#头条首发大赛#
United States has been messed up these days. Some people asked, the situation is so chaotic, when the smoke of infighting dissipates, what will become of the United States?
In fact, United States things are not complicated, just look at two things to know what they are going to do, and we will know what kind of situation we will face.
Not afraid of United States chaos, just look at two things, the first who is elected president, and the second when the dollar will cut interest rates.
The chaos in United States began with the assassination of Trump and will eventually bring Trump to power as president again.
At present, the Fed has become the focus of fierce bipartisan battles in the United States election.
Seeing that the situation is very bad, Fed Chairman Powell has messed up, and he no longer has the calmness of the past, and frequently shows goodwill to Trump, saying that interest rate cuts are ready, just waiting for Trump's order.
Isn't Powell waiting for the orders of the capital bigwigs behind the Fed? Of course not, that's not his business, that's something Trump wants to settle with.
Trump is also smart, and immediately said in an interview that if he becomes president, he will not seek to end Powell's term early, but Powell should be obedient and not cut interest rates before November, because that would benefit the Democrats.
This reveals an important message and illustrates an important issue.
This shows that not only does Trump not want to cut interest rates before November, but perhaps the bigwigs behind the Fed have already communicated with Trump and do not want the dollar to cut interest rates before November.
Trump does not want to cut interest rates early, and of course his opponents will come in the opposite direction, but if the bigwigs behind him do not agree, it will be very difficult to cut interest rates early.
As an aside, some netizens have said in the past few days that Trump doesn't have a better relationship with Jews? Is it also more pro-Israel?
You are mistaken, the Jewish consortium is the century-old benefactor of the Democratic Party, and there is information on this. It is for this reason that Trump has used more extreme methods to desperately win over the Jewish consortium.
On the other hand, the Jewish consortium has spent hundreds of years controlling the Democratic Party to engage in radical foreign expansion and hegemony, and expand the empire of wealth to the whole world.
Behemoths like them are not afraid of Trump, and they can't easily change their political stance, otherwise what's the deal? Who will be able to trust their promises in the future?
But there were also many times when Jewish conglomerates had to bet on both sides and make a timely gesture of goodwill to the Republican Party.
Well, back to the US dollar rate cut, the wind may really be changing.
This morning, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Fed Watch" released the latest forecast data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 1.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 95.5%.
It now appears that the likelihood of an early rate cut in September has increased significantly.
The U.S. dollar is about to cut interest rates, and U.S. stocks have fallen sharply because capital is about to run out of United States.
Yesterday, U.S. tech giants fell sharply across the board, with the Nasdaq plunging more than 2.5% at one point, and the S&P 500 falling more than 1%.
The worst is chip stocks, Nvidia, ASML, TSMC, almost all chip giants can not escape the fate of falling.
At this time, the important characters of United States jumped out to build momentum.
The first is two days ago Bloomberg and Reuters, whose forecasts trumpeted a 25 basis point cut in July.
Then, the always conservative Goldman Sachs couldn't sit still.
Goldman Sachs Group Chief Economist Jan · Hachus called for the United States Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cuts during its monetary policy meeting at the end of July.
Moody's, who has never been disciplined, directly proposed a crazy interest rate cut plan, and the agency expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 50-75 basis points this year, and another 100-125 basis points by 2025.
Well, this is obviously a direct reduction of the interest rate on the dollar to within 3% of Trump's preference.
But can the big capitalists behind the Fed agree? They are known as the shadow presidents of the United States, but they are not afraid of anyone.
The conclusion is that despite the cheerful dancing of these guys in the front desk, we are not optimistic about an early rate cut in September anyway.
Because the big capitalists don't like the weak dollar, and they don't want the US stock market to fall sharply, not to mention that the purpose of harvesting has not been achieved?
In addition, they are likely not ready for early rate cuts, such as early withdrawal from the stock market, and withdrawal of funds from Japan.
So, when will the dollar cut interest rates? In the end, this matter has a lot to do with the United States election.
As we said the other day, if Biden does not withdraw from the election, the dollar may cut interest rates at the end of October or early November, and the Jewish consortium cannot easily change its political stance and support it to the end.
If Biden withdraws from the election and the Democrats do not give their hands on it, the Jewish consortium will probably not expect them to win, and then the dollar will likely cut interest rates after the November election.
Therefore, the US dollar interest rate cut in September is estimated to be another short. In any case, the financial war between China and the United States is coming to an end.