In the view of industry insiders, the problem of new energy consumption is imminent, and all parties need to make overall plans to solve the large-scale development and high-level consumption of new energy, and should scientifically arrange the layout of new energy development, production timing, and consumption direction in combination with the consumption capacity, so as to escort the high-quality development of the new energy industry and help the construction of a new power system.
Under the situation of rapid growth of new energy, how to do a good job in the consumption of new energy and maintain the level of rational utilization of new energy has become the focus of attention in the industry. Recently, entrusted by the State Council, Hou Kai, Auditor General of the Audit Administration, made the "Audit Report of the State Council on the Implementation of the Central Budget and Other Financial Revenues and Expenditures in 2023" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") to the 10th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress, which mentioned the lack of overall planning for the development and utilization of new energy.
In the view of industry insiders, in the context of the rapid development of new energy in the mainland, the problem of new energy consumption is imminent, and all parties need to solve the relationship between the large-scale development and high-level consumption of new energy, as well as the safe and reliable supply of electricity, and scientifically arrange the layout of new energy development, production timing and consumption direction in combination with the consumption capacity, escort the high-quality development of the new energy industry, and help the construction of a new power system.
The problem of consumption has emerged
In 2023, the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in mainland China will surpass that of thermal power generation in a historic manner, becoming an important milestone in the mainland's clean and low-carbon energy transition.
According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, in 2023, the new installed capacity of new energy in mainland China will be 293 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 138.0%, of which 75.9 million kilowatts will be installed in wind power and 217 million kilowatts in photovoltaic power generation. By the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy in mainland China will reach 1.051 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 38.6%, and the cumulative installed power generation capacity of the country will be about 2.92 billion kilowatts, of which hydropower, wind power, and solar power generation will account for 50.4%.
However, while the installed capacity of new energy is growing gratifyingly, the problem of local consumption is becoming increasingly prominent. According to the "National New Energy Grid-Connected Consumption in March 2024" released by the National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early Warning Center, from January to March, the national wind power utilization rate was 96.1% and the photovoltaic power generation utilization rate was 96%, both down year-on-year.
The above-mentioned "report" also mentioned that some areas in the five provinces have launched new energy projects regardless of their own consumption, delivery and supporting support capabilities, and some projects that have been put into operation have abandoned a total of 5.013 billion kWh of electricity since 2021. In addition, 50 large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base projects in "Shagehuang" have been "fragmented". Among the 401 sub-projects, 385 have a single scale of less than the required 1 million kilowatts, which increases the difficulty of supporting power grid construction and grid connection.
In this regard, Peng Peng, secretary-general of the China New Energy Power Investment and Financing Alliance, told the China Energy News: "At present, the development of new energy is much faster than the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the goal of the 14th Five-Year Plan is to reach 1.2 billion kilowatts of wind and solar capacity in 2030, but at present, it seems that it will be able to reach 1.2 billion kilowatts in 2024, six years ahead of schedule." In this case, it will indeed cause a mismatch between consumption and installation. ”
"At present, the overall situation of new energy development and utilization in the mainland shows a positive and benign trend as a whole, but the current power supply development speed is faster than supporting construction, and the lag in power grid investment and construction limits the grid-connected capacity, and the system cost will increase." Sun Chuanwang, a professor at the China Energy Economy Research Center of Xiamen University, told the China Energy News.
Peng Peng also pointed out that at present, the large wind and solar bases are relatively concentrated, and even if there are conditions for connecting to the network and being able to consume, it depends on the willingness of the buyer. "Due to the gradual concentration of peak electricity consumption in the mainland, the evening is the peak time, which further increases the difficulty of consumption."
There are challenges in coordinated development
It is worth noting that with the large-scale integration of new energy into the grid, the demand for supporting power grid construction has risen significantly, but the coordination between new energy projects and power grid construction in mainland China needs to be improved.
