Von der Leyen's successful re-election, is there a play for EU defense independence?

Eurasia News Weekly, July 3-19, 2024 ESSRA|Eurasia New Observation

▲ Source: Wall Street Journal

▍Hot spots in this issue

• As widely expected, the just-concluded NATO summit did not provide Ukraine with a timetable for joining NATO, but described Ukraine's path to NATO membership as "irreversible" and declared that the decision adopted by the summit and the NATO-Ukraine Council "is a bridge for Ukraine to join NATO." On July 11, NATO also launched the Ukraine Compact, which promised Ukraine that if Russia attacked Ukraine after the end of the current hostilities, the signatories would "decide on appropriate next steps to support Ukraine." While NATO members have tried to distance themselves from Ukraine through these statements, they do promise Kiev concrete actions, including the launch of a centralized command in Germany and a training and analysis center in Poland. The allies also announced the start of the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, while Biden also told Zelensky that Kyiv will receive a new aid package worth $225 million from Washington, which includes Patriot air defense and missile defense systems.
• According to data on July 9, 2024, Russia forces have captured 65 square miles of Ukraine territory in the past month of fighting, while Ukraine has recaptured 13 square miles. Western officials told The New York Times that Ukraine has slowed Russia's territorial advance in eastern Donetsk and halted Russia's counteroffensive near Kharkiv in the northeast as Western-supplied weapons have been replenished. In addition, according to the United States newspaper, United States officials believe that Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial advances in Ukraine in the coming months, as Ukraine's defenses are now reinforced with Western ammunition.
• United Kingdom Ukraine officials, a U.N. monitor and media outlet Bellingcat accused Russia Kh-101 air-to-surface missiles of carrying out deadly attacks on the Okhmadit National Children's Hospital in Kyiv Ukraine, according to the Financial Times, which relies on Western-designed components. Russia has denied targeting hospitals.
• According to the Levada Center, the proportion of Russians who believe that "the situation in Ukraine could escalate into an armed conflict between Russia and NATO" rose from 44% in January 2024 to 58% in June 2024. More worryingly, according to independent pollsters in Russia, the proportion of Russians who are very worried about the "threat of using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict" has risen from 71% in April 2023 to 73% in June 2024. Between April 2023 and June 2024, the proportion of Russians who absolutely or somewhat believe that "Russia's use of nuclear weapons in the current Ukraine conflict" is justified also increased to more than a third.
• Over the past week, Orban in Hungary has begun a series of meetings that he said were aimed at discussing potential options for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. During his trip, he visited Moscow, Beijing and Florida. But just before Orban's first leg began, Putin cooled expectations by announcing at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana that Ukraine could stop fighting only if it agreed to take the "irreversible" measures demanded by Moscow. Putin did not specify what these measures were, but he recently proposed a ceasefire conditional on the full withdrawal of Ukraine from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and the abandonment of its application to join NATO, among other things. According to European Business News, Orban then met with Trump, promising him to "fix the problem." Putin also discussed Ukraine in a separate meeting with India President Narendra Modi on July 9 and thanked the latter for his "efforts" to find a solution to the conflict. According to Bloomberg, Modi said their lengthy discussions had yielded "several ideas" that gave him "hope" about the road ahead, but did not provide further details.
• On July 8-9, Putin hosted Modi at the 22nd India-Russia summit and signed a declaration pledging to "strengthen and deepen the special and privileged strategic partnership"; "Joint efforts to promote bilateral settlement systems using national currencies", agreed to "set a bilateral trade target of $100 billion by 2030", cooperate on the "peaceful use of nuclear energy", and stressed that "a peaceful settlement of conflicts around Ukraine is imperative." According to Bloomberg, for a global "outcast", Putin met with a lot of world leaders. In just two months since starting his fifth presidential term in May, Putin has held more than 20 meetings with leaders from Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. Putin has also made six foreign trips.
• Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orban claimed after private discussions with Republican candidates that if Trump wins the United States presidential election in November, he would quickly ask Russia to negotiate peace with Ukraine, and that he had already developed a "well-founded plan" for that. Speaking at the 2024 Republican Convention of United States on July 18, Trump said he "will end every international crisis created by the current administration, including the terrible military conflicts with Russia and Ukraine," without elaborating on how he will end the conflict.
• Trump's newly chosen running mate, Senator J.D. Vance. Vance) has been one of the main opponents of United States' support for Ukraine in the military conflict with Russia. According to the New York Times, he told Stephen K. Bannon ·, "Honestly, I don't care what happens to Ukraine. Vance has said he opposes arms and money to Ukraine, in part because he believes it would reduce United States' ability to defend itself and meet its own industrial needs. "I don't think it's in United States' interest to fund a virtually never-ending Russian-Ukrainian military conflict," he said. Vance expressed support for Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, this week, and told senators that Putin was "not Hitler."
• In an interview with the United Kingdom Broadcasting Corporation on July 19, Zelenskyy said Ukraine could end the hot war phase of the military conflict by the end of 2024 under a plan that could take the form of a peace summit. "This does not mean retaking all territory by force," he said. I think the power of diplomacy can help," RBC.ua translated version of the interview in Ukraine. Zelenskyy said in a separate comment earlier this week that he planned to invite Russia to the second peace summit in Qatar at the end of July, but according to the Kyiv Independent, the Russia Foreign Ministry refused to attend the second summit, according to the Kyiv Independent.
• According to data on July 16, 2024, Russia forces have captured 61 square miles of Ukraine territory over the past month of fighting, while Ukraine has recaptured 15 square miles. The territory lost by Ukraine this week includes territory lost after the Ukraine open-source intelligence organization DeepState called the village of Urozhaine in the eastern region of Donetsk "collapsed in defense." According to The New York Times, the losses also include the loss of hard-won positions in Ukraine's village of Klinki on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. In addition, according to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia forces have advanced this week to the northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, and they have advanced to within four miles of the T0504 highway, which would be quarantined if the town of Chasov·Yar in Donetsk Oblast, if taken. According to the United Kingdom Financial Times, Orban said in a letter to the EU leadership that based on his recent discussions with China, Russia and Ukraine, the "general view" is that "the intensity of the military conflict will escalate sharply in the near future."
• The attempted assassination of Mr. Trump over the weekend has drawn a buzz among Russia politicians, experts and journalists, with both pro-Kremlin and opponents arguing that the July 13 attack has greatly increased the former president's electoral chances. ·Boris Pastukhov, a liberal political scientist who has Russia now in the country, put it this way: "It was Trump who was shot, but it was Biden who was shot." Experts on both sides of Russia's political divide have also pointed to Trump's assassination attempt as increasing polarization in United States, with some noting that the Kremlin would benefit from this trend.

