Tesla, NIO, Xpeng, Xiaomi.
At present, these four car companies are still in the pure electric camp.
The market pattern of new energy vehicles has been reshaped. The growth rate of pure electric vehicles in the world is slowing down, and plug-in hybrids are singing all the way.
According to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, in China, the sales of narrow plug-in hybrid vehicles and extended-range models in June were 308,000 and 116,000 respectively, an increase of 73% and 113% year-on-year, and a month-on-month increase of 12% and 28% respectively.
Compared with the sharp increase in the first two, the growth rate of pure electric vehicles has slowed down, and the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles in June were 559,000 units, an increase of only 5.6% year-on-year and 5.3% month-on-month.
Since 2024, most of the world's auto giants seem to have turned a bit back, slowing down the pace of their electrification transition in terms of investment projects and strategies. Toyota even broke through with Mazda and Subaru in the internal combustion engine.
The enthusiasm for the production and R&D of pure electric vehicles, which increased by more than 80% two years ago, has been affected, and the market sentiment has become somewhat pessimistic. The proportion of plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles in the sales of new energy vehicles has gradually changed from 28 in previous years to 46 today.
The driving route has ups and downs in the tide of the market.
For this trend, on the afternoon of June 14, the 16th China Automobile Blue Book Forum held a special summit debate on "whether pure electric vehicles have stamina after crossing the chasm".
Under the chairmanship of Zhang Yu, General Manager of Shanghai Pre-Zhi Automobile Consulting Co., Ltd., Wang Zhifu, Director of the National Engineering Research Center for Electric Vehicles of Beijing Institute of Technology, Liu Guoqing, Chief Engineer of Leishen Hybrid System of Geely Automobile Group Powertrain Research Institute, Shen Fei, Senior Vice President of NIO, Yuan Feng, Chairman of Xinlian Power, and Cai Wei, Ph.D. Professor of Harbin University of Science and Technology/Founder of Jingjin Electric and Foreign Academician of the Russia Academy of Engineering, conducted in-depth discussions on this topic.
Zhang Yu believes that this year, pure electric vehicles will grow by 6%-7% at most, contributing 30-400,000 increments, and the vast majority of new energy vehicles will increase from various plug-in hybrids, and at least 1.5 million to 1.6 million increments will come from PHEVs.
As a representative of the pure electric faction, Shen Fei said from his own brand that pure electric has just completed the warm-up, the momentum is strong, it has just started, and it is still early to talk about the stamina.
Yuan Feng believes that infrastructure construction has not kept up with the growth of pure electric vehicles to a certain extent. For consumers with range anxiety, various hybrid forms with the advantages of gasoline, electric energy and intelligence, such as REEV or PHEV, can meet the needs of consumers, so they have become the result of consumer choice.
Wang Zhifu believes that pure electric vehicles represent the future trend, and it is normal for statistical data to have bottlenecks and twists and turns. Consumers' choices, preferences, or attempts at technology may affect the development of the market. Plug-in hybrids, including hybrids, may now bring even more obvious advantages through the accumulation and breakthrough of technology in recent years.
Liu Guoqing believes that PHEVs will definitely surpass EVs in the future. Electrification is only one of the solutions to the "dual carbon" strategy, and a linear increase in electricity is a huge scientific challenge for exponential speed growth and energy consumption, which can be easily achieved by gasoline vehicles or plug-ins. In addition, 96% of customers drive less than 100 kilometers per day, blindly pursuing long battery life is a waste of resources but have to consider some long-distance scenarios, and plug-in is a good solution from various dimensions such as environmental protection.
Cai Wei believes that from the policy point of view, the subsidies for pure electric and plug-in hybrid are almost the same, and they are still in the stage of carbon peaking; From the perspective of personal application, plug-in hybrid solves the problem of consumer range anxiety, so the increase in plug-in hybrid at this time has risen.
Finally, the guests predicted the market share of pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel vehicles (plus HEV) by 2030, and the results showed that most of the guests are still confident in the potential of pure electric vehicles, and oil vehicles have not died out, and they are still divided into three parts of the world.
