Originally thought that Thursday A shares would be scared half to death, the morning will accelerate the fall, unexpectedly or not panicked, a dead pig is not afraid of boiling water hot posture, but also a yin fall, neither panic disk killing, but also no copy of the chassis entry, such a trend obviously does not meet the strict conditions for buying the bottom. In the morning, the volume shrank by about 19 billion in half an hour, so the shrinkage is not stopped, and there is no momentum to rise at all, of course, it is difficult to have a big kill.
Last night's plunge in U.S. stocks, still failed to bring panic to today's market, in the final analysis, it is the reason for the amount of energy, continue to measure, no one plays, there is really no leek cut, and the funds that are still sticking to it have already lost a lot, and they are ready to see death as home. Therefore, it is very difficult to fight the panic market, and the future of the midline is slim, and it is still impossible to participate. The short-term can only reduce the conditions for entering the market, and there will not be too much risk in entering the market after continuing to fall, but it cannot be ambitious if it rises. If the low level is missed, wait for the price to rise, don't chase it, only wait for the amount to continue to amplify, the market begins to be active, and then you can intervene in the callback.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen indices refreshed their lows again in early trading, and are still declining, the Shanghai Composite Index is slowly approaching the 2867-point gap below, and there is still no sign of stopping, and finally in securities, real estate, and the Chinese word head led by a slight pull-up. With the collapse of high-dividend varieties, other sectors have a chance, in fact, other sectors do have certain opportunities, but some of the funds flowing out of high-dividend varieties choose to wait and see, subject to the shrinkage of the overall amount of energy, so the intraday opportunities are still very limited. It's just that the performance of the disk has changed greatly compared with the previous two trading days, and the number of rising stocks has increased significantly.
Now the market is not rescued by external forces can not stop the market from falling, but it is a pity that Guo Jia's team is still inactive today, the four major banks, the three major telecommunications, and the two barrels of oil are all falling, and the four major ETFs that protect the disk are also all down. Now the bears are indeed the end of the strong crossbow, but the problem is that the bulls are weaker, there is no power to resist at all, this position only Guo Jia's team takes the lead in carrying the banner of rebound, in order to give the market confidence, otherwise no one dares to enter the market, and the confidence to do long will continue to be eroded. Even if there is a rebound, it will be powerless, let alone a strong money-making effect.
If objectively speaking, today's A-shares have become like this, it is already very strong, very competitive, Bi Jian last night U.S. stocks plummeted, crude oil, gold all fell sharply, this morning Asia-Pacific stock market is also down across the board, Hong Kong stocks are also down, although the A-share index has also fallen sharply, but it has changed quickly, individual stocks have risen in a large area, such a good thing really did not expect, it can be said that today's A-shares are relatively resistant. There are several reasons why this is so:
First, the fall of high-dividend varieties has given other sectors some opportunities. But it is still a pattern of stock games.
Second, Tuesday and Wednesday fell for two consecutive days, and the short-term bears' strength was exhausted, and they really couldn't be killed.
Although A-shares did not pay too much for the collapse of U.S. stocks last night in early trading, this is not how strong A-shares are, and it is really impossible to talk to others. There is a world of difference between the two. There is really no need for A-shares to fall for the sake of other people's sharp falls. For a long time, the problem of whether A-shares can keep up with the rise has never changed, and today it is just that there is no sharp fall, and we must not laugh at 50 steps and laugh at 100 steps. Don't expect a seesaw effect between A-shares and U.S. stocks, if U.S. stocks fall sharply as predicted by some Wall Street bears, the global capital markets will be in turmoil. No misfortunes are avoided. Only if U.S. stocks stand tall and move sideways at high levels or fall slightly, can A-shares have any hope of strengthening.
What is strange this morning is that the index index fluctuates in the morning, when it continues to fall, but the number of rising stocks has slowly increased, from more than 700 at the lowest time in the morning, to more than 4,000, but in the process of rising stocks, the amount of energy is still shrinking, and it is very dangerous to not have the amount of general rise. Once the index rises rapidly, if the volume can no longer keep up, the rise of the index and individual stocks will soon fall.
The index fell in early trading, the market as a whole maintained the volume, and as a result, the volume was still shrinking, but the individual stocks rebounded in a large area, and the limited funds were evenly distributed, resulting in the local money-making effect of the market was not obvious, and it was impossible to attract funds to enter the market, and this rebound was difficult to sustain.