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Eurasian news

Nuclear security and nuclear safety

1. The UN General Assembly resolution "demands that the Russia Federation urgently withdraw its military personnel and other unauthorized personnel from the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and immediately return sovereignty over the plant to Ukraine under the full control of the Ukrainian authorities." The resolution also "calls on the Federation of Russia to grant timely and full access to all areas of the nuclear safety and security of the Zaporizhzhya NPP until sovereignty over the Zaporizhzhya NPP in Ukraine is returned to Ukraine and full control by the Ukrainian authorities". (World Nuclear News, 12 July 2024)

2. The scramble for all-weather clean energy, coupled with United States's new restrictions on Russia uranium products, is ushering in a "whole new era" for the nuclear fuel market. The spot price of uranium has risen 50% over the past year, averaging US$84 per pound last month and exceeding US$100 per pound earlier this year, as demand continues to outstrip supply, data from data analytics firm UxC shows. United States' new ban on uranium imports from Russia will also further tighten uranium supplies to its utilities. (United Kingdom Financial Times, 11 July 2024)

3. In June 2024, customs offices in the ports of Rostov-on-Don and Murmansk, Russia, conducted exercises to counter the smuggling of nuclear materials. The drill scenario included the detection of radioactive materials. In the scenario of the exercises in Murmansk, nuclear materials were hidden under a cargo of mineral fertilizers with a high level of natural radioactivity. (Dmitry ·Kovchegin, Nuclear Safety Update, Dmitry Kovchegin, July 15, 2024)

4. Russia's Baltic Shipyard began construction of new "nuclear service vessels" for reloading nuclear-powered icebreakers and other surface ships with fuel and transporting radioactive waste. (Dmitry ·Kovchegin, Nuclear Safety Update, Dmitry Kovchegin, July 15, 2024)

5. On July 17, power was restored in southern Russia, after a major nuclear power plant failed the day before, causing widespread blackouts and emergency restrictions across the region. On the afternoon of July 16, a unit at the Rostov nuclear power plant was automatically shut down due to a "false alarm" in the turbine generator safety system, according to state operator Russia's nuclear power company. (Moscow Times, July 17, 2024)