Cai Wei believes that if there is no major change in the policy, the ratio of pure electric: plug-in hybrid: oil vehicle (plus HEV) is 45%: 30%: 25%; Yuan Feng thinks it's 4:3:3, Shen Fei thinks it's 50%-60%: 30%-40%:10%; Liu Guoqing strongly supported the interjection, believing that it was 3:5:2, and Wang Zhifu's prediction was 5:2:3.
The following is an abridged transcript of the summit debate.
Plugging up the mix
Zhang Yu: I'm very glad to have the opportunity to communicate with you. First of all, I would like to invite a few panelists to sit down. The theme of this year's discussion is "Pure Electric Vehicles Have No Stamina After Crossing the Gap". Let's elaborate, it should mean that the pure electric car has gone from 0 to 1, so from 1 to 10, how far can the pure electric car develop? In the next hour, we'll take a moment to talk about it.
The organizing committee has an explanation of this (theme), and I will introduce it to you first. In 2024, the era of pure electric vehicles riding the dust on a global scale has passed, and the Chinese auto market looks basically the same. These are basically due to the decline of subsidy policies, the limitations of the cost of pure electric vehicles at this stage, and also due to the fact that infrastructure construction cannot keep up with the pace of pure electric vehicle sales to a certain extent.
At the same time, the growth momentum of gasoline-electric hybrid or extended-range electric vehicles in China is very fierce. From a global point of view, gasoline-electric or high-efficiency hybrid is still the main force in the market. Is the future of pure electric vehicles the end of the car drive route? We're going to have a discussion around that.
The price of pure electric cars in Europe and the United States is very high, and it has been seen from the second half of last year that their sales have declined sharply, and all kinds of negative narratives and reflections have come out. But this is not the case in China, where trams have reached a passenger car penetration rate of nearly 24% last year, and in China, the price of trams is already equivalent to that of gasoline cars, and even lower than gasoline cars in the same size class. Why did the tram hit a big bottleneck last year, especially this year? This year, the most electric vehicles will grow by 6%-7%, contributing 300,000-400,000 units, and the vast majority of this year's new energy increments will come from various plug-in hybrids, with at least 1.5 million to 1.6 million units coming from PHEVs. Why is that? The price is already so good, what is the reason why China's pure electric vehicles have encountered such a development bottleneck this year? (Development bottlenecks) have actually been a bit of a show since last year. Which speaker will give us a brief talk on this topic?
Shen Fei: Whether we are internal or external, no one will think that we will make non-pure electric vehicles in the future. Second, Weilai's sales in the past two months are also good, and Ledao will be handed over in September, and Firefly will be handed over next year, all of which are pure electric cars, and it can't be said that there is no stamina, it should be said that it has just completed the warm-up, the momentum is fierce, it has just started, and it is not yet time to talk about stamina, it is still early.
Zhang Yu: This should only be for your NIO manufacturer's brand. Let's talk about the general trend first, because the general trend is that the electric vehicles have slowed down significantly, from a continuous growth of 40%-50% to only 6%-7% growth this year, but PHEVs are far outpacing the growth of pure electric vehicles. There must be a reason for this. Mr. Yuan chatted a few words.
Yuan Feng: Let me share it. I have worked in an automotive company for 16 years, and I have been in charge of the CBC of an automotive company for four years, and I have seen many industries and various business models.
I used to work at GAC, and the joint ventures that GAC grasped on the one hand, Honda and Toyota are all very good companies in the world, and on the other hand, Aion through mixed reform and more market-oriented operation, (this) southern company is also doing very well, so we still have comparisons. The development of electric vehicles in the early days is not only the choice of electricity and oil, the rapid growth of electric vehicles in the early days is actually the choice of intelligent products and non-intelligent products, and there are many intelligent products on the tram, whether it is assisted driving or the cockpit in the car can better experience human-computer interaction, and it is a more intelligent product. Therefore, everyone chooses intelligent and non-intelligent, if there are conditions to use new energy vehicles, (mainly to solve range anxiety, charging and replacing batteries are convenient) to choose electric vehicles, which has promoted the last wave from 2020 (rapid growth). If strictly divided, from 2014 to 2020, pure electric vehicles belong to the initial stage of starting, which are all subsidized + operating vehicles to promote, and the beginning of 2020 is really to make consumers feel that this is a good product.
