Something that seems to have nothing to do with you and me, but that does concern you and me, is happening.
Author|Wang Yi
Editor|Wang Bo
A 9.6-meter-long heavy-duty van is used to transport a single order of frozen food weighing 17 tons. Starting from Wenshang County, Shandong Province, to Zhucheng City, Shandong Province, unloading, taking the highway, the distance is about 350 kilometers. According to the calculation of 200 yuan per ton of cargo freight, the price quoted by the owner to the driver Master He is 3,400 yuan.
What about the cost? There are two large rigid expenses for freight transportation: tolls and fuel costs. The toll fee for the expressway is 1.7 yuan per kilometer, which is about 600 yuan as a whole, and the fuel cost is about 1,140 yuan for a 9.6-meter fully loaded cargo, burning 42 liters of diesel fuel per 100 kilometers, and the fuel cost is about 1,140 yuan according to the price of 7.6 yuan for one liter of diesel in Shandong Province. In other words, the rigid expenditure of transporting this trip is more than 1,700 yuan. If you add the empty car to return, then this trip is delivered, and Master He will hardly make any money.
Fuel costs have long been one of the biggest issues plaguing freight drivers. Therefore, in order to make more money by running a car, the phenomenon of overloading occurs from time to time, and "no overloading and no money" has been the "unspoken rule of the industry".
Even if some drivers replace their fuel vehicles with new energy trucks in order to save money, they finally find that they do not save much money - taking urban light freight vehicles as an example, the fuel cost of traditional models is about 4,000 yuan per month, but it is convenient to refuel, long-lasting battery life, and it is easy to earn back a few more orders; However, after switching to new energy trucks, although the charging cost has been reduced to about 1,500 yuan, because charging piles are not available everywhere, it is inconvenient to replenish energy, which reduces the opportunity to receive more orders.
Therefore, the penetration rate of new energy in the field of commercial vehicles is much lower than that of passenger cars. The data can illustrate this: from 2019 to 2021, the penetration rate of the entire new energy commercial vehicle has been hovering at the level of about 3%, although it will reach 9% in 2022 and 10% in 2023, it is still far from enough compared to the penetration rate of 27% in 2022 and 34% in 2023.
Some people may say, "Does commercial vehicles have a lot to do with us?" ”
The logistics trucks shuttling through the streets and alleys of the city, the sanitation sprinkler trucks in the early morning, the buses parked next to the tourist attractions, and the heavy trucks speeding on the highway are all commercial vehicles.
Of course, the tanker that "directly shipped edible soybean oil after unloading coal-to-liquid" that was exposed by the media is also a commercial vehicle, and the reason why the tanker driver "does not clean the tank during the exchange and transportation process" is still - cost saving.
The supervision of relevant departments and industry self-discipline are very important, but from "no overload, no money" to "no mixed tanks do not make money", this "no XX does not make money" cycle has not been broken. "Overloading of trucks" and "mixing and not cleaning tanks" are social phenomena that violate laws and regulations, but their essence is economic behavior. So, is it possible to directly reduce the cost of commercial vehicles through technology and product innovation?
The history of the development of commercial vehicles in mainland China is actually earlier than that of passenger cars, why is it lagging behind in the new energy era? In addition to the high cost and inconvenience of energy replenishment, what are the other reasons that hinder the increase in the electrification rate of commercial vehicles? What is the reason for the sudden increase in the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in recent months? What role do power battery manufacturers play in this, and how do they contribute to the reduction of the cost of new energy commercial vehicles?
The story also begins with the development of China's automobile industry.
1. From policy-driven to market-driven
The development of China's automobile industry is largely driven by policy, and new energy vehicles are no exception. Commercial vehicles have played a leading role in the two waves of the rise of the traditional automobile and new energy vehicle industries.
On July 13, 1953, Changchun No. 1 Automobile Factory officially started construction; On July 13, 1956, the first "Jiefang" truck rolled off the production line, ending the history of China not being able to make its own cars; In March 1958, China's first domestically produced light truck NJ130 was born, named Yuejin brand; In June 1975, the second automobile developed and put into production the Dongfeng 2.5-ton cargo off-road vehicle, and in 1978, the civilian truck "Xiaoli Dongfeng" codenamed EQ140 was officially put into production......
