Public Offering China Research Group | Dingding
Editing, co-ordinating| Jamie
Crafting | Jessica
After Liu Yuanhai became the "top three" of the public offering year in 2023 with the return of 44.93% of Soochow Mobile Internet A, his results are still quite top-notch this year.
According to the Wind Fund Manager Index, as of July 15, Liu Yuanhai has returned 26.91% of fund management since the beginning of the year, ranking third among the 1,488 partial stock fund managers in the whole market. Among them, Soochow Mobile Internet A has returned nearly 30% since the beginning of the year.
Over time, his overall results are also good. As of July 15, 2024, its representative work Soochow Mobile Internet A, which began to be managed in April 2016, has a return of 210.37% and an annualized return of 14.76%. The Soochow New Trend value line, which it began to manage in April 2019, has a return of 247.61% and an annualized return of 27.03%.
Liu Yuanhai is good at investing in technology stocks, and in 2023, he not only keenly captured the phenomenal product ChatGPT, but also firmly grasped the investment opportunities. His analysis of the judgment of technology stocks is worth perusing and tracking for a long time. In his view, the performance of technology stocks in the A-share market in 2023 is likely to have just begun, and it may be even more exciting after 2024. In the next 5 and 10 years, the market performance of technology stocks in the A-share market is worth looking forward to. In the quarterly report of the fund under management, he said that the current A-share electronic semiconductors may be in a triple bottom moment: the bottom of profits, the bottom of valuation and the bottom of position.
Tuopu Group has newly entered the top 10 heavy stocks
In the first quarter, the top 10 heavy stocks of Soochow Mobile Internet A were Desay SV, Zhongji Innolight, Weir Shares, Luxshare Precision, Kingsoft Office, Xin Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd., Crystal Optoelectronics, and Tuopu Group. The market capitalization of the top 10 holdings accounted for 78.93% of the fund's net value.
Most of the holdings of the top 10 heavy stocks have increased compared with the previous quarter, and there are obvious traces of increasing positions.
From the perspective of individual stocks, Zhuosheng Micro withdrew from the top ten heavy stocks, and Tuopu Group newly entered the top ten heavy stocks. Tuopu Group is a Tier0.5 platform supplier of intelligent driving track, and the robot electric drive actuator and rotary actuator developed by the company have been sent to customers for many times.
From the perspective of industry, most of the top ten heavy stocks belong to the information technology industry, reflecting the characteristics of Liu Yuanhai's highly concentrated holdings.
Although the information technology industry as a whole fell by 8.93% in the first quarter of 2024, many stocks of Liu Yuanhai's heavy positions performed well. For example, Zhongji Innolight rose 38.66% in the first quarter, Xinyisheng rose 35.85% in the first quarter, Tianfu Communication rose 65.29% in the first quarter, Shanghai Electric Co., Ltd. rose 36.44% in the first quarter, and Crystal Optoelectronics rose 12.11% in the first quarter.
Most of the top 10 heavy stocks of Soochow Mobile Internet A have been continuously heavy for 3 to 5 quarters. Among them, Zhongji InnoLight has continued to hold heavy positions for 5 quarters, at 19.33 yuan/share at the end of December 2022 and 112.19 yuan/share at the end of March 2024, an increase of 480.39% in these five quarters.
It can be seen from the above that Liu Yuanhai has a strong ability to select stocks.
It is understood that he selects individual stocks from the three dimensions of "good industry, good company, and good price", and strives to find high-quality stocks in the industry that are in line with the development trend of the times.
A good industry refers to looking for an industry that is in line with the development trend of the times, and the product penetration rate of more than 10% indicates that the industry is likely to enter a period of rapid growth. A good company refers to looking for a reliable company, and whether the management knows and does is one of the important criteria for considering the company. A good price means not only paying attention to PE, but also its market capitalization space.
Hold on to the alpha of the times
Liu Yuanhai likes to take a heavy position in a certain industry for a certain period of time, and does not belong to a balanced allocation fund manager.
