The United States election is imminent, and judging from the current situation, Trump is likely to be stable. If Trump is re-elected United States as president, what kind of new shock will Trump bring to the world?
"Escort Students"
On July 21, Biden officially announced his withdrawal from the election, and the Democratic Party of United States will focus on supporting Harris, Biden specifically emphasized the sentence "Democrats, it's time to unite to defeat Trump." Let's get it all done".
And Trump was no longer afraid, responding that "it is easier to defeat Harris than to defeat Biden". Trump's opponent has been changed from Biden to Harris, what are Trump's chances of winning?
In 2020, Harris became Biden's running mate, and Biden praised her on social platforms as a "fearless warrior who dares to fight for the weak" and "the best servant of the people" in United States.
Harris, who is of African and Asian descent, attended Howard University with two degrees in political science and economics. In 1989, Harris also received her Juris Doctor degree, and one year later, she joined the State Bar of California, where she was hired as Deputy District Attorney for Alameda County, California.
In 2004, Harris was elected San Francisco District Attorney, the first African-American district attorney in California, and in 2016, Harris officially entered United States politics as the first black female senator in California.
Harris is hostile to Trump, why?
In 2017, Mr. Trump signed a decree "banning citizens of several Muslim-majority countries from entering United States," an order that Harris upset and described as a "Muslim ban."
Harris also made a point of calling the White House chief of staff and asking them to gather materials to overturn Trump's executive order. This time, Harris and Trump are facing each other, who will be better?
Harris's African-American identity gives her a big advantage.
In 2020, the "Floyd" incident occurred in United States, and the Democratic Party negotiated to make Harris Biden's running mate in order to gain higher approval ratings.
When Biden became president of United States, Harris also became the United States vice president, the first vice president in United States to have black and Asian ancestry, and she is the highest-ranking woman in public office in United States history.
According to United States media reports, Trump's approval rating is 48% and Harris is 47%, and the two are evenly matched. But many people think Trump has a better chance of winning, why?
According to a 2021 report by Russia TV, Harris has become the United States's least popular vice president in recent decades.
United States media also published a report titled "Anger and Dysfunction: Kamala· Harris' Dismal Start as Vice President", exposing the fact that Harris was "marginalized" in the Biden administration.
Generally speaking, after Biden withdrew from the election, Trump is the "escort" of the next president of United States, and if nothing else, Trump is likely to be stable.
Compared with four years ago, Trump is fully prepared for this campaign, and his "think tank" has drawn up a "2025 plan".
What kind of shock will Trump bring to the world this time?
New policy
When Trump first became president of United States, he suddenly launched the "Sino-US trade war" without saying hello, raising tariffs on all kinds of imported products from the mainland.
Now, before he was elected, Trump has publicly stated that if he is re-elected United States president "will impose tariffs of at least 60% on all Chinese goods."
Later, Trump explained that he did not want to continue the "Sino-US trade war", he just wanted to protect United States goods and industries. Because in Trump's perception, after mainland goods entered the United States, they destroyed the United States steel industry.
In addition to his new policy toward the mainland, Trump is also ready to take action against United States' European "allies."
On July 16, Trump announced his running mate, "James · Vance." Vance has made many negative comments about several countries in Europe.
Taking the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as an example, some European leaders believe that the United States should join the West in strengthening support for Ukraine. But Trump has previously said that his first priority in office is to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Vance has also repeatedly criticized United States' support for Ukraine, and at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, Vance made it clear that "Europe should realize that United States is going to 'pivot to East Asia.'"
Schmid, a SPD MP in Germany, has warned that after Trump takes office again, a new round of "trade war" between the United States and Europe is likely to occur. Why is it a new round?
Because in his first term, Trump not only started the trade war between China and the United States, but he also started the trade war between the United States and Europe, raising tariffs on steel and aluminum in the European Union.
From the current point of view, Trump and Vance want to sacrifice the interests of Ukraine and end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Trump has publicly "encouraged" Russia to launch an attack on non-paying NATO members, while Vance has also said that "Putin does not pose an existential threat to Europe."
Zelenskyy is also panicked right now, and he spoke with Trump on the phone on July 19, and although Trump said that the two sides communicated well, he did not mention whether he would continue to assist Ukraine.
On July 20, Zelensky delivered a national address, hinting at his willingness to negotiate and communicate with Putin. It is likely that he failed to reach a final consensus with Trump and showed weakness to Putin in advance.
If United States really stops aiding Ukraine, the EU will most likely not continue to invest, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely to end.
Trump is not only targeting allies, he also has a new policy of "reform" for United States businesses. What is it?
United States has announced a new automotive policy, not only introducing new light and medium-duty vehicle emission standards, but also increasing tax incentives to encourage the United States electric vehicle industry, in addition, Biden plans to impose 100% tariffs on imported electric vehicles from the mainland.
On July 18, Trump said that once he takes office, he will scrap the Biden administration's electric vehicle policy and impose a 100% tariff on electric vehicles imported from Mexico. This has caused dissatisfaction among some car companies.
According to media reports, Trump also plans to cut clean energy projects and remove restrictions on the fossil fuel industry. Some experts in the field of environment and energy have suspected that Trump is likely to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement again.
In general, Trump emphasized "United States first" and let United States go back to the path of "isolationism." But judging from Trump's performance in the last term, he seems to have gone crookedly, making United States society more divided, severely hitting the United States economy and affecting the development of foreign relations.
The United States election in November is not far away, and if Trump wins, where will he take United States?
Resources:
[1] China News Network "Biden announces withdrawal from the 2024 United States presidential race!" Trump responds 20240722
[2] The Paper, "Trump: If re-elected, he will not fight a trade war with China, but..." 20240205
[3] The Paper, "Trump-Vance Combination Heightens Europe's Unease, EU Diplomat: Europe Is Like a 'Ship Welcoming the Storm'" 20240717
[4] The Paper, "Trump Speaks: Repeal Biden's Electric Vehicle Policy When He Takes Office" 20240719