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△Typhoon Gemei Track Probability Forecast (European Meteorological Center EC/Fa)
People's Voice of the World, July 24, Beijing Express In the blink of an eye, the "great heat" of the traditional 24 solar terms has arrived. This week's (July 22-July 28) national weather stage, in the opinion of experts, presents complex characteristics. In most parts of the country, the peak of summer heat has arrived, and it is also the peak period of rainfall in North China and Northeast China. At the same time, typhoons and strong convection are also in the active phase. The "Four Heavenly Kings" at this time of the week are not simple. In particular, it is important to pay attention to the changes in the weather pattern driven by Typhoon No. 3 "Gemei" this year (2024), as well as the extreme weather that may result.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that according to the analysis of the latest meteorological data, tomorrow (25th) afternoon and night, after Typhoon "Gemei" landed in Fujian, it will continue to move inland. After that, the low-pressure vortex will continue northward. Although the later path variables are larger, the northern regions may also be greatly affected. Among them, North China and Northeast China should be alert to the possibility of extreme heavy rainfall during the 28th-29th period. Compared with last year's (2023) typhoon Doksuri, the rainfall caused by Gemei today is shorter; However, short-term rainfall may be more intense because of the greater amount of water vapour it carries.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to experts, judging from the current forecast, after the landfall of "Gemei", the intensity of the typhoon in the inland will weaken due to the increase of friction loss, and the average guiding height layer will decline; Therefore, the focus in the later stage is not to look at the form of the 500 hPa subtropical high, but how the anticyclone on the east side of the typhoon over 700 hPa is guided. It is expected that by the 27th, it will move northwest. From Jiangxi through the junction of Anhui and Hubei, after entering Henan, there may be no weight to the west.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to the analysis of experts, when it reaches the central and southern parts of Hebei or the northeastern and western parts of Shanxi, it will have an eastward component after crossing the subtropical high ridge. Compared with last year's typhoon "Doksuri", this typhoon has no high pressure on the north side, and it can be described as unimpeded; Therefore, there is a high probability that it will soon enter Northeast China from North China. Therefore, the rainfall in northern China will be significantly shorter than that of "Dusuri", and it may only be one day.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Is it really going to be so short? In this regard, the expert further explained that through the numerical forecast of the situation field of the tripartite meteorological agencies of China, Europe and the United States, it can be seen that the Central Meteorological Observatory of the mainland reported that when it arrived in Henan in the later stage, the residual vortex of the typhoon was basically dispersed and pulled into a shear line; For example, the breakfast has changed from "oil cake" to "fritters". However, the numerical models of European and American meteorological agencies still report very clearly the low-pressure vortex of typhoons; That is, all the way to the north, and finally to the northeast. In particular, the path forecast of the EC numerical model ensemble forecast of the European Meteorological Centre shows that the later variables are large.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
It is worth noting that experts pointed out that in combination with the forecast of the whole layer of precipitable water at different times from the 26th to the 29th, the water vapor brought by "Gemei" this time is surprisingly large. In Henan, Hebei, Liaoning and other places, more than 80 mm can be seen. For the northern region, at least in the past 10 years, there has never been such a large amount of water vapor; At present, it can be seen that there is more water vapor than last year's typhoon "Doksuri". Referring to the situation from the 28th to the 29th, there may still be a high-altitude trough in the north throwing cold air southward; Therefore, once the cold air and the remnant vortex of the typhoon are combined, the precipitation has always been "king bomb" level. The intensity of short-term rainfall in North China is likely to exceed that of "Dusuri". However, because the system moves quickly and lasts for a short time, the total amount of the process should be weaker than that of "Dussuri".
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Industry insiders emphasized that it is not difficult to find that the situation is also not difficult to find, as experts said, North China and Northeast China from the 28th to the 29th should see heavy rainfall; During this period, it is possible to experience extremely heavy rains locally. However, because the specific situation of the intersection of cold and warm is still in a state to be determined, the details of the later rainfall are still inconclusive. Therefore, the meteorological department will continue to revise it in the future; After all, the closer you get, the more reliable it is. As the saying goes, let's look at the trend first, and then determine the details. (Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
*Editor's Note:
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