Since 2024, the bank wealth management market has recovered rapidly, and the growth rate of product scale has far exceeded that of the same period in previous years, which is not only reflected in the numbers, but also in the daily life of front-line wealth managers and customers.
As a senior wealth manager, Zhao Qi (pseudonym) noticed that in recent months, investor confidence has gradually recovered, and the number of customers who come to the outlets to consult or buy wealth management products has increased significantly, even exceeding expectations.
Since the beginning of 2024, wealth management products have shown an astonishing growth momentum, not only the number of existing products has increased steadily, but the scale of existence has also shown a significant expansion trend, approaching the 30 trillion yuan mark. This trend indicates that in the future, wealth management products will continue to become an important option in investors' asset allocation, and will also face more opportunities and challenges.
There has been a shift in customer acceptance
"Ding Dong", the prompt tone of a new message interrupted Zhao Qi's thoughts. The opening message is an inquiry from an old client asking if the investment products that have been hot in the market recently are suitable for his portfolio. Such messages and phone calls have been received several times a day almost every day in recent times, which was unimaginable in the last year.
At the beginning of 2024, the market is still filled with a cautious mood, affected by the previous "net breaking tide" and "redemption tide", investors have always been conservative about wealth management products. However, with the gradual improvement of economic data, market confidence began to recover, and funds gradually returned.
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Judging from the current market situation, he suggested that customers can appropriately adjust their investment strategies, increase some growth asset allocation, and remain vigilant against risks. He believes that while the market is strong, volatility has also increased, and investors need more professional guidance to deal with the complex and volatile market environment.
The recovery of the wealth management market is not only a digital increase, but also a return to investor confidence. At 9 o'clock in the morning, as soon as the bank opened, there were already several customers seated in the waiting area, each with different needs, but the same thing was their attention and interest in wealth management products.
As a financial advisor, Zhang Chen's job (not his real name) is not only to sell products, but also to help clients understand the market and make informed financial decisions.
"Despite the decline in product revenue in the past two years, stability is still the most important thing for many customers. With the deepening of investor education, customers are becoming more and more familiar with the performance of net-worth wealth management products, and the acceptance of such products has increased significantly", in asset allocation, Zhang Chen is more inclined to recommend the steady growth of fixed income plans to investors, "This part of the product has performed relatively well recently, with less drawdowns and more stable returns."
After the implementation of the "new regulations on asset management", the days of capital preservation and just redemption are gone, lying down to make money has become a thing of the past, and the inherent image of wealth management products has also been broken. Over time, the market has also shown its resilience and vitality, and those wealth management products with good returns and less drawdowns have gradually won the trust of investors.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that since 2024, the wealth management market has continued to recover rapidly, and the growth rate of scale has far exceeded that of the same period in previous years, mainly driven by the decline in bond market interest rates and the suspension of "manual interest supplement". Among them, in the first quarter, the downward trend in bond market interest rates is conducive to the recovery of fixed income wealth management net value; At the same time, with the decline in deposit interest rates, the "disconnection" of long-term large-amount certificates of deposit and the improvement of wealth management yields, the price comparison effect has boosted the growth of wealth management scale. In the second quarter, the interest rate of the bond market continued to run at a low level, and the incremental contribution to the wealth management market was limited, but since April, the "manual interest supplement" has been suspended, driving the large-scale relocation of bank deposits to non-bank institutions such as wealth management, and the expansion of wealth management has been further accelerated.
The scale of product existence is approaching 30 trillion
Since the beginning of the year, the wealth management market has shown a strong recovery momentum, and the scale of existence has achieved a continuous recovery. On the other hand, depositors have transferred traditional deposits to wealth management products in pursuit of higher returns, which has also made the scale of wealth management products continue to rise.
According to the monitoring data of Puyi Standard, in the past six months, the total number and scale of existing wealth management products have been growing steadily. The total number of existing products increased by 419 from 41,052 in March to 41,471 in June. The scale of existence also increased from 26.20 trillion yuan in March to 29.29 trillion yuan in June.
At the end of June, although the scale of wealth management products declined, falling to 28.07 trillion yuan, it ushered in a "rebound" in July, as of July 24, the scale of wealth management products was 29.58 trillion yuan, which has approached the 30 trillion yuan mark. The market view is that the decline in the scale of wealth management products at the end of June may be related to the tightening of liquidity at the end of the quarter, and enterprises and individuals may need cash to meet settlement needs, resulting in short-term redemption pressure. The "rebound" in July may be due to the fact that after the quarter-end effect, market funds have flowed back into wealth management products, and wealth management products are just around the corner to exceed 30 trillion yuan.