It can be said that before the reform and opening up, China's automobile industry has been driven by commercial vehicles, until after the reform and opening up, China's passenger car industry in the car project on the basis of foreign joint ventures, only ushered in a period of rapid development.
In 2001, new energy vehicles were included in the 863 major scientific and technological projects during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period; In 2003, the pure electric minibus on the campus of Tsinghua University began to operate; In the same year, Foton, a commercial vehicle company, launched the research and development of new energy vehicles; After the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" was proposed in 2006, BYD launched the research and development of pure electric buses; In January 2009, by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly launched the "Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles" project, the main content is through the provision of financial subsidies, plans to use about 3 years, the development of 10 cities per year, each city launched 1,000 new energy vehicles to carry out demonstration operations, involving these large and medium-sized cities in the fields of public transport, taxi, official business, municipal, postal and other fields.
Since then, the intensive introduction of industrial policies, coupled with multiple rounds of state subsidies, has put the development of new energy commercial vehicles into the fast lane. According to the data, from 2015 to 2018, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles in mainland China were 124,000, 172,000, 198,000 and 201,000 respectively, with penetration rates of 3.6%, 4.7%, 4.8% and 4.6% respectively. Before 2018, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in mainland China was always higher than that of passenger vehicles.
Market penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles from 2015 to May 2024, data source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Chebai Think Tank, mapping: Jiazi Light Year
It can be said that without the "traction" of new energy commercial vehicles, there will be no vigorous development of the new energy vehicle industry.
However, the dominance of commercial vehicles did not last long.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Chebai Think Tank, although the sales of new energy commercial vehicles exceeded 200,000 units in 2018, the penetration rate declined slightly after that year, from 4.6% to 3.4%; After 2020, affected by factors such as the epidemic and macroeconomic trends, the overall sales of commercial vehicles were under pressure, and the sales of new energy commercial vehicles were also affected: taking the data of 2020 as an example, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles were only 121,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 41.4%, even lower than the sales volume in 2015 (124,000 units), and the market penetration rate fell to 2.4%.
In addition to external factors such as the epidemic and the macroeconomy, the biggest reason for the decline in sales of new energy commercial vehicles is the decline in subsidies.
On March 26, 2019, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments jointly issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", canceling the local subsidies for new energy vehicles, and in terms of national subsidies, the plug-in hybrid subsidy was 10,000 yuan, a decrease of 55%; Among the pure electric models, the subsidy for the cruising range of 250-400km is 18,000 yuan, a decrease of 60%; The subsidy for more than 400km is 25,000 yuan, a decrease of 50%. The amount of subsidies for new energy buses and new energy special vehicles has also dropped sharply.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, said in an article in 2016 that "commercial vehicle products are developed for subsidies, so the policy determines the route and market potential...... If the subsidy policy changes, the market will change dramatically, and the development of such new energy vehicles is unsustainable. We need to consider why we are developing new energy vehicles, where is the core point of development, and how to achieve technological breakthroughs. ”
2021 is another watershed in the history of China's new energy vehicle development. This year, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 3.521 million units, and the market penetration rate also jumped to 13.4% from 5.4% in the previous year. The market popularity of new energy commercial vehicles has also rebounded, with annual sales of 186,000 units, and the market penetration rate has rebounded to 3.9%.
In 2022, the new energy commercial vehicle market will further recover, with annual sales of 238,000 units, and the market penetration rate will reach 9.3%, which will soon exceed the 10% node. Among them, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles in December was 67,000, a year-on-year increase of 121%; NEV exports totaled 27,000 units, reflecting a 1.3-fold y/y increase.
In 2023, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles will reach 314,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42%; The market penetration rate reached 11%, showing a good situation of continuous and continuous growth.
The data for 2024 is even more surprising. According to the data released by the Passenger Association, since March this year, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles have increased sharply, and the penetration rate has also increased significantly - from January to May, the domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles were 182,000 units, with an average penetration rate of 15%. Among them, 49,000 units were sold in March, with a penetration rate of 14%; The sales volume in April was 45,900 units, with a penetration rate of 16%; The sales volume in May was 46,700 units, with a penetration rate of 19%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared with 9% in May last year.
Penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles as of May 2024 Source: Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Association
15%, which is a key data for the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles. Combined with the previous situation of the passenger car market, once the penetration rate breaks through the inflection point of 15%, then the market will usher in the first round of explosive growth.
Unlike the first wave of growth, which mainly relied on subsidies, the growth of the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in 2022, especially since December, is driven by a combination of high-quality supply, market demand and policies:
- In 2022, due to the influence of geopolitics, international oil prices will continue to rise, which will make many users who originally planned to buy fuel vehicles switch to buying new energy vehicles;
- On the supply and technology side, the development of electric wheel and electric axle technology has increased the motor transmission rate of new energy commercial vehicles from 82.3% to 96%, and began to support customers for industrial layout; The hierarchical control architecture of commercial vehicles has been improved, and the vehicle operation control is more stable; The energy density of the power battery unit continues to increase, the cost continues to decrease, the safety protection is improved, and innovative products such as "blade battery" and "magazine battery" have emerged; The battery swap technology is becoming more and more mature, and the sales of battery swapping heavy trucks have increased significantly;
- Of course, policy has also played a boosting role. At the end of 2021, the state issued the "Notice of the Four Ministries and Commissions on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", announcing that the national new energy subsidy will be reduced by 30% on the basis of the previous year in 2022, and this preferential treatment will be cancelled on December 31, 2022, which also means that 2022 is the last year for new energy vehicles to enjoy the national subsidy policy. In order to seize the last subsidy "dividend", car companies have increased their publicity efforts, and end customers have also seized the window period to concentrate on purchases. In addition, the implementation of the new regulations for blue light trucks and the implementation of the comprehensive electrification policy for vehicles in the public sector all boosted the growth of new energy commercial vehicle sales to a certain extent.
Based on the above-mentioned development history of new energy commercial vehicles, Jiazi Lightyear found that before 2022, the development of new energy commercial vehicles in China was more policy-driven; After 2022, the development of the new energy commercial vehicle market will shift from a separate policy-driven to a "policy + market" two-wheel drive. The "market" is playing an increasingly important role in the increase in the electrification rate of commercial vehicles.
In this process, power battery manufacturers are the "key sons" behind the development of the industry.
2. Breakout of battery factories
Although the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has increased significantly in recent years, when we look back at the overall new energy vehicle market, we will find that both sales volume and penetration rate, new energy commercial vehicles are far lower than new energy passenger vehicles.
In terms of sales, according to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China in 2023 will be 7.736 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%; In comparison, NEV sales are only 35,000 units, less than a fraction of that of passenger cars, and in terms of penetration, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the penetration rate of NEV passenger vehicles in China reached 47% in May 2024, while the penetration rate of NEV commercial vehicles was only 19%.
The reasons behind this are related to the people who use commercial vehicles and the characteristics of commercial vehicles themselves:
First of all, the use cases of commercial vehicles are limited. As a result, its potential market size and number of users are already smaller than that of passenger vehicles, which limits the market ceiling of new energy commercial vehicles.
Secondly, the battery affects the load and is inconvenient to replenish energy. Commercial vehicles are mainly buses (buses) and trucks (trucks), which are characterized by large carrying capacity and long driving time. Therefore, if this type of vehicle is equipped with a huge weight power battery, it will greatly reduce the weight of the goods that can be carried and reduce the economic benefits; In addition, due to the irregular driving routes of commercial vehicles, the charging facilities of many remote and long-distance transportation routes have not been covered, which also limits the popularity of new energy commercial vehicles.
Thirdly, the current commercial vehicle battery does not meet the market demand well. Different from the flexible travel of passenger cars that can be replenished at any time, commercial vehicles are production tools, and logistics and distribution are their biggest use scenarios, which puts forward higher requirements for power batteries - logistics drivers buy trucks and trucks to make money and make a living, so the charging cost cannot be too high; Long-distance transportation must be delivered on time and on time, so the battery life cannot be too short and the charging cannot be too slow. At present, the battery of most new energy commercial vehicles cannot meet these requirements: the average range of most new energy commercial vehicles is about 260-330 kilometers and needs to be charged on the way, and it takes half a day to wait for each charge.
Large battery load capacity, imperfect infrastructure, high charging costs, short cruising range, and long charging time have all contributed to the low electrification rate of commercial vehicles - and the core solution lies in the power battery.