North Korea's nuclear and missile programs

"The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Iran have contributed to Russia's military operation against Ukraine by providing direct military support to Russia, including ammunition and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which has seriously affected Euro-Atlantic security and undermined the global non-proliferation regime," NATO's July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said. (NATO, July 10, 2024)

2. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met with a Russia military delegation visiting Pyongyang, signaling deepening security ties amid escalating tensions on the border between North Korea and Russia. Kim Jong-un received a military delegation led by Russia Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko · the two sides discussed military cooperation, during which the North Korean leader pledged Pyongyang to support Russia operations in Ukraine. (Bloomberg, July 19, 2024)

Iran and its nuclear program

1. The Kremlin said on July 6 that Russia President Vladimir Putin congratulated Iran's reformist candidate Massoud · Pezeshitsyan on his victory in the presidential runoff. (Moscow Times, July 6, 2024)

On July 4, Putin met with Iran's interim President Mohammad · Mohber on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 5, 2024)

Great Power Confrontation / New Cold War

1. NATO's Washington Summit Declaration, issued on July 10, said: "The future of Ukraine lies in NATO. Ukraine is increasingly interoperable and politically integrated with NATO. We welcome the concrete progress that Ukraine has made in the democratic, economic and security reforms needed since the Vilnius summit...... We will continue to support Ukraine's irreversible and full integration into the Euro-Atlantic system, including NATO membership. We reiterate that we will extend an invitation to Ukraine to join NATO as soon as the allies agree and the conditions are met. The decisions taken at the summit by NATO and the NATO-Ukraine Council, together with the work being carried out by the allies, constitute a bridge for Ukraine to join NATO. (NATO, July 10, 2024)

(1) Two sources familiar with the discussions told United States news website Axios that President Biden supported NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's plan to announce that Ukraine would be able to join NATO without completing a Membership Action Plan (MAP). (United States short news site Axios, July 10, 2024)

(2) At this week's military alliance summit in Washington, Ukraine may have moved closer to NATO, but in reality, the military alliance continues to keep Ukraine at arm's length, and the United States election is just around the corner. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 12, 2024)

(3) Former Deputy Assistant Secretary General of NATO for urgent security challenges, Jamie · Shay, said that in fact, using the word [irreversible] "will not change anything, because NATO will not extend an invitation to Kyiv until the end of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict." At the same time, it's unclear how many of the latest moves can be sustained, especially with Trump back in office. (The Times of Japan, July 12, 2024)

2. NATO's July 10 Washington Summit Declaration stated: "Russia seeks to fundamentally reconstruct the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. The all-domain threat posed by Russia to NATO will remain for a long time. Russia is rebuilding and expanding its military capabilities and continues to violate its airspace and carry out provocative activities. We stand in solidarity with all allies affected by these actions. NATO does not seek confrontation and does not pose a threat to Russia. We remain open to maintaining communication channels with Moscow to reduce risks and prevent escalation. (NATO, July 10, 2024)

"Russia has also intensified aggressive hybrid operations against its allies throughout the Euro-Atlantic region, including through proxies," NATO's Washington Summit Declaration issued on 10 July...... Russia's actions will not stop the support and determination of the allies for Ukraine. (NATO, July 10, 2024)

(1) United States intelligence discovered earlier this year that the Russian government was planning to assassinate the chief executive of Germany arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, which has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, according to five United States and Western officials familiar with the matter. The conspiracy is one of Russia's plans to assassinate defense industry executives supporting Ukraine in Europe, according to these sources. The plan to kill ·Armin Papperger, who led Germany manufacturing industry in support of Kyiv, was the most mature. When the United States learned of the plan, they informed the Germany, and Germany security was able to protect Papeg and thwart the plot. A senior official of the Germany government confirmed that the United States had warned Berlin about the conspiracy. (United States, July 11, 2024)

A. As Russia turns its attention to the rising costs of Western support for Ukraine, with a rapid increase in destructive attacks or conspiracies led by Moscow, Europe has been grappling with the situation. "Russia is fighting the West within the West, on Western territory," said a senior NATO official, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. "Our focus is really sharpened at this point." Even if the risk of being detected through social media is greater, Moscow seems willing to cast a wide net for allies. (The Washington Post, July 11, 2024)

(2) NATO diplomats confirmed reports of a Russia conspiracy to assassinate Papeg. (United Kingdom, 12 July 2024)

(3) The Kremlin has denied that Russia is plotting to assassinate the head of Europe's largest ammunition manufacturer because of its support for Ukraine. (United Kingdom, 12 July 2024)