For example, in 2018, Liu Yuanhai had a heavy position in pharmaceutical, biotechnology and media, in 2019, he preferred food and beverage and non-bank finance, and after 2020, his position in the electronics sector increased year by year.
His investment philosophy is to "grasp the alpha of the times" and is committed to finding industries that are in line with the development trend of the times.
He believes that there are dominant industries in every era, and these industries are the alpha of the times. It is necessary to match the circle of ability with the times. Only when you have an opportunity in the circle of competence will you make a heavy hand, and only a heavy hand can bring higher returns to the portfolio.
Judging from the operation in recent years, Liu Yuanhai has indeed firmly grasped the alpha of the times.
He has successively grasped the opportunity of "getting on the bus" in the market of new energy and artificial intelligence, and kept up with the trend changes.
In the new energy market in 2020, he bought the leading stock CATL. Soochow Mobile Internet A began to reposition CATL in the third quarter of 2020 for 8 consecutive quarters until the end of the second quarter of 2022. CATL was 93.75 yuan/share at the end of June 2020 and 287.25 yuan/share at the end of June 2022, and the price has been declining since then.
It's not easy to catch the trend. "Buy where no one cares, sell when people are buzzing", it is easy to say, but there are always many people who will rebel.
In this round of artificial intelligence market that will start in 2023, Liu Yuanhai not only accurately judged ChatGPT to be a "killer" product when some investors did not know what it was, but also took the lead in seizing the ChatGPT market, and his performance in 2023 was extraordinary.
Since 2024, he has continued to lay out the artificial intelligence track. As of July 11, the four funds under management, Soochow Mobile Internet A, Soochow New Trend Value Line, Soochow New Energy Vehicle A, and Soochow Jiahe Advantage A, have returned 30.93%, 30.86%, 11.19%, and 29.43% respectively this year.
Optimistic about the future market of technology stocks
Liu Yuanhai is a Ph.D. from Tongji University and joined Soochow Fund Co., Ltd. as early as 2004, starting as a researcher, then as an assistant to a fund manager, and then to a fund manager and deputy general manager of the investment management department. From 2015 to 2016, he briefly left Soochow Fund and then rejoined. He is currently the director of equity investment, the general manager of the equity investment headquarters and the fund manager.
At present, he manages 4 fund products: Soochow Mobile Internet A, Soochow New Trend Value Line, Soochow New Energy Vehicle A, and Soochow Jiahe Advantage A, with a total scale of 4.682 billion yuan.
(As of July 15, 2024)
This veteran of technology stock investment has attracted great attention from the market for his analysis and judgment of the subdivision of technology stocks.
In the quarterly report of Soochow Mobile Internet A, Liu Yuanhai said: "Looking forward to 2024 at the current point in time, we are still relatively optimistic about the investment opportunities in technology stocks that benefit from the development of AGI general artificial intelligence technology, and the development speed of the AI industry in 2024 may exceed our expectations." From the perspective of the main line of investment, in the second quarter, we paid relative attention to the following three major investment opportunities that benefited from the development of AGI technology: AI computing power and applications, electronic semiconductors, and automotive intelligence. ”
In his view, the development of multi-modal large model training and AI applications, computing power demand is still expected to be a relatively certain direction in the next few years, and there may still be investment opportunities in the current direction of AI computing power, but the second quarter will gradually pay attention to investment opportunities in AI applications. Starting from the second quarter, the industry trend of AI mobile phones and AIPC may be more obvious, which is expected to drive consumers to change mobile phones and PCs, so that the strength of the economic recovery of the electronic semiconductor industry in the second half of the year is expected to exceed market expectations.
At the same time, Liu Yuanhai pays close attention to the development of the autonomous driving industry. He said that some leading companies have recently begun to promote their FSDV12.3 fully autonomous driving software on a large scale in North America, and the user experience effect is relatively good, and autonomous driving may usher in a ChatGPT moment. In 2024, the trend of China's automotive intelligence industry is expected to enter the 1-N growth stage from the 0-1 cultivation stage, and the second quarter will still focus on investment opportunities in the automotive intelligence industry.
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