Obviously there is no volume, but there is a general rise in individual stocks, why is this?
First, starting from more than ten o'clock, on the time-sharing chart of the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes, the yellow line of the low-table theme suddenly rose sharply, and the white line representing the weight basically did not move much, and the funds suddenly poured into a large number of small and medium-sized theme varieties.
Second, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index and the Science and Technology Innovation Board Index have taken the lead in rising, attracting funds to flow to small and medium-sized theme varieties.
Third, the SSE 50, the CSI 300 weight index continued to fall sharply, and in four days, the previous Jiulianyang was broken through.
Fourth, the short-term transformation of the market style and the inevitable result of the fall of high-dividend group varieties.
Judging from the disk, as the volume can continue to shrink, the large-scale rebound of the theme is also not strong, and there is not much operability. And the rebound of the main varieties of new energy track, photovoltaic, lithium battery, various batteries, new materials, etc., these are all institutional track varieties, basically belong to the serious overfall of the variety, and institutional funds are still flowing out, institutional funds are not confident, these institutional track varieties are difficult to continue to rebound, not to mention that the current hot spot is not a day trip, so this rebound is unable to attract funds into the market.
Next, let's talk about a few hot topics.
1. The central bank carried out a 200 billion yuan 1-year MLF operation today, and the winning interest rate was lowered to 2.30%
The central bank carried out a 1-year MLF operation of 200 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 2.30%, compared with 2.50% previously. In addition, the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 235.1 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 1.70%, the same as before.
According to authoritative experts, the central bank's monetary policy has increased significantly recently. On the one hand, it fully meets the capital needs of financial institutions. On the basis of the practice of carrying out MLF operations on the 15th of each month, an MLF operation window was added on July 25, and the temporary positive and reverse repo operations have been announced in the early stage according to the situation, all of which indicate that the central bank maintains reasonable and abundant liquidity and consolidates the resolute attitude of economic recovery.
2. The four major state-owned banks have officially announced the reduction of deposit interest rates, and the one-year time deposit interest rate has been adjusted to 1.35%
This is a real interest rate cut, which means releasing water, means monetary easing, and means increasing support for the real economy.
When the real economy recovers, the profitability of enterprises will improve, which will inevitably have a positive impact on A-shares. But the improvement of corporate profitability is not overnight, really wait for corporate profitability to improve and then enter the market, daylily are dry, but corporate profitability does not improve, everyone has no confidence, mainly a large number of garbage companies on the overall profitability of the drag.
Interest rate cuts will force banks to move to the stock market, but this is only theoretical, and with the current market conditions, it will be difficult for banks to stimulate the flow of funds to the stock market even if they have negative interest rates. Where the flow of funds depends on the money-making effect, and the spontaneous behavior of funds is not forced out by anyone.
If this is the case, the trading volume will not shrink at all this morning, and the volume in early trading will shrink by 16.6 billion, and the volume can shrink again and again every day.
The interest rate cut is a big positive for the bank, but I didn't expect the bank to fall sharply today, and the reason why the bank has fallen against the trend can only be understood as a big rise, and the good is all negative.
In any case, the decline of banks is a good thing and an opportunity for other sectors, and if banks do not fall, it will be difficult for other sectors to have opportunities.
In any case, the interest rate cut is good for A-shares, a long-term good, but this kind of good is difficult to sustain for the current A-shares.
3. The general price rises in the morning, can it still be maintained at a high level in the afternoon?
To be honest, everyone is naturally happy when it rises, but this kind of immeasurably rising, hot and cold market has no future to talk about.
The immeasurable rise, the most afraid of the general rise, this kind of uninterrupted and undifferentiated general rise is difficult to sustain.
Keep an eye on the trading volume in the afternoon, if you don't increase the volume, the rise of individual stocks will inevitably fall.
If you don't increase the volume, you can hold it first for small rising varieties, and you can increase your position first or reduce your position first. You can not sell, but you must not chase after the rise.
Today is just a style of short-term cutting, only to bring the general rise pattern, the big rise of stocks is only about 140, what to make money, the afternoon focus is to push up the local money-making effect, rather than expand the number of rising stocks. If you still want to expand the range of gains, it is difficult to go far.