4. On July 11, the United States launched the Ukraine Compact with 32 allies and partners. "After the end of the current hostilities, in the event of a future armed attack by Russia against Ukraine, a collective meeting at the highest level should be quickly convened to determine the appropriate next steps to support Ukraine's exercise of its right to self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter, including the provision of prompt and sustained security assistance and the imposition of economic and other costs on Russia," the compact states. ”

5. "We can – and will – defend every inch of NATO's territory, and we will do it together," Biden said at the North Atlantic Council. (Moscow Times, July 11, 2024)

6. Christopher Cavoli, commander of the United States European Command and supreme ·commander of the Allied Forces in Europe, said that while NATO's main task is to deter any adversary from attacking, 32 countries are ready to defend every inch of the alliance's territory if needed. Cavalli said that when Russia invaded Ukraine, NATO had four battle groups in Eastern Europe. Now there are eight. Hundreds of thousands of troops are now on higher alert, he said. "In Ukraine, we pay more attention to the stocks, ammunition and supplies at hand," the general said. (United States Department of Defense website, July 10, 2024)

7. NATO leaders say Trump's biggest complaint – the failure of allies to meet defense spending targets – has been significantly addressed, with 23 member states now spending 2% or more of their gross domestic product. By the time Trump left office, only nine member states had reached that goal. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 12, 2024)

(1) Trump intends to withdraw from NATO. In the early morning hours of July 12, 2018, as the president's motorcade drove in the morning light toward the summit of the Western military alliance, he called his national security adviser. "We were treated unfairly," Mr. Trump said. "By January 1, all countries must commit to [increasing defense spending]...... Otherwise we will withdraw and no longer defend those countries that have not done so. (United Kingdom Financial Times, 5 July 2024)

8. Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned NATO allies on July 9 ahead of the leaders' summit not to take measures that could drag NATO into the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine against Russia's forces. Speaking at Ankara airport before flying to Washington for the summit of NATO leaders, Erdogan said: "While designing steps to support Ukraine, we also adhere to our principled position not to make NATO a party to a military conflict." (Bloomberg, July 9, 2024)

9. Germany Defense Minister Pistorius made harsh remarks on the eve of the NATO summit in Washington, criticizing the German government for approving a budget increase of less than one-fifth of what he said was needed for the German army. "I got a lot less than I asked for. This annoyed me because it meant I couldn't ...... Something starts with the speed that the threat level requires," Pistorius said in a July 8 speech in Alaska, where he was visiting Germany troops ahead of the three-day NATO summit in Washington. (United Kingdom Financial Times, 9 July 2024)

Russia Defense Minister Belousov and United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discussed reducing the risk of "possible escalation" in a phone call, Russia's Defense Ministry said on July 12. The call was initiated by Moscow after Washington announced plans to deploy long-range missiles in Germany, a decision the Kremlin warned could mean a resurgence of Cold War-style confrontation. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 12, 2024)

(1) United States plans to begin deploying non-nuclear SM-6 missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles and the development of hypersonic weapons in Germany in 2026, in response to which Russia is preparing military countermeasures. Deputy Minister Ryabkov told Interfax: "We will not be nervous, we will not be emotional, we will first develop a military countermeasure to this new game." In a separate comment published by the Russia Foreign Ministry, Ryabkov said that Moscow had anticipated this decision and that Russia had begun to prepare "compensatory countermeasures" in advance. (New York Times, July 11, 2024)

(2) Former United States Deputy Secretary of State Rose · Gottemoeller noted that the current plan is to "sporadically deploy" new United States complexes in Germany, rather than permanent deployments. This, she believes, means, first of all, the use of weapons by NATO countries in the exercises. She added that the timing of the deployment in 2026 is interesting because the New START will expire and the NPT Review Conference will take place. (Kommersant, 11 July 2024)

France, Germany, Italy and Poland plan to design and manufacture long-range missiles, and Europe is stepping up its efforts to strengthen its military capabilities. (Bloomberg, July 11, 2024)

12. According to Levada, the proportion of Russians who believe that "the situation in Ukraine could escalate into an armed conflict between Russia and NATO" rose from 44% in January 2024 to 58% in June 2024. (Russia Affairs, July 4, 2024)