Electricity itself has its advantages, but more in addition to electricity, there is also a sense of technology, and the experience brought by the cockpit and intelligent driving drives consumers to buy. If it is the same as oil trucks, then (like) PetroChina, petrochemical (gas stations), GAC, SAIC, BAIC, Geely, which car companies will not build gas station facilities, so in essence, the infrastructure cannot keep up with the development of China's electric vehicles, just like Dr. Jia Ke said earlier 11 years faster, how can it be planned so fast? After I can't keep up, anyone who has range anxiety will start to think: I have range anxiety myself, and the infrastructure can't keep up, so if I choose pure electric at this time, I may consider using it, such as high-speed time, such as various anxieties when going out. This consumer persuasion function is very difficult, so it has become that we see various REEVs or PHEVs, various hybrid forms slowly starting to start. What is it? It is the advantage of electricity, the energy supply of oil, the intelligent things, and the advantages of good electricity, such as the low cost of use when driving (the benefit), that is, both and to be able to meet, which is the result of consumer choice.
If this matter allows us to judge later, one is that the development of electricity has not yet ended, whether it is electrification and intelligence, it is not over, electrification may go deeper, and there are many forms, whether it is the change of business model, many people have joined, or the change of product technology, from solid-state batteries to fuel cells, this is not over. I'm not sure which way to say it, intelligence is just beginning now, far from the end.
Today, we will talk about the proportion of pure electric, gasoline vehicles, and hybrids, one is to see the technological changes of the car itself, and the other is whether the whole of China, enterprises, and countries will be able to keep up with the pace of infrastructure construction in the future.
Wang Zhifu: Mr. Yuan said it very objectively. I always think that there is definitely no problem with the future trend of pure electric vehicles, but at present, it is normal for statistics to be bottlenecked and have some twists and turns. From the perspective of time, one is that everyone's choice or even some preferences, or the attempt of technology may affect the development of the market. Another one, plug-in hybrid including hybrid, in the past few years everyone is still doing technology accumulation, in recent years we have done more work on technological breakthroughs, which may bring more obvious advantages.
Shen Fei: I don't know that much about oil trucks. I think there are several reasons, and I want to take a look at the trend that Mr. Yuan just mentioned. One reason is that when did this batch of cars that we see in the market that are very competitive in the market developed? It happened to be the most expensive stage of battery development to start development, and at that time it was stressful to let everyone go down and make pure electric vehicles. Second, from the pile point of view, in fact, don't look at the rapid growth rate of the car, the pile growth rate has been faster in the past two years.
Zhang Yu: 2.4:1.
Shen Fei: Yes, in fact, the pile grows faster, so don't worry. In addition, recently, various national teams (PetroChina, Sinopec, etc.) are still entering the construction of infrastructure, I mean not only the battery swap station, but also the entire charging pile, so you don't have to worry about charging, I think boldly do pure electric.
I'll mention one more, if we just stare at a single car to see, because each company will look at its own original advantages, at present, there are only pure electric vehicles of these companies, Weilai, Xiaopeng, Xiaomi, Tesla, they did not have the foundation of oil vehicles, of course, there are also no (oil vehicles) foundation of new entrepreneurs (car companies) are also doing range extension, etc., but we from the entire industry, most of the hybrid originally had a fuel car base, then it will combine its original advantages to see which ones to do first. This does not mean that there is no trend in the next step of pure electric vehicles.
In addition, I just saw that there is a saying in the background called "imagination is the queen", and I think we should look at the future. I remember that last year, the State Grid came to us to investigate V2G, and what can be done with the discharge of the vehicle network grid. If you want the grid discharge of the vehicle network to really play the role of energy storage, it must be pure electricity, because the power of the hybrid is too small. So what did it mean for them (State Grid) to come to investigate at that time? It means that the next step is to come up with a group policy, and it is much worse for each car company to wait until that policy comes out to do it.
