour Weifang: 1.25 yuan, down 5 centimeters.
Henan Yanjin Keming: 1.245 yuan, down 5%.
Henan Shangqiu Wudeli: 1.25 yuan, down 5 percent.
Jiangsu Suqian Wudeli: 1.25 yuan (with tickets), down 5 cents.
Anhui Bozhou Wudeli: 1.25 yuan, down 5%.
Jinsha River, Bozhou, Anhui Province: 1.235 yuan, 3 cents.
Xinjiang Xinliang Huamai flour: Pumai first class 1.25 yuan, second class 1.24 yuan, third class 1.23 yuan, Xinmai 18 and Xindong 53 first class 1.29 yuan, second class 1.28 yuan, third class 1.27 yuan, Xinmai 22 first class 1.385 yuan, second class 1.375 yuan, third class 1.365 yuan.