13. According to opinion polls conducted by Levada in May 2015 and June 2024, the percentage of Russia who listed United States and United Kingdom as the main allies of the USSR in the Great Patriotic War (the latter is the Russia's description of the war in which the USSR participated in 1941-1945) has decreased significantly, but is still above 40%. Levada also found in a June 2024 poll that 88 percent of Russians believe that Germany is the main opponent of the Soviet Union in that war, 33 percent of Russians believe that Japan is the main opponent of the Soviet Union in that war, and 28 percent of Russians believe that Italy is the main opponent of the Soviet Union in that war. Respondents in May 2015 and June 2024 don't seem to know the history very well: the proportion of Russians who believe that United States is the Soviet Union's opponent in that war has tripled from 2 percent in May 2005 to 6 percent in June 2024. During the same period, the share of Russians who believed that United Kingdom was the Soviet Union's opponent in that war rose from 1 percent to 5 percent. (Russia Affairs, July 9, 2024)

14. United States General Cavalli, commander of United States European Command and Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, said at the annual meeting of the Aspen Security Forum on July 18:

(1) "(Ukraine) Local results are very, very important...... But we can't have any illusions...... After the end of the conflict in Ukraine, regardless of the outcome, we will face a very, very big Russia problem. We will be faced with a situation in which Russia is reorganizing its forces, it is on the borders of NATO, led by essentially the same people as it is now, convinced that we are adversaries and very, very angry. (Voice of United States, July 18, 2024)

(2) Russia launched a second military operation against Ukraine's neighbors, and this process of force generation became obsolete in an instant. NATO had to once again focus on the defense of the collective territory. Speaking at the annual meeting of the Aspen Security Forum on July 18, Cavalli said: "We need a standing army, and a standing army at a standing level, geographically focused on specific areas. Therefore, we have developed ...... action plan to achieve this goal. The plans, which are aimed at northwestern Europe, central Europe and southeastern Europe, are "classic plans that describe how to defend a particular geographical area, what forces and methods to use," the general said. "This has led to a large number of operations that we in NATO are currently undertaking." (United States Department of Defense website, July 18, 2024)

15. In his speech to the 2024 United States Republican convention on July 18, Trump said:

(1) "I will put an end to every international crisis created by the current administration, including the terrible military conflict with Russia and Ukraine, which would never happen if I were president." "During President Bush's administration, Russia attacked Georgia. During the administration of President Ma, Russia occupied Crimea. During the current government, Russia has its eye on the whole of Ukraine. Under President Trump, Russia took nothing. (Institute for the Study of War, July 19, 2024)

(2) "The catastrophe [in Afghanistan] emboldened Russia, which launched a special military operation against Ukraine." (New York Times, July 19, 2024) In his speech at the Republican National Convention on July 18, Trump mentioned Russia nine times and Ukraine three times. In contrast, he did not mention these two countries in his 2020 General Assembly speech.

16. United States intelligence agencies have warned that Russia may arm Yemen Houthis with advanced anti-ship missiles in retaliation for the Biden administration's support for Ukraine to strike targets in Russia with United States weapons. The White House has launched a covert operation to try to stop Moscow from sending missiles to the Iran-backed Houthis. The United States government's diplomatic efforts to block Moscow's missile deliveries to Yemen include using third countries to persuade Putin not to join Iran in supplying weapons to the Houthis, according to United States officials, but United States officials declined to identify the country. (Wall Street Journal, July 19, 2024)

17. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO will establish a command center in Germany to oversee and coordinate NATO's military assistance and training projects in support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will be operational in September 2024. Stoltenberg said the command center would be staffed by 700 staff to help coordinate NATO member countries' support for Ukraine. (Institute for the Study of War, July 18, 2024)

18. The Kremlin said it considered the outcome of last week's NATO summit a "threat" to Russia and said there was no reason to start negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict. Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said: "NATO has shown its determination to remain our enemy." (Bloomberg, July 14, 2024)

More than 45 European leaders, including Zelenskyy, held a summit of the European Political Community in the United Kingdom on July 18. United Kingdom Prime Minister Kir · Starmer, sitting next to Zelenskyy, said at the opening of the summit: "We will face aggression on this continent together, because the threat from Russia is throughout Europe." (New York Times, July 18, 2024)

(1) Zelensky briefed Kir · Starmer's senior team, and his appearance was intended to demonstrate United Kingdom's unwavering support for Ukraine's anti-Russian military operation. Zelenskyy became the first foreign leader to attend a cabinet meeting in person in United Kingdom since former United States President Bill · Clinton in 1997. (New York Times, July 18, 2024)

(2) Dr. Fion·a Hill was appointed by Starmer and Secretary of State John · Healy to co-lead the Major Strategic Defence Review of the United Kingdom Armed Forces. The review will focus on several key areas, including ensuring United Kingdom's continued leadership in NATO, strengthening homeland security, supporting Ukraine against Russia's aggression, modernizing and sustaining nuclear deterrent forces, and adapting military services and equipment programs to meet new challenges. (Durham University, 16 July 2024)