What does V2G mean? I'll give you an account, if it is a 100-degree battery car in Weilai, in the current Zhejiang, Shandong, and Hubei provinces, there is an electricity price of 0.3 yuan during the day, 0.3 yuan at night, and 0.3 yuan at noon. (Pure electric) back is really very competitive, everyone must believe this.
Zhang Yu: In the long term, we believe it, but we now look at it from now to 2030, and we don't need to look at it in ten or twenty years. What do Mr. Liu and Professor Cai think?
Liu Guoqing: I was fortunate to participate in the forum last year, last year's theme was "Will the internal combustion opportunity continue to survive", and this year's electric vehicle has encountered a bottleneck, and this transformation is quite fast.
From the general logic, whether a technology can move forward or not is from two dimensions, the first is the national level, and the second is the consumer level.
At the national level, electrification is the country's grand strategy, but in fact, the strategy at the top level is the "dual carbon" strategy, and electrification is derived from this (strategy).
Is electrification necessarily a good solution for the "dual carbon" strategy? It's just one of them. Based on the current volume of passenger cars, CO2 emissions account for 4% of the entire industrial emissions, and some hybrids may only account for 1%-2%. It's not that after you do pure electricity, this climate and environment will change a lot, this is the first point.
The second is, can the oil industry be completely replaced? Although we import oil with such a big energy security problem, even if you use batteries, there are many materials in the separator that come from oil, so there is no way for the oil industry to be killed. I have a conservative estimate, no matter how much we push electrification, we also have 20% of the oil vehicles in the case of self-sufficiency, because now more than 70% of the oil is imported, and if the plug-in hybrid uses more electricity, there will still be 20% of the pure oil vehicles that can be maintained. This is at the national level.
Second, from the consumer level. You buy an electric car and you buy a petrol car or a hybrid car, unless it gives you a different driving experience. From the current dimension, if it is a gasoline car with a 2.0T displacement, including hybrid cars and trams, I don't think the driving experience is as big as everyone says, it may be a difference between 90 points and 95 points. In the past, everyone had high requirements for acceleration, because in the past, everyone relied on 100 kilometers of acceleration to reflect or support the value of the brand, but this is no longer there, which is why the domestic technology on the one hand, on the one hand, the reason why the brand has also come up, is because the brand effect has been blurred through electrification.
But in fact, there is a question: is the faster the acceleration to 100 km/h, the better? Not really, in terms of consumers. In the past, for example, the V12 engine could accelerate to 100 kilometers in 2-3 seconds, and it had the shape of a sports car, so that when you drove it, you would feel that it was a car that accelerated very fiercely, and you would be very careful. But nowadays, some cars (acceleration to 100 km/h) reach 2 seconds. Personally, I don't think that less than 6 seconds is friendly to all customers, because it's too fast, and the average person can't hold it. Recently, some new forces have come out of the car, 100 kilometers of acceleration is very fast, in fact, there have been more accidents recently, especially women driving her car has no feeling, a kick (throttle) down too fast. I suggest that there are some relevant policies in the industry, and the acceleration performance of new cars with super acceleration performance should be unlocked slowly for 100 kilometers, rather than directly released all at once. If you only look at the acceleration, the hybrid can also be done, and the large displacement of the fuel car is actually very good.
From both dimensions, I think several [drives] will coexist.
Zhang Yu: From a statistical point of view, it is said that the probability of a lady breaking down is not high, and we need to be "politically correct". Hear what Professor Chua has to say.
Cai Wei: I mainly do electric drives. Now China's new energy vehicles add up, the total weighted average is 1.32 motors per vehicle, but hybrid vehicles, especially plug-in hybrid vehicles, have an average of 2.1 motors per car, and each pure electric vehicle has an average of 1.06-1.1 motors. From this point of view, when I engage in electric drive, I definitely want more hybrids, because there are more hybrid motors. Just kidding, of course.