Recently, various wealth management companies have disclosed the performance of some wealth management products, among which, according to the investment report of the second quarter of 2024 of Everbright Wealth Management's fixed-income wealth management product "Sunshine Golden Season Tianli Zhenying No. 3", the annualized rate of return of the product since its establishment is 2.8128%; Another fixed-income wealth management product, Sunshine Jinfengli 174 A, Sunshine Jinfengli 174 J, and Sunshine Jinfengli 174 X products have all had annualized yields of more than 3% since their establishment.
According to the data disclosed by the WeChat official account of Ping An Wealth Management, the company's closed-end fixed income products have yields of 1.36%, 2.64% and 5.08% respectively in the past three months, half a year and one year, while the average returns of wealth management companies in the past three months, half a year and one year are 0.92%, 1.85% and 3.39% respectively.
CMB Wealth Management's partial debt hybrid wealth management product "Zhaozhi Value Select One-Year Holding" has recorded an annualized yield of 4.21% since its establishment, and the company's equity-based wealth management product "Zhaozhuo Value Select Equity Wealth Management Plan" has recorded an increase of 25.2% since its establishment, with a customer retention rate of 75% and a repurchase rate of 38%.
Affected by the reduction of deposit interest rates and the "relocation of deposits", the good performance of income will further attract investors to buy wealth management products. Ai Yawen, an analyst at the Rong 360 Digital Technology Research Institute, predicts that the rapid growth of the scale of wealth management products reflects the pursuit of stable returns by investors in the current market environment and the improvement of the competitiveness of wealth management products. It is expected that the wealth management product market will continue to attract capital inflows in the future, and the scale is expected to further expand. At present, the growth rate of wealth management scale is rising rapidly, and it is expected that the scale of wealth management products is expected to exceed 30 trillion yuan in September, October, and even August in the second half of the year.
In the second half of the year, wealth management yields faced downward pressure
Bank wealth management has shown a strong trend of expansion, and when it comes to the next stage of market development trends and investment strategies, a number of wealth management companies have also revealed positive signals.
In an interview with a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, the relevant person in charge of Ping An Wealth Management pointed out that looking forward to the second half of the year, the scale of the wealth management market is expected to rise steadily, affected by factors such as the reduction of bond market interest rates, the reduction of underlying high-yield assets, and the scarcity of coupon assets, the yield of the wealth management market in the second half of the year may face certain downward pressure. However, bank wealth management is still very attractive due to its stability and profitability, especially among investors with low risk appetite.
Regarding the product investment strategy, the person in charge emphasized that "in the bond market, the current bond yield is at a historical low, and there is little room for further sharp decline." In terms of interest rates, we will pay attention to the opportunity for sentiment repair after the key varieties return to the previous key points. In terms of specific operations, we will focus on maintaining the liquidity of the portfolio, strictly control the duration exposure and credit risk of the portfolio, and actively optimize the allocation structure according to changes in the market environment, so as to create long-term and stable investment returns. In terms of the equity market, we will focus on structural band growth opportunities, the dividend effect of high-end manufacturing engineers is still significant, and the global market share of advantageous products is expected to increase. Under the internal circulation, the development of the service economy is rapid, the volume and price are rising, and the inflection point of profitability will appear."
In the third quarter of the market outlook and product investment strategy, Everbright Financial Management mentioned that looking forward to the third quarter, the fundamentals are expected to maintain a low-slope recovery trend, external demand ahead of domestic demand to repair, the acceleration of the supply of local bonds, the discount of equipment renewal loans, and the continuous increase in real estate policies may bring some support to the fundamentals. The People's Bank of China will pay more attention to the expected guidance of long-term interest rates, and the volatility of the bond market may intensify in the short term, and long-term interest rates are still facing certain adjustment pressure, and it is difficult to break through the previous low in the short term.
"In the second half of 2024, the scale of wealth management is expected to rise steadily, but the growth rate will slow down compared with the first half of the year", Wen Bin further pointed out that in the second half of the year, as the incremental impact of the suspension of manual interest payments is basically over, deposits will gradually return to the banking system, and the growth rate of the scale of existence will slow down, or around 31 trillion yuan at the end of the year. In terms of yield, the yield of fixed-income wealth management "first up and then down" in the first half of the year, and the yield of cash management wealth management fell smoothly, and stabilized in the short term; In the second half of the year, wealth management yields are expected to still face some downward pressure.
For wealth management companies, Ai Yawen suggested that wealth management companies attract more investors by optimizing investment strategies and product design to cope with market changes and regulatory requirements, such as exploring diversified investment strategies, including appropriate allocation of long-term, high-performance equity funds, convertible bond funds, etc., as well as popular technology, green, pension wealth management products, etc. Of course, there is also a need to be more cautious when it comes to risk management.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Song Yitong