20. The Prime Minister of Norway said he does not think any United States president will withdraw support for Ukraine or abandon NATO, as the defense alliance benefits all member states. "I will not accept such predictions," said Norway's prime minister, Støre. (Bloomberg, July 18, 2024)

21. Stoltenberg announced on July 17 that Patrick · Turner had been appointed head of NATO's representative office (NRU) in Ukraine. Turner is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, having served at the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence before serving as NATO's Assistant Secretary General for Defense Policy and Planning from 2018 to 2022. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 17, 2024)

22. Two and a half years after Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz vowed to reform the German army, his government's proposed budget for 2025 calls for only a slight increase in defense spending. To fulfill this commitment, Germany Defense Minister Pistorius has called for an increase of 6.7 billion euros ($7.3 billion) in this year's budget of 52 billion euros ($57 billion). He only got 1.2 billion euros. (New York Times, July 19, 2024)

23. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on 18 July that she hopes to launch the European Defence Union in her second term to help counter cross-border threats within the EU, starting with the new European Air Defense Shield and cyber defence initiatives. (Institute for the Study of War, July 18, 2024)

Missile defense

"NATO's deterrence and defense posture is based on an appropriate mix of nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities, complemented by space and cyber capabilities," NATO's July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said. (NATO, July 10, 2024)

Nuclear Arms Control/Space

"We condemn Russia's irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive nuclear signals, including its announcement of the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus, as a demonstration of its strategic gesture of intimidation," NATO's July 10 Washington Summit Declaration said. Russia has increased its reliance on nuclear weapons systems and continues to diversify its nuclear forces, including the development of new nuclear systems and the deployment of short- and medium-range dual-strike capabilities, all of which pose a growing threat to the alliance. Russia has violated, selectively fulfilled and reneged on long-standing arms control obligations and commitments. "We oppose the deployment of nuclear weapons in orbit around the Earth," the statement said. (NATO, July 10, 2024)

2. NATO's July 10 Washington Summit Declaration stated: "As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance." NATO reaffirms all its decisions, principles and commitments to NATO's nuclear deterrence, arms control policy and non-proliferation and disarmament objectives, as set out in the 2022 Strategic Vision and the 2023 Vilnius communiqué. (NATO, July 10, 2024)

3. Cost projections for the United States Air Force's new Sentinel ICBM have increased again, with the project now estimated to cost taxpayers $141 billion, 81 percent higher than projected four years ago. (Bloomberg, July 6, 2024)

4. According to the Levada Center, the percentage of Russians who believe that "the situation in Ukraine could escalate into an armed conflict between Russia and NATO" rose from 44% in January 2024 to 58% in June 2024. More worryingly, according to independent pollsters in Russia, the proportion of Russians who are very worried about the "threat of using nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict" has risen from 71% in April 2023 to 73% in June 2024. Between April 2023 and June 2024, the proportion of Russians who absolutely or somewhat believe that "Russia's use of nuclear weapons in the current Ukraine conflict" is justified also increased from 29% to 34%, more than a third. Over the same period, the percentage of Russians who believe that Russia's use of nuclear weapons is unjustified or certainly unjustified has decreased, but remains in the majority (56% in April 2023 and 52% in June 2024). (Russia Affairs, July 5, 2024)

5. The May-June 2024 poll of "Russia Fields" showed that "opposition to the use of nuclear weapons in the course of Ukraine's 'military operation'" prevailed in all three respondent "groups" mentioned above: "doves", "loyalists" and "hawks". The percentage of people who believe that the use of nuclear weapons is acceptable is lowest among doves (8%) and highest among hawks (38%). (Russia Affairs, July 11, 2024)

6. United States President Joe Biden said at a press conference on July 11: "The last time I spoke to Putin was to get him to work on an arms control agreement for nuclear weapons in space. But little progress has been made. (United States White House, July 11, 2024)

7. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev said: "We have the moral and legal right to respond adequately, symmetrically or asymmetrically to direct damage to our security and sovereignty. This is established in our Basic Principles of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence, etc. (Arguments and Facts, July 17, 2024) Senior Russia officials continue to claim that damage to Russia's sovereignty constitutes a first-use nuclear weapons clause codified in Russia's strategic documents, although neither Russia's 2014 military doctrine nor the 2020 Basic Principles of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence of the Russia Federation explicitly mention this provision. Medvedev's latest statements prove once again that Russia's strategists may be busy revising Russia's doctrinal documents in order to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.

