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Who would have thought that Tsai Ing-wen, the former "Iron Lady of Taiwan", would now become a "dissident" in her own party?
At the recent Democratic Progressive Party National Congress, Tsai Ing-wen's absence was a big surprise. Why did this former leader, who had just stepped down not long ago, "treat his successor Lai Qingde with such a cold eye"? Could it really be that Lai Qingde's seat is not very stable, as rumors have been rumored?
Speaking of Lai Qingde, the newly appointed leader of the Taiwan region can be described as "trouble-ridden." After the results of the 2024 election are released, his pitiful 40% support rate has made many people call it "hanging". You must know that in Taiwan, the "window of democracy," if the leader does not have the support of more than half of the people, he will be poked in the backbone.
In 2008, Ma Ying-jeou was elected with a high number of 7.56 million votes, and cross-strait relations entered a honeymoon period. Look at Lai Qingde today, tsk, this gap is not ordinarily big.
Lai Qingde's series of operations after coming to power made people shake their heads. As soon as this benevolent brother came up, he played a "recall drama", which made the chickens and dogs on the island jump. first attacked Keelung Mayor Xie Guoliang, but not only did he not succeed, but he was caught cheating. This is good, Lai Qingde's cronie Tong Ziwei is about to leave because he can't eat because of the "Liang fraud".
This farce not only failed to bring down Xie Guoliang, but gave Lai Qingde's own image and support a "head start". No, the DPP hastened to convene a national congress in order to stabilize the morale of the military. But who would have thought that Tsai Ing-wen, the "eldest sister", would not give face and would be absent directly. This is really "half cold"!
Looking at the DPP again, it is really a "mixture of dragons and snakes, each with its own ghosts". Although Lai's lineage holds six seats in the Standing Committee, Tsai Ing-wen and other factions also have four. The result of this national congress was described as Lai Qingde's "narrow victory, barely more than half", and it seems that the "hills" in the party are still not convinced.
Speaking of Tsai Ing-wen, this "big sister" is not a master to be messed with. Although she has stepped down, her influence in the party has not diminished at all. Lai Qingde put Tsai Ing-wen's "love general" Zheng Wencan in prison, which is a hornet's nest! Will Tsai Ing-wen continue to challenge Lai's leadership? It's a really sweaty question.
Looking at the legislature again, it is really Lai Qingde's "heartache". The Kuomintang and People's Party legislators under Korea Kuo-yu joined forces to stumble Lai Ching-de, suppressing his power to the death. Lai Qingde was so anxious that he planned to recall some legislators in 2025. This trick is really "ruthless", but it is also "rancid" enough.
Speaking of recall, we have to mention the farcical Keelung mayor's recall case. The DPP authorities confidently launched the recall, but it ended in failure. What's worse is that the relevant departments of Keelung City checked and found that some of the signatures turned out to be fake! This is a good thing, not only did he fail to succeed in the recall, but he exposed his old bottom.
Looking back at the election history in recent years, the DPP is really "one pit at a time". In the 2018 nine-in-one election, the Kuomintang won a complete victory, and Korea Yu won the mayor of Kaohsiung in one fell swoop. In the 2022 nine-in-one election, the DPP suffered another fiasco, only holding the poor position of 5 county mayors. From this point of view, the nine-in-one election in 2026 and the leadership election in 2028, the DPP may be cool.
Speaking of which, I have to mention the "elephant" of United States. Recently, Trump's remarks have made the Taiwan authorities sit on their feet. The "businessman president" bluntly stated that Taiwan needs to pay more "protection fees". He also said that if the PLA solves the Taiwan issue, the United States will not be able to help. This is true, but it really doesn't save a little face for Lai Qingde!
Trump also complained that Taiwan had robbed United States 100% of the chip industry, how did this sound so much like "dumping the pot"? It seems that Lai Qingde, the "little brother", may be abandoned by the "big brother" of the United States at any time.
Back on the island, the predicament Lai Qingde faced was really "internal and external troubles". The DPP's internal factional struggle is serious, and its unity is worrisome. It is also difficult to resolve contradictions with opposition parties and the Taiwan people. Forty percent of the support rate, to put it bluntly, lacks a public opinion base. Such a situation of "improper position" does not look like it can last long.
Looking back at Taiwan's election history over the years, it is really "twists and turns." In 2008, Ma Ying-jeou was elected with 7.56 million votes, which opened the honeymoon period of cross-strait relations. Ma Ying-jeou was re-elected in 2012, and cross-strait relations continued to develop well. But in 2016, after the Democratic Progressive Party came to power, cross-strait relations began to decline.
The nine-in-one election in 2018 really gave the DPP a blow in the face.
Although Tsai Ing-wen was successfully re-elected in 2020, the nine-in-one election in 2022 gave the DPP another blow. The DPP suffered another crushing defeat and only held the position of the poor mayor of five counties. From this point of view, the nine-in-one election in 2026 and the leadership election in 2028, the DPP may be cool.
It seems that Lai Qingde's seat is really not very stable. There are factions within the party that are eyeing each other, and the "big brother" of United States outside may turn around at any time; coupled with the weak foundation of public opinion, I am afraid that this situation of "internal worries and external troubles" will be difficult to maintain for a long time.
So the question is, what will Lai Qingde do next? Will he be able to resolve these predicaments and hold his position? Or will it suffer a crushing defeat in the 2026 and 2028 elections, as many predicted? The answers to these questions, I'm afraid, can only be given in time.
But one thing is certain, and that is that Taiwan's political scene has never lacked drama. No matter what happens next, I believe it will bring us a lot of "highlights". Let's wait and see how this "political drama" will continue to play out!
Resources:
Tsai Ing-wen does not attend the DPP's "National Congress", Taiwan media: Lai Qingde's "unity" is discounted-2024-07-21 08:38 · Strait Herald
Tsai Ing-wen's absence from the DPP's "National Congress" embarrassed Lai Qingde, Taiwan media: The "unity" that Lai wants to declare is greatly discounted-2024-07-22 07:09· Global Network
Interpreting the results of the "nine-in-one" election in Taiwan (3): Be wary of "pragmatic Taiwan independence" Lai Qingde strengthens the "anti-China card" for winning the 2024 election - original2022-12-07 21:19 · China Taiwan Net