In recent years, major battery factories and technology suppliers have also seen opportunities in the field of new energy commercial vehicles, and have laid out their layouts:
In April 2022, Gotion Hi-Tech and Geely Commercial Vehicle signed a cooperation agreement, Gotion Hi-Tech clarified that Geely will supply batteries for light commercial models and increase the supply volume year by year, and the two parties promise to supply/purchase a total of 126,000 sets of battery products from 2022 to 2024, including three categories: micro-surface, light truck, and extended range.
In May 2024, EVE released the "Open Source Battery" series for the commercial vehicle market, and released four platform products: micro-surface, light truck, heavy truck H2 and heavy truck H3, which are suitable for different commercial vehicle application scenarios. This series of products adopts 3C supercharging technology, which can be quickly charged from 20% to 80% SOC in 15 minutes, which shortens the charging time by 67% compared with conventional batteries, and greatly improves the operational efficiency of commercial vehicles.
In June this year, Rongsheng Mongoli also launched a new high-power fast-charging battery system for the new energy commercial vehicle market, which adopts "four-dimensional thermal management technology", the cooling efficiency is increased by more than 4 times, the power performance of the system is increased by 2 times compared with the previous generation of products under the same battery cell, the volume density is increased by 15%, the heating speed in the low temperature environment is increased to 3 times that of the previous one, and the system-level life is expected to be increased by 30%; At the same time, it supports 4C fast charging and other operations.
This month, "King Ning" also came down.
On July 4, power battery giant CATL officially launched a commercial power battery brand - "CATL Tianxing", and at the same time released two products, "CATL Tianxing Light Commercial Vehicle (L) - Supercharging Version" and "CATL Tianxing Light Commercial Vehicle (L) - Long Range Version". The two power batteries released this time focus on the logistics field and are oriented to different application scenarios, but both have greatly improved charging speed and mileage.
CATL Tianxing L-Supercharge has 4C supercharging capacity, with a large power of 140 kWh and an energy density of 155Wh/kg, with a lighter dead weight and a cruising range of up to 350km under actual working conditions, far exceeding the industry average. At the same time, the Tianxing L-supercharging version has an ultra-fast charging speed of 60% in 12 minutes, which can adapt to more flexible freight needs, whether it is suburban transportation or urban delivery, it can be charged and gone, which greatly shortens the vehicle charging time and improves the frequency of vehicle freight and operational efficiency.
CATL Tianxing L-Long Endurance Edition has an ultra-long battery life of 500km and a super power of 200 kWh, whether it is from Beijing to Hohhot or from Kunming to Guiyang, there is no need to charge halfway, and it can easily cope with intercity long-distance freight scenarios. At the same time, the energy density of the Tianxing L-long-range version has reached 200Wh/kg, which is the highest level in the light commercial vehicle industry, and the comprehensive weight reduction of the whole vehicle can reach up to 300kg, creating more effective load.
Introduction to CATL Tianxing battery, picture source: CATL
The data of the above two products are obtained from the test operation under the real working conditions of the vehicle full load and high speed of 80 kilometers per hour. At the same time, both products have an 8-year 800,000 km full life cycle warranty, which can greatly reduce costs compared with fuel vehicles.
At the scene of the commercial battery brand press conference, Gao Huan, CTO of CATL's domestic commercial vehicle division, calculated an account for the audience:
According to the diesel price of 7.4 yuan/liter, the annual refueling cost of a fuel vehicle is at least 140,000 yuan; The new energy commercial vehicle using the Tianxing L-long-range version, according to the night electricity price of 0.6 yuan/kWh, the cost of charging per night is about 500 yuan, and the charging cost is only 40,000 yuan in a year, saving 100,000 yuan compared with traditional fuel vehicles. In addition to reducing energy costs, the 8-year 800,000 km warranty also enables Tianxing commercial vehicle batteries to achieve a higher value retention rate, saving users more expenses.