As mentioned earlier, China is transforming from policy-driven to market-driven, and driven by both policy and market. Everyone knows that there are still subsidies in 2023. Isn't there nothing? Yes, isn't it also a subsidy if you don't pay for the purchase tax? Therefore, in this case of considering subsidies, everyone will definitely consider which subsidy is more. For car building, it is also how much money is earned by building a car, and that subsidy is also counted as a money, because it is also part of the income of (car companies). In this case, it cannot be called completely market-driven. In this case, I personally think that electric vehicles will still develop at a faster pace.
As for why hybrids have risen all of a sudden? Especially plug-in hybrids. It is because there was a subsidy for pure electricity a few years ago, and now it is found that there is no (much) subsidy for pure electricity, and everyone is subsidized by consumption tax, and the final result is that the two (subsidies for pure electricity and plug-in hybrid) are similar, which is the policy aspect.
From the aspect of personal application, this is a familiar thing for everyone, when the charging facilities are not available, imperfect, and not enough, you must be looking for a place to charge everywhere, and there is refueling everywhere in a circle, and everyone will definitely consider (replenishing) this factor. In the past few years, everyone mainly developed pure electric vehicles (building charging facilities), so this time it got up.
But why aren't pure electric and plug-in hybrid both (similar) proportional increases? In fact, it is still related to national policies.
When the country formulates the "dual carbon strategy", carbon emissions will peak by 2030, carbon emissions will decline in the 20 years from 2030 to 2050, and there will be 10 years (to 2060) to maintain (results). In this case, the question arises, it will be like power generation, why is coal power not decreasing but increasing? Because the state allows to pull up to the "carbon peak" and then go down, this situation also causes a good development of hybrid power.
From 2030 to 2050, we will find that the task of carbon reduction is getting heavier and heavier, and the entire carbon can be reduced only after clean energy and green energy power generation.
So I personally think that the two (pure electric and hybrid) must be developing in parallel. But one thing is certain, the pure oil-burning car, no matter what kind of fuel it burns, will gradually disappear in the future, this is a foregone conclusion. Why is this point of view? Very simply, hybrid power must be more fuel-efficient and fuel-efficient than (pure oil vehicles), whether it is burning ammonia, hydrogen or burning petroleum to burn anything, hybrid power is more economical than it, and everything that is more economical must be the ultimate goal. This is my personal opinion.
Zhang Yu: So Professor Cai thinks that maybe the long-term 2030-2050 must be a pure electric victory, which is no problem?
Cai Wei: Yes, pure electric power will definitely increase, it will definitely be the ultimate goal, of course, it also depends on further charging facilities (construction and improvement) of these things. But now until 2030 is the time for carbon to rise, so it must be that hybrids are rising very quickly, because the carbon emission limit is not so strict.
Zhang Yu: Actually, there has always been an old problem with trams, one is battery life and safety. As soon as the tram collided, it exploded and burned. Can these two problems be solved in the short term? Or can it reassure consumers? Because the larger the battery, the higher the risk seems to be, but if the battery is not large enough, the battery life does not seem to be satisfactory, many cars now have an actual range of only more than 300 kilometers, less than 400 kilometers, if you want to reach 700-800 kilometers of actual battery life, the battery pack may be 120 kWh or even 150 kWh. Of course, if it is a battery replacement, this problem will be solved. But we can see more manufacturers increase the battery pack, and the battery life will increase after increasing the battery pack, but there are also problems with safety. Several experts in the field of new energy think that the safety of lithium batteries can be solved? Is there a good upside in terms of energy density? Now the rate at which costs are coming down is okay, but there seem to be some issues with energy density and safety.
Cai Wei: Energy density has increased dramatically in recent years. Compared to 2016 and 2018, when it was called the first year of electric vehicles, the energy density of batteries has at least doubled. On the other hand, expectations for the future, especially security (have multiplied) several times as much. At the time, it was strange to say that the car did not catch fire, but now it is basically a very small chance that it will catch fire. The statistics made by Mr. Ouyang (Minggao) were bullied on the Internet, he didn't use the original data, he used the PPT of a certain gentleman the year before. But in any case, we can see that the battery fires of electric vehicles are becoming less and less, and it is estimated that the safety of the next generation of batteries, especially the so-called solid-state batteries, will be further improved in the future, of course, not now, and will be further improved in the future, so the safety (of electric vehicles) will be further improved, and the energy density will be further improved. The state is setting up a project to require the energy density to go from 400Wh/kg to 500Wh/kg, which has nearly doubled.
