What is the significance of China's call on the five nuclear-weapon states to sign the treaty and commit themselves not to be the first to use nuclear weapons? Russia and United States have been hesitating, what are they scrupulous?
Before the opening of the Preparatory Committee for the Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which will meet in Geneva, Switzerland, from 22 July to 2 August, the Chinese delegation presented a working paper on the "No First Use of Nuclear Weapons Initiative".
UN Security Council
Russia media reported that China's call on nuclear-armed states to sign a treaty on each other's no-first-use nuclear weapons, or at least make such a political commitment, would help prevent an arms race and reduce strategic risks. United States and Russia have pledged to study China's initiative.
It is undoubtedly of great positive significance that China put forward such an initiative before the NPT Review Conference. The question is, in the current global geopolitical situation, are the other nuclear-armed powers other than China willing to sign a no-first-use document, or make a clear political commitment?
Russia media reported that for now, the chances of the initiative being implemented are "slim".
To put it bluntly, the Russian media believe that Russia and United States are unlikely to take the initiative to make a commitment not to be the first to use nuclear weapons in the current situation.
Russia nuclear forces
This point is particularly important to Russia, because the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has made Russia's lack of conventional military force clearly displayed in front of the world.
At present, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, NATO led by United States and Russia are in a very tense state of confrontation, and in this context, the use of nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence in the ballast can be said to be the fundamental pillar of Russia to ensure that NATO will not directly attack Russia.
If Russia commits not to be the first to use nuclear weapons, it will also give NATO and Russia the opportunity to decide the winner through conventional weapons.
And according to the current state of Russia and the hostility between Russia and NATO, United States certainly do not shy away from completely suppressing Russia militarily with conventional weapons.
NATO troops
In this sense, if Russia really makes a commitment not to be the first to use nuclear weapons, it is likely to lead to NATO's direct participation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which is absolutely unacceptable to Russia. Therefore, the Russian media believe that the probability of Russia signing the agreement is relatively small.
Similarly, from United States' perspective, the probability of a United States commitment not to be the first to use nuclear weapons is low. Although Russia is in an advantageous position in terms of conventional military power comparison between Russia and United States, they will expect to tie Russia's hands and feet with "no first use of nuclear weapons."
But if you look at the Asian region, United States actually does not have an advantage. To put it bluntly, the current balance of military power between China and the United States in the Western Pacific region has been reversed, and it is an undeniable fact that China has military superiority in the Western Pacific region.
This is not only because China has made rapid progress in conventional weapons in recent years, but more importantly, because the western Pacific is closer to China's homeland, and China can use its geographical advantages to achieve systematic defensive operations.
United States Navy
For United States, although it is supported by military bases in Japan, Korea, and Guam, military bases are completely different from base camps, and their ability to resist strikes and survive in war are not the same.
In the event of a large-scale conflict between China and the United States, China is fully capable of carrying out covering, saturated strikes against United States military bases deployed in the western Pacific region in the short term, thereby containing the ability of United States conventional military forces to project its capabilities.
Moreover, China's logistical production capacity is not the same as that of United States, and once the war enters a state of attrition, United States will not be able to continue without relying on the threat of nuclear weapons.
Therefore, strengthening its own nuclear deterrence is actually the only means by which the United States now vainly tries to maintain military superiority in the western Pacific region.
U.S. nuclear forces
To put it bluntly, in the nuclear game of the great powers, whoever cannot suppress the other side may be the first to use nuclear weapons. At present, Russia is about to be unable to suppress United States and NATO, and United States is gradually unable to suppress China in the western Pacific, so it is unlikely that they will commit to giving up the opportunity to use nuclear weapons first.
However, the selfish geopolitical considerations of the major powers cannot overshadow the current threat of global nuclear proliferation.
Specifically, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the deterioration of the situation on the Korean Peninsula have made more and more countries hope to acquire nuclear weapons to protect their strategic security.
Among them, Iran is a clear example. On the basis of Israel's illegal nuclear possession, Iran is bound to seek nuclear possession, sooner or later.
Iran's nuclear facilities
If there is no compromise between the nuclear-armed powers on a treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, then the current situation will only lead to more and more nuclear-weapon states, which ultimately threatens the interests of all nuclear-armed powers, including Russia and United States.
From this point of view, the issue of preventing nuclear proliferation in the world is urgent, and China's initiative needs to be taken seriously.