8. Russia Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov did not rule out the possible deployment of missiles by Moscow, including "nuclear equipment" missiles, in response to the deployment of weapons in Germany by United States. He was quoted by the Interfax news agency as saying: "I do not rule out any option. "Ryabkov did not specify where and what kind of missiles could be deployed. (Medusa, July 18, 2024)

Cybersecurity/Artificial Intelligence

1. European leaders at the NATO summit said that Russia is waging a "shadow war" against European countries through cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage and other measures, and now is the time to recognize this and respond. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 11, 2024)

2. NATO is helping to fund a project to find ways to keep the Internet up and running in the event of an attack on submarine cables for civilian and military communications that cross European waters. Researchers, including academics from the United States, Iceland, Sweden and Switzerland, say they hope to develop a way to seamlessly reroute internet traffic from undersea cables to satellite systems in the event of sabotage or natural disasters. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Science for Peace and Security Program has approved grants of up to 400,000 euros ($433,600) for the $2.5 million project, with in-kind contributions from research institutions, according to documents seen by Bloomberg. (Bloomberg, July 9, 2024)

3. Retired United States Army General Mark · Milley said that in the next 10-15 years, robots and other intelligent machinery will account for one-third of the total number of U.S. troops. (United States short news site Axios, July 10, 2024)

4. Finland authorities have reported an increase in GPS "failures" over the past week, with most of the interference from aviation and nautical GPS and radars coming from within Russia. (Institute for the Study of War, July 10, 2024)

5. United States designated two members of the Russia hacker group Russia Cyber Army Reborn (CARR) Yu·liya Vladi·mirovna Pankratova (Pankratova) and Denis Olegovich Degtyarenko (·· Dergyarenko) in cyber operations against United States critical infrastructure. (United States Department of the Treasury, July 19, 2024)

6. The United States Space Force revealed that the United States is about to deploy a new ground-based jammer designed to prevent Chinese or Russia satellites from transmitting information about the United States military during a conflict. (Bloomberg, July 19, 2024)

7. Russia's Ministry of Digital Communications said on July 19 that the country's airlines and banks did not appear to be affected by Microsoft's massive outage, which has disrupted flights and operations around the world, and called Moscow's measures against Western sanctions a shield against digital chaos. (Moscow Times, July 19, 2024)

8. Finland cybersecurity firm WithSecure warned that the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris "face a greater risk of malicious cyber activity than previous Olympics." In a July 15 report, the company's director of threat intelligence predicted that "hacktivists allied with pro-Russian countries will almost certainly try to sabotage the Olympics in some way." The report classifies "threat actors" into four categories: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, and speculates on their intentions and capabilities. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 15, 2024)

antiterrorism

"Terrorism in all its forms and manifestations is the most immediate and unequal threat to the security of our citizens and to international peace and prosperity. The threats we face are global and interconnected," the NATO Washington summit declaration said. (NATO, July 10, 2024)

2. The unified press service of the court in Rostov-on-Don, a city in southwestern Russia, said on July 11 that two men involved in the case had been detained for at least two months during the high-profile hostage crisis that unfolded in the city last month. One of them, Daniil Kamnev, admitted · membership of the Islamist group At-Takfir Wal-Hijra, which is considered a "terrorist" organization and is banned from Russia. The second suspect, Malik Gandaloyev, admitted · being a member of the Islamic State group. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 11, 2024)

3. According to the pro-government Interfax news agency of Russia, Russia's Federal Security Service said it "prevented an attack on an Orthodox church in the Republic of Adygea" and that the attack was planned by a Central Asian who was a "member of an international terrorist organization." (Ukraine media Korrespondent.net, May 24, 2024)

4. Austria media reported on July 11 that a man from Dagestan in the North Caucasus region of Russia committed suicide hours before he was deported back to Russia, and he was suspected of being a member of the Khorasan branch of the Islamic State. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 12, 2024)

CIS energy exports

1. Biden's Treasury officials have proposed new actions aimed at weakening a fleet of aging tankers that have defied Western sanctions to help Russia ship oil to buyers around the world. While Treasury officials want to stop Russia tankers from working, economic advisers inside the White House fear that this could potentially spur oil prices this summer and push up United States gasoline prices, hurting Biden's re-election bid. (Institute for the Study of War, July 7, 2024)