In such a case, the weight of a battery with 100 kWh of electricity will also be reduced by half, but in any case, it is not as light as the fuel tank of a conventional car, and it will not be lighter and faster than the tank of a conventional car in the future, which is certain. From this point of view, there are indeed some future technology elements that will determine the future proportion of electric vehicles, but they will never be (and in the end) all electric vehicles, and in the end there will be no hybrids and no gas-burning cars.
Personally, I think that there will be fewer and fewer cars that burn pure fuel or cars that burn pure fuel, or close to zero, accounting for a very small percentage. Again, hybrid power must be more economical than pure fuel-burning, technology is also a very important part, and future development also depends on technology, and the policymaking we just talked about actually depends on technological progress.
Wang Zhifu: Everyone's pursuit of energy carrying is endless, and we can't wait to take a battery as big as a mobile phone to let the car run for a year, which is very good for improving the level of transportation. To put it a little further, for example, we are now propelling rockets, which have a large chunk of mass that is all on fuel.
It's the same with cars. Just now, NIO said why do you want to change the battery? In fact, the battery is now a big burden, and 1/3 of the weight of a car is probably the battery. The same brings up another problem, if the energy is dense enough, accidents are inevitable, which is absolutely inevitable. Do you think gasoline will explode? As long as the energy is sufficient, to put it to the extreme, like dust can explode, it also has the (safety) problem of energy. The improvement of energy is inevitable, and the improvement of safety is also what we must pay attention to.
Mr. Cai also said just now that from the perspective of our data platform, the faults of new energy vehicles similar to thermal runaway are actually declining year by year, but each one will win a lot of attention and attention.
Zhang Yu: Is there a more authoritative data compared with oil trucks?
Wang Zhifu: Let's talk about the data later. The data is definitely small, about 3/10000. If you cite numbers to argue, you will say that there are a lot of fuel trucks, anyway, we won't talk about numbers for various reasons. I also agree with Mr. Cai Wei's opinion that whether it is active safety or passive safety, we have been doing this work. WE'VE BEEN DOING THIS ALL THE TIME, FROM US IN THE BATTERY ITSELF TO THE BATTERY ASSEMBLY PACK. We are now also working with enterprises and customers to warn the battery through the platform, and we can achieve a prediction accuracy of more than 80% with a thermal runaway probability a week in advance, and we can reach 90%, which greatly reduces the probability of this extreme risk. There's nothing wrong with this.
Yuan Feng: I agree with what the two guests said. In the past, the contradiction of batteries was that energy density and safety were inversely proportional, and charging speed and cycle life were inversely proportional, which was the point at which the balance was adjusted in various inverse proportional processes. Now the breakthrough is the breakthrough of the battery material itself, in the past, the lithium iron phosphate battery can do 100 kilometers, 200 kilometers of cruising range is good, now some companies can do lithium iron also do 600 kilometers of cruising range. This mileage goes up again, it makes no sense to go to a certain extent, refueling will run 400 kilometers, 500 kilometers, you will not have to run a 1000 kilometers of fuel tank, back or related to your charging infrastructure, if the more convenient you are, the more unnecessary it is to add up, this is the first.
Second, why electrification is going ahead, because the first stage has passed, whether it is ternary, lithium iron phosphate batteries, and through better battery management systems to continuously collect data for active safety, now after more and more data accumulation, you will know when the battery will be more prone to spontaneous combustion, including its temperature, etc., because it itself also has physical elasticity, in the past, GAC used a silicon carbon sponge to solve the problem with a material, which is equivalent to a sponge that can solve some problems when it expands here, as well as BYD's blade battery, etc., from the physical form, from the battery material itself, it has moved to a more refined management. And then after more data collection, the battery management system will also be more and more refined, including the silicon carbide that I talked about in my previous speech, and after replacing this chip, it will increase your energy conversion efficiency by 5%-8%, so now it is getting more and more refined.