Zhang Yiguo, chief planner of the General Institute of Hydropower and Water Conservancy Planning and Design, pointed out that on the one hand, some areas focus on resource conditions when studying new energy development planning, and do not fully consider grid-connected transmission and consumption, and the scale of new energy planning is not coordinated with the power grid transmission and transformation capacity, power load absorption capacity, etc. On the other hand, it is often difficult to match the construction progress of new energy projects with the power grid transmission.
"Wind power, photovoltaic power generation project early start of the preliminary work, ontology engineering construction fast, most of the can be approved in the current year, started in the same year, put into operation in the current year, and the supporting grid access project construction cycle is relatively long, new energy supporting network connection project from the inclusion of planning, feasibility study approval, construction and production time than the construction period of new energy projects generally more than half a year or even nearly a year. In addition, due to factors such as land use policies, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the development of new energy in some areas, and it is difficult to match the power grid planning. Zhang Yiguo pointed out.
In addition, the "fragmentation" of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base projects also poses challenges to the construction of power grids. Sun Chuanwang believes that the "fragmentation" of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic base projects will increase the complexity of power grid construction planning and increase the difficulty of load forecasting and voltage stability assessment. "At the same time, it will increase the investment cost of grid infrastructure, including the construction of substations and transmission lines, and also bring technical challenges and safety risks to the grid-connected operation of the grid."
The National Energy Administration recently issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in New Energy Consumption and Ensuring the High-quality Development of New Energy" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), which clearly arranges the construction of new energy projects in an orderly manner. The provincial-level energy authorities shall, in combination with the absorption capacity, scientifically arrange the development layout, production sequence and consumption direction of centralized new energy, guide and supervise the municipal (county) level energy authorities to reasonably arrange the development layout of distributed new energy, urge enterprises to do a good job in implementation, and strengthen the coordination between new energy and supporting power grid construction。 For the large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases in the desert and Gobi desert areas included in the planning and layout plan, the construction of new energy projects should be promoted in accordance with the timing requirements of the relevant state departments on the construction of wind power and photovoltaic bases and supporting UHV channels.
Relax utilization targets
In view of how to solve the problem of consumption, Sun Chuanwang suggested that in the short term, according to the power market demand, natural resource endowment, and power grid construction planning, the layout of new energy projects should be coordinated, the approval process should be standardized, and the project supervision should be strengthened; In the long run, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of power grid infrastructure and smart grids, improve grid-connected capacity, expand the scope of cross-regional power transmission, and enhance the scope of system regulation.
Peng Peng believes that the price signal can clearly guide the demand, and the solution to the new energy consumption is still to promote the market-oriented approach, attract more electricity demand to concentrate on the photovoltaic power generation time period, and some supporting business models will also appear in the future.
It is worth noting that the "Notice" also clarifies that some areas with better resource conditions can appropriately relax the new energy utilization rate target, which is not less than 90% in principle, and carry out annual dynamic assessment according to the consumption situation.
Zhang Yiguo mentioned that the introduction of this policy clause will respect the development willingness and independent choice of enterprises to the greatest extent, that is, under the premise of satisfying the optimal rate of return and the cost of the whole society, regions and projects with good resource conditions are allowed to moderately abandon electricity to increase the scale of development. "At the same time, considering the national conditions of the mainland, the target of new energy utilization rate has not been fully liberalized, and it is necessary to fully consider the progress of new energy technology and the reduction of costs, moderately relax and put forward reasonable utilization targets, expand the installed scale of new energy, and support the realization of the dual carbon goal as scheduled; It is also necessary to avoid the blind development of local governments and power generation enterprises, and build without causing huge waste; It is also necessary to urge power grid enterprises and all sectors of society to take more effective measures to further promote the consumption of new energy. ”
"By clarifying the utilization target, we can guide new energy projects to prioritize the layout in areas with strong power absorption capacity; At the same time, the market mechanism should be improved to effectively reflect the costs and benefits of new energy project construction and correct the market distortion caused by excessive utilization targets. In addition, emphasizing the role of dynamic assessment of consumption capacity is helpful to scientifically plan the commissioning sequence and development layout of new energy projects. Sun Chuanwang said.
Text丨Reporter Yang Zi Yao Meijiao
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Editor丨Yang Xiaoran