Summary: Do you believe in light?
The association said that the adjustment of the photovoltaic industry should be heavy and fast to encourage mergers and acquisitions of enterprises, and today's photovoltaic performance is the strongest.
One encouragement can go up? In fact, photovoltaic has been suffering for a long time.
Today I will talk to you about POE film.
There are four main categories of photovoltaic encapsulation films, among which POE films have high water resistance and high PID resistance.
At present, the mainstream encapsulant films on the market include transparent EVA film, white EVA film, POE film and EPE film.
Compared with EVA film, POE film has better aging resistance, low water vapor transmission rate and PID resistance, and its water vapor transmission rate is only about 1/8 of EVA film, and POE film will not decompose and produce acetic acid when exposed to water, which can effectively reduce the PID effect.
With excellent comprehensive performance, POE adhesive film is mainly used in high-efficiency photovoltaic modules such as double glass and N-type, which can effectively improve the service life and power generation efficiency of photovoltaic modules.
Bifacial modules have driven the increase in POE market share
Bifacial modules can effectively improve the power generation efficiency of photovoltaic modules.
In recent years, with the promotion of PV module cost reduction and efficiency improvement, the market share of bifacial modules in mainland China has increased from 14% in 2019 to 37.4% in 2021, an increase of 23.4 pct.
From 2018 to 2020, the total market share of POE film and co-extruded POE film in mainland China increased from 9.3% to 25.5%, an increase of 16.2pct.
CPIA predicts that by 2030, the market share of monofacial modules and bifacial modules will be basically the same, and the superposition of N-type cells is expected to become one of the main development directions of cell technology in the future, and the combined market share of POE film and co-extruded POE film is expected to further rise.
In addition, the continuous increase in the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in the future is expected to drive the demand for photovoltaic film to continue to rise, and the market penetration rate of superimposed POE film is expected to increase, and the prospect of the POE film industry is promising.
POE industry chain
POE stands for polyolefin elastomer, which is an elastomer obtained by random copolymerization of ethylene and α-olefin.
POE is located in the middle of the industrial chain, and its main upstream core raw materials include α-olefins and metallocene catalysts.
POE has a wide range of downstream applications, and its direct modification of PP materials can be applied to the fields of auto parts, home appliance shells and masks;
After directly modifying PE materials, it can be applied to the field of waterproofing membranes and pipes; It can be blended with PA and PT and can be used in the fields of construction, machinery, electronics, automobiles and daily necessities.
Industry competition
The existing production capacity of POE is mainly concentrated in a small number of foreign enterprises.
Major global POE producers include Dow Chemical, ExxonMobil Corporation, Mitsui Chemicals Corporation, SABIC, LG of Korea and Borealis Co., Ltd., among others.
In 2021, the total global POE production capacity will be capped at about 1.58 million tons, and according to data from Huajing Industry Research Institute, POE production units are usually co-linear with solution polyethylene products such as metallocene LLDPE, so not all units are exclusive to POE.
Among them, Dow Chemical's POE production capacity ranks first in the world, with a maximum of 760,000 tons/year. This is followed by LG in Korea, with a POE capacity of about 280,000 tons per year.
At present, mainland POE is dependent on imports.
From 2017 to 2021, the import volume of POE in mainland China increased from 222,200 tons to 639,900 tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 29.95%; From January to July 2022, the mainland's POE imports were 378,800 tons.
Dow Chemical and ExxonMobil are the most important POE import source enterprises in the mainland, accounting for more than 50% of all mainland POE import source enterprises from 2017 to 2021, accounting for 49.6% in 2022H1.
Compared with the West, the mainland polyolefin industry faces structural shortcomings such as high dependence on foreign technology and meager profits, which is mainly attributed to the overcapacity of low-end polyolefin products, while high-end polyolefin cannot achieve full localization and relies heavily on imports.
In the future, China's high-end polyolefins will develop in the direction of diversification of raw materials, improvement of catalyst technology, coexistence of multiple polymerization processes, large-scale equipment, and emphasis on recycling.
In addition, from the perspective of market performance, the performance of individual stocks in the core performance direction is not strong today, but some concept stocks are strong, and it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm.
(Summarize related concept enterprises, not recommended)
Wanhua Chemical: A comprehensive chemical giant, POE localization is actively promoted.
Satellite Chemical: Deeply cultivate the light hydrocarbon business and extend the industrial chain of new chemical materials.
Dongfang Shenghong: Refining and chemical integration leader, new materials inject new kinetic energy.
Rongsheng Petrochemical: Based on integrated refining and chemical, expand the new material business.
Yueyang Xingchang: Actively promote the polyolefin catalyst project.
Foster: The leader in the film industry, with the strongest ability to guarantee supply.