In this kind of refinement, I don't think it's necessary to think about whether there will be a subversive range from 600 kilometers to 1200 kilometers in the future, and the safety of the battery is still not a problem. I don't think there's much anxiety about that anymore.
HP
Zhang Yu: Mr. Yuan, you just mentioned that consumers are difficult to educate, consumers always want and want, and they want everything, and he still seems to have a lot of opinions on electric cars that cannot be solved, so PHEVs have made great strides last year and this year. In the long term, such as the next 20 or 30 years, we think there should be no problem with this route of pure electric, but if we only look at the next 5 or 6 years, by 2030, is it possible to judge that in the proportion of new energy, like the technical route of PHEV, it may even surpass pure electric?
Because this year, it seems that this ratio has been four or six by now, and for a long time everyone has known that the ratio between PHEVs and EVs has always been twenty-eight, and everyone thinks that this PHEV should disappear soon, as long as the policy is withdrawn, it will disappear. As a result, not only has it not disappeared, but PHEVs are rising faster and faster, and it is likely to be a ratio of 55 to 5 by the end of this year. What does Mr. Liu think about PHEV products in the next two to three years, is it possible to even surpass pure electric vehicles in the short and medium term?
Liu Guoqing: Personally, I think PHEVs will surpass EVs in the future. I think in two dimensions. First of all, it must be for high speed, and it is impossible to do long battery life in urban areas, which makes no sense. Whether it is a solid-state battery or a liquid battery, the increase in power is linear, that is, about how many batteries need to be added to increase the power by 1 kWh. However, the relationship between the consumption of energy consumption and the growth of vehicle speed in high-speed and long-range scenarios is exponential, and you want to use a linear thing to match the exponential thing, which is very challenging from a scientific point of view. But for a petrol truck, or for plug-ins, it's very easy. What does that mean? It's just that maybe our battery has made a lot of efforts and found that PHEVs have been standing in that place for a long time. Blindly increasing the battery capacity will also increase the weight, which is also a lot of obstacles.
Second, from the actual point of view of customers, China's new energy big data shows that 96% of customers drive less than 100 kilometers per day, and then exaggerate to say that it can be charged once a week, I think it is already more friendly to consumers. If we blindly pursue long battery life, it is actually a waste of resources, but you have to consider this scenario.
Who do I think will be the customers of electric vehicles in the future?
The first one, the taxi market outside the north is definitely 100%, basically pure electric. Second, there must be a second car, or some people's driving mode is high-speed rail + (pure electric) this way of travel, which is also a good way in the future, but I think it is not a car company, more of an energy company, from the dimension of energy to consider this logic is very good. So I think plug-in is a good solution from various dimensions such as environmental protection.
Zhang Yu: I agree with Mr. Liu, I can understand that in terms of the convenience of energy replenishment, the speed of refueling is very fast, and gas stations are all over the country. But in the same way, Mr. Shen and Mr. Yuan have actually mentioned that this battery really does not need to be expanded indefinitely, if we have a battery replacement network, it can also be like a gas station network, then the convenience of energy replenishment is solved, and I don't need to make such a complicated system. In fact, I wonder if Mr. Shen can look forward to it, if you predict from your judgment, when will such a battery swap network be able to balance with gas stations? Can this be done?
Shen Fei: Because at present, our battery swap network is only for NIO's 500,000 users, in fact, as long as the amount of ownership goes up, the battery swap station will naturally be denser and more, and now we are in the main activity area of users, in fact, we can see from the power that 56% of the electricity comes from battery swapping plus home charging, etc., and only a little more than 10% of the electricity of NIO users comes from public charging piles, and 83% of the high-speed above is from battery swapping, and the network has initially completed national coverage. In the next step, we will continue to encrypt this network.
I think what's more important is the trend, as I just said, users really don't need to chase that long-lasting battery, it's too expensive. Then you will solve this problem after you have a battery change.
