Egg Market Weekly Report (2024.7.12-2024.7.18 |.) Week 29), details are as follows:
Main content:
Market Overview
Price change: As of July 18, 2024, the domestic egg market price was 4.58 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin, or 1.1%, from last week.
Influencing factors:
The price of vegetables in some areas is high, and the consumption effect of egg substitution is good.
Some farmers are reluctant to sell, and the bullish sentiment has increased, resulting in a tight supply of local traders and an increase in prices.
On the weekend, the terminal market was resistant to high-priced eggs, and the downstream goods were not fast, and the enthusiasm of breeding enterprises to ship increased, and the price was corrected.
Supply and demand
On the supply side:
The scorching heat and high temperature and humidity in summer affect the egg laying rate of laying birds, and egg production decreases.
Some farmers are reluctant to sell, the bullish sentiment increases, and local traders are tight in terms of procurement supply.
On the demand side:
The price of vegetables in some areas is high, and the consumption effect of egg substitution is good.
The sentiment of farmers to raise prices has been enhanced, the bullish atmosphere in the market has become stronger, and the circulation links have accelerated.
Egg Exports:
In May 2024, the total export volume of eggs was 11784.064 tons, the total export value was 16268613 US dollars, and the export price was 1380.56 US dollars / ton, an increase of 4.55% year-on-year.
Egg Futures Situation:
This week's futures closing price fell, as of July 17, the closing price of DCE eggs was 4062 yuan/500 kg, the lowest closing price in the week was 4071 yuan/500 kg, and the highest closing price was 4100 yuan/500 kg.
Costs and profits
In terms of cost:
Feed prices such as corn and soybean meal continued to fall. The price of corn is 2377 yuan/ton, the price of soybean meal is 3025 yuan/ton, the comprehensive feed cost is about 2701 yuan/ton, and the cost of egg feed is 2.98 yuan/kg.
In terms of profits:
This week, the national egg feed price ratio was 3.11, and the profit of laying hens was 44.7 yuan / piece. With the rise in egg prices, dealers are cautious in purchasing high-priced goods, and egg prices will stabilize in the short term. It is expected that the southern region will continue to produce plums, downstream purchases will increase, egg prices will still rise, and the expected profits of breeding may continue to rise.
Forecast for the future
Supply side:
The high temperature and high humidity weather continued to affect the egg production rate, and the pressure on egg supply eased, but the total supply of commercial poultry eggs increased slightly, and the supply pressure was still there.
Demand side:
During the summer vacation, the demand for school centralized procurement weakened, food processing factories and catering industries were cautious in replenishment, and traders may have a small number of low-level purchases, and the demand for summer tourism increased slightly, but the overall demand was still weak. It is expected that the price of eggs will be weak and volatile, and the price will be between 3.5-3.7 yuan / catty, which is lower than this week.
Soybean meal market situation
This week, the market price of soybean meal fell, with an average price of 3,025 yuan per ton, down 115 yuan or 3.66% from last week. The combination of domestic and foreign factors has led to a decline in soybean meal prices, an increase in inventories, and weak demand.
Internationally, as of July 17, the closing price of CBOT soybean meal was $312.1 per short ton, down 1.36% from last week, down 13.38% from the previous month, and down 17.76% from the beginning of the year. The weather in the new crop producing areas of US beans remained good, the production prospects were optimistic, and the market demand was weak.
On the supply side, domestic soybean crushing is expected to be 1.87 million tonnes this week, down 210,000 tonnes from last week and 350,000 tonnes from the same period last year. The import volume of soybeans from the mainland is expected to be 13 million tons in July, a new high for the year.
On the demand side, the domestic market demand was cold this week, and the terminal market just needed to exist, but the pig production capacity was significantly reduced, and the demand for soybean meal was limited.
In terms of inventory, the soybean meal inventory of major oil mills in the country in the 28th week of 2024 was 1.2167 million tons, an increase of 153,800 tons from the previous week.
In terms of cost, the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3,858.96 yuan per ton, down 54.61 yuan or 1.4% from last week.
In terms of profits, the cost of imported soybeans fell, the price of oilmeal futures fell even deeper, and oil mills and traders faced losses.
In terms of market outlook, soybean meal prices are expected to remain weak next week, with an average price of between 2,940 and 2,980 yuan per tonne.
Core data
Egg market price
This week's egg price: 4.58 yuan / catty
Last week's egg price: 4.53 yuan / catty
Increase: 0.05 yuan/jin (1.1%)
Egg supply
Production: 671,211 tons (down 0.16% year-on-year)
Operating rate: 85.15% (down 0.31% from last week)
Feed prices
Corn price: 2377 yuan/ton
Soybean meal price: 3025 yuan/ton
Comprehensive feed cost: 2701 yuan/ton
The cost of egg feed per catty: 2.98 yuan/kg
Farming profits
National egg feed price: 3.11
Profit of laying hens: 44.7 yuan / piece
Egg exports
May 2024 export volume: 11,784.064 tons
May 2024 Exports: USD 16,268,613
May 2024 export price: 1380.56 US dollars / ton (up 4.55% year-on-year)
Egg futures prices
The closing price of DCE egg futures: 4062 yuan / 500 kg
The lowest closing price of the week: 4071 yuan / 500 kg
The highest closing price in the week: 4100 yuan / 500 kg
Soybean meal market price
The average price of soybean meal market this week: 3025 yuan/ton (down 115 yuan/ton from last week, down 3.66%)
South American soybean arrival cost: 3858.96 yuan/ton (down 54.61 yuan/ton from last week, down 1.4%)
Soybean meal stocks
Soybean meal inventory of major oil mills in the country: 1.2167 million tons (an increase of 153,800 tons from last week)
Soybean meal price prediction
Soybean meal market price forecast next week: 2940-2980 yuan/ton
Egg price prediction for next week
Estimated price range: 3.5-3.7 yuan / catty
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics/China Customs/BAIINFO/Baichuan Yingfu Big Data
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