2. Germany is about to decide what to do with the local assets of Russia oil giant Russia PJSC, which were confiscated by the German government after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict two years ago. A government official familiar with the matter told reporters on July 8 that the future of the assets would be determined soon. The state-controlled Russia energy giant struck a deal with Germany earlier this year to try to find a buyer for its local subsidiary, but that deadline will expire in two months. (Bloomberg, July 9, 2024)

3. According to Argus Media Ltd., the price of Russia's flagship Urals crude oil delivered from Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk to Asian customers has fallen to its lowest point since October. Even the theoretical costs – attributed only to sanctions – have declined, according to pricing body estimates. The cost of transporting a million barrels of Russia's Urals oil cargo from Novorossiysk to northern China is currently $7.2 million, down $3.2 million since early April, Agus data showed. (Bloomberg, July 8, 2024)

4. Russia's oil export earnings fell to their lowest level since February due to a slight drop in export volumes, the International Energy Agency said. The Paris-based agency said in its monthly report released July 11 that the country's oil export revenues were $16.7 billion in June, down 1.2% from the previous month. Despite this, the country's oil export revenues increased by almost 23% compared to the same period last year. (Bloomberg, July 11, 2024)

5. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter of crude oil, saw its overseas shipments fall to their lowest level in 10 months in June. One reason for the collapse in exports is competition from OPEC+ member Russia. Using vessel tracking data estimates and comparing with data compiled by other data providers, Saudi Arabia exported about 168 million barrels of crude last month, equivalent to about 5.6 million barrels per day. (Bloomberg, July 5, 2024)

6. Russia's four-week average oil exports, mainly to India and China, fell to 3.11 million barrels per day as of July 14, down nearly 600,000 barrels from its recent peak in April. (Bloomberg, July 19, 2024)

Before the war, Russia earned about 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) a day from energy exports, but by June this year, a series of sanctions had reduced that figure to about 660 million euros ($720 million) – but that level has remained surprisingly stable over the past 18 months. Just last month, Russia posted a rare current account surplus, a sign of healthy exports. The war of sanctions, like the Russia-Ukraine military conflict itself, seems to have reached an impasse. (Foreign Policy, July 18, 2024)

8. The United Kingdom imposed sanctions on 11 other tankers that help Russia export oil to customers, including some shadow fleet vessels. According to the latest sanctions list, eight of them are owned by the Russia state-owned tanker enterprise Sovcomflot PJSC, and the other three bear the logo of a shadow fleet vessel. (Bloomberg, July 18, 2024)

(1) Currently, four out of every five barrels of seaborne crude oil sold in Russia are carried by shadow tankers. (Foreign Policy, July 18, 2024)

(2) There are still more than 100 non-sanctioned vessels in Sovcomflot's state-owned fleet providing heavy transportation services for Russia's oil exports. Targeted sanctions on its busiest 15 tankers could cut a significant chunk of Russia's oil export revenues with little impact on the market. (Foreign Policy, July 18, 2024)

9. Greece is expanding naval exercises again, which have largely blocked the transshipment of Russia oil near the Greece coastline and forced oil to other hubs around the world. According to a notice from the Hydrographic Directorate of the Greece Navy, the Gulf of Laconia exercise, which was scheduled to end on July 15, will be extended for another two months, the longest to date. (Bloomberg, July 15, 2024)

10. According to media reports on July 18, oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia by Russia oil giant Lukoil have been halted due to sanctions. (Moscow Times, July 18, 2024)

11. Russia gas is diving back to Europe in liquefied form, which is supercooled and transported in tankers instead of being compressed and transported through pipelines. EU imports of Russia liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased by 24% compared to last year, especially to Western European countries such as France, Spain and Belgium; The EU bought half of Russia's total LNG exports. (Foreign Policy, July 18, 2024)

12. Public pension funds, including funds administered in Washington, New York and California, have indirectly invested in ice-class specialized carriers serving Russia's Yamal LNG, according to data compiled by investigative consulting firm Data Desk and Anti-Corruption Data Collective. (Bloomberg, July 19, 2024)

13. Russia's state-owned Russia State Atomic Energy Corporation (Rosatom) is "far ahead" in bidding for Turkey's second nuclear power plant, the latest sign of Ankara's growing energy ties with Moscow. Russia Atomic Energy already has experience in the field of Turkey nuclear energy and began commissioning the country's first nuclear power plant in Akkuyu in April. (Bloomberg, July 16, 2024)

2

Remarks

1. Dmi·try Trenin said: "Putin's strategic calculations are based on the fact that at some point, United States people will get bored. (New York Times, July 19, 2024)

END

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