For logistics companies, CATL's new product launch is also quite meaningful - in the operation of logistics companies, TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) is an issue that must be considered when choosing a car, which includes the cost of car purchase (down payment, loan interest, insurance premium, etc.), operating expenses (refueling/charging costs, road and bridge tolls, driver salaries, etc.), accident expenses (fines, etc.) and residual value (the estimated value of the current used car). The main formula for its calculation is:
TCO = First Car Purchase Cost + Operating Expenses + Unexpected Expenses - Residual Value
As a cost, the lower the TCO, the better. Whoever can reduce the cost of buying a car, operating expenses, and increase the residual value will be able to occupy a place in the wave of commercial vehicle electrification.
CATL's Tianxing commercial vehicle battery covers the entire life cycle of the vehicle due to the 8-year 800,000-kilometer warranty, which makes the battery sell at a higher price when it is scrapped, which greatly improves the residual value of the second-hand car. The two versions of the battery launched for different scenarios also greatly shorten the charging time, greatly increase the battery life, improve the frequency of vehicle freight and operational efficiency, thereby reducing operating expenses and greatly reducing the TCO of logistics companies.
Although CATL's products are only for light commercial vehicles, "Ningwang" aims at the pain points of the entire commercial vehicle industry.
3. Where is the next battlefield
Intelligent commercial vehicles in the future, image source: Photo.com AI
In this wave of commercial vehicle electrification, "Jiazi Lightyear" observed that the current new energy commercial vehicle battery market is dominated by pure electric vehicles, the competitive landscape is highly concentrated, and the charge is constantly expanding.
Among them, the "high concentration of competition pattern" is particularly worth discussing - what kind of market are major battery manufacturers competing for?
Taking stock of the commercial vehicle batteries released by major power battery manufacturers, it is not difficult to find that the products they launch are mainly for light commercial vehicles such as light buses and light trucks, whether it is the "Tianxing L-super charging version" and "Tianxing L-long endurance version" of CATL, or the "open source battery" of EVE Lithium Energy, or the cooperation between Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Geely light commercial vehicles.
Why are the major battery manufacturers making a hole in the market of light commercial vehicles?
First of all, this is related to the development level of power batteries in the mainland. According to the data released by the self-media "Smart Car Observation and Thinking", among the pure electric commercial vehicles in the mainland, the average charge of heavy trucks is 293kWh, and the average range is 261KM; The average power of the medium truck is 148kWh, and the average range is 325KM; The average battery of the light card is 61kwh, and the average battery life is 328km; The average battery of light buses is 50kWh, and the average range is 268KM.
And what is the average energy density of power batteries in mainland China at present? According to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2021, the energy density of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries in China reached an average of 280Wh/kg and 170Wh/kg, respectively. Therefore, the current level of battery technology development is more suitable for the development of light commercial vehicle products in urban logistics scenarios.
Secondly, the choice to give priority to light commercial vehicles is also closely related to the market structure of new energy commercial vehicles in the mainland.
According to the statistics of the Energy Chain Research Institute in March 2023, among the commercial vehicle ownership structure of about 40 million, light trucks have the largest volume, accounting for the highest proportion, close to 57%; followed by heavy trucks, with about 9 million holdings, accounting for 25%; The third is light passenger cars, more than 3 million, almost a tenth. The remaining large buses, medium buses, medium trucks, micro trucks, and pickup trucks are less than one million.
The commercial vehicle market data released by Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Association, also confirms this trend: as shown in the figure below, in 2022-2024, the sales volume of light trucks in the truck category accounts for the highest proportion, and the sales volume in 2022-2024 accounts for 31%, 32%, and 36% of the total truck sales respectively; followed by micro cards, the sales volume in the past three years accounted for 18%, 21%, and 20% respectively; Again, it is a micro-customer, and the sales volume in three years accounted for 22%, 19%, and 15% respectively. Although there is a slight difference in the commercial vehicle category in third place, it cannot escape the broad category of "light commercial vehicles" in general.
Changes in sales volume in the commercial vehicle market as of May 2024 Source: Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Association
It can be seen that the electrification and growth trend of commercial vehicles are the biggest focus on light commercial vehicles and heavy trucks, and light commercial vehicles, as a category with a larger proportion, have naturally received more attention.
Third, BEV is a market that is very different from EV passenger vehicles. In the field of passenger cars, pure electric models often need to bear a faster depreciation rate than fuel vehicles at the same price, but in the field of light commercial vehicles, the residual value of the vehicle depends to a large extent on the state of the power battery when it is recycled.
Therefore, "which battery to carry" has become one of the key factors for users to make purchase decisions.
To sum up, new energy light commercial vehicles, as the largest piece of fat in the commercial vehicle market, have naturally become the focus of major battery manufacturers.
In addition to light commercial vehicles, another battlefield for major power battery manufacturers is heavy trucks.
As can be seen from the previous data, heavy trucks occupy the top three sales in the commercial vehicle field, but their electrification rate is very low, only 6% in 2023 and only 9% in 2024. As the main production tool of logistics and transportation and a "large diesel generator", heavy trucks have a high degree of pollution and face stock substitution, so they are in great need of new energy transformation.
For example, CATL has developed an advanced high-voltage battery system, which is applied to Daimler Trucks' new pure electric long-haul heavy-duty truck, eActros LongHaul; EVE has been involved in the electric heavy-duty truck market since 2019 and has gradually become the second largest supplier of heavy-duty truck battery PACK after CATL. Gotion Hi-Tech cooperates with Sany Heavy Truck to develop new energy heavy truck products; Lanjun New Energy also relies on self-developed 324Ah long-life battery cells, and achieved 310MWh of battery shipments in a single month in April 2024.
In the process of major manufacturers competing for the electrification of heavy trucks, the "battery swap" mode has become the focus that cannot be ignored.
The so-called "battery replacement" refers to providing energy supply for electric heavy trucks by quickly replacing the battery without charging. This mode allows heavy trucks to run uninterrupted within 24 hours, which can effectively improve transportation efficiency, reduce vehicle purchase costs, and achieve carbon emission reduction of 100,000 kg per vehicle per year.
As early as June last year, CATL released its self-developed one-stop heavy truck chassis battery swap solution - Qiji battery swap, the battery uses battery technology with an ultra-long cycle life of up to 15,000 times, which can allow each battery to operate on the electric heavy truck for more than 10 years, completely covering the life cycle of the electric heavy truck itself, and the total cost of heavy trucks driving 200,000 kilometers per year can save 3-60,000 yuan per year, and 30-600,000 yuan in 10 years.
BYD has not given up this market, its Fodi battery has launched a blade battery pack with a charge and replacement integration, which can cover 200kWh ~ 400kWh, including the blade battery serving the field of heavy trucks, with a life of more than 12,000 times; Combined to the battery pack, the life is more than 10,000 cycles.
In August 2023, SVOLT also began to develop the "LCTP Standard Battery-swapping Battery Pack for Heavy Trucks with Integrated Dynamic Storage Batteries", which aims to open up the general integration of heavy-duty truck battery swapping and energy storage batteries. In April 2022, Envision Power cooperated with FAW Jiefang to build two intelligent heavy-duty truck battery swap stations, and completed the battery swap demonstration operation of Envision Power's new-generation heavy-duty truck battery system supporting Jiefang J6P. In addition, EVE Lithium Energy, Riplandjun and other companies also have layouts in the field of battery swapping.
According to the report of Guojin Securities, although the initial acquisition cost of electric commercial vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles, the whole life cycle cost (TCO) of electric commercial vehicles is lower than that of fuel vehicles. Among them, the TCO of battery-swapping heavy trucks can be reduced by 11.7% compared with traditional heavy trucks, saving 266,000 yuan, while in the field of electric light trucks and light buses, the new energy urban distribution logistics vehicle is 263,000 yuan, which is 50% less than the traditional fuel logistics vehicle of 442,000 yuan, which is more economical.
Whether it is cost reduction and efficiency increase, industrial upgrading, or energy conservation and emission reduction, it is the reason for the electrification transformation of commercial vehicles. When the cost performance and energy efficiency of batteries continue to improve, and the cost of charging and battery replacement is further reduced, it is not a "fantasy" to solve the problem of "no XX and no money" through new energy technology.
From the overturning accident of the Wuxi viaduct caused by overloading of trucks in 2019 to the incident of tankers unloading coal-to-liquid and directly loading edible soybean oil, the phenomenon is heart-wrenching, but there is a complex economic logic behind it. In addition to industry rectification and standardization, technology should also play an important role in promoting industry transformation, and these tragedies and farces are expected to be reduced.
(Cover picture source: photo.com)