From another point of view, I can actually make a statistic, let's interact, the people here who are really driving pure electric cars raise their hands. Let's take a look, people who drive pure electric vehicles will naturally understand pure electric vehicles better, and he has not experienced pure electric vehicles in depth when driving a fuel car. Because I believe that 90% or even 99% of people who drive pure electric have driven a petrol car, except for some young people whose first car is pure electric, there is probably a comparison. So when he drove a petrol truck, he naturally thought that my petrol truck would be longer, or that I would have to wait a little longer.
I'll tell you two examples, one is an analogy that I think is quite reasonable, that is, what Brother Li Bin said, saying that the fuel tank with extended range is actually a pacifier, but in fact, you don't need it. Then I agree with this point of view. Then I will use another data to illustrate, we once engaged in an activity, because our second-generation platform removed the AC charging port, that is, our second-generation car only has a DC charging port, so some users such as he originally drove an extended range, or the original drive of other cars only AC pile, he could not use it, we made a free replacement. Then among the top two brands for free replacement, one is a pure electric brand and the other is an extended range brand. That pure electric brand is Tesla, which has the largest number of shares in the market, and it has a large number of shares and has been sold in China for a long time. The extended range (brand) has been sold for a short time, and the number of holdings is only about 1/3 of it. But in the first two months, in the first two months, the first in line (replacement) is actually the extended range brand, so we have a saying that "the next extended range is pure electric, and the next pure electric is battery replacement".
Zhang Yu: Mr. Shen, I have a "soul torture". NIO's battery swap network is already very good, more than 2,400 (battery swap stations), and they all have NIO's LOGO, your brand image is very good, and now you are also building a circle of friends. But you know in a few of the most critical points, such as autonomous driving, if battery swapping becomes a major competitive selling point in the future, but I use NIO's network and NIO's brand, if I were other big ambitious tram manufacturers, would I be willing to give my soul to NIO, will the soul of my brand be gone? If not, it can't be a public good, what do you think about that?
Shen Fei: Let me give you an example before we talk about our actual situation. For example, in the past, such as Amazon's cloud, Tencent, and Alibaba's cloud, they all used it themselves at the earliest. When they use it themselves and complete the demonstration of business technology and business model, they will open it to the entire industry at a lower marginal cost, and their business is also growing, and the industry is also benefiting. In fact, battery replacement is the same logic. On May 31, an investment platform of the local government in Wuhan has invested 1.5 billion yuan in NIO, which means that we have made the first step in financing and spin-off.
When we were talking to our joint venture partners about this strategic cooperation in battery swapping, at least two of the chairmen of the group took his investment department with them. In short, we are ready to answer what you just said.
Yuan Feng: I met (Shen Fei) in 2019, and since the day I met him, I "fooled" him and said to quickly dismantle it (battery change). I say so, it (battery swap) is indeed a good form of energy supplement, if this thing can become everyone to use, it will definitely be promoted more vigorously, not to say that consumers must use the battery, must not need to change the battery, (but people) have more options, can be charged and replaced.
In the automotive field, there is a particularly good example of this, which is "Aisin Transmission", which is a division of Toyota, and in the early stage of development, the transmission was the core component. When the technology of oil vehicles was immature and the technology was changing rapidly in the early stage, car companies had to have their own core technology, and they were afraid of being stuck. But when it slowly matures and the gearbox slowly matures, after Toyota spins it off, Toyota now accounts for a small percentage of the shares, Volkswagen is also using it, Geely is also using it in the early days, and GAC is also using it, that is, every car company is using it, and it has become a more cost-effective product. It's critical, but car companies don't feel stuck when they use it, it turns out to be a really better product.
Today, every car company is making batteries, and every car company is making all kinds of things (parts), in fact, because in the early stage of the development of this industrial chain, the technology is still changing, and everyone still feels that there is no confidence. The development of China's entire new energy vehicles is accompanied by various bottlenecks, so everyone is particularly unconfident. If there's a business that can do a very good job of battery swapping, and then everybody can enjoy that, that's really a good business model.
I'm not saying that because of NIO, I think about battery swapping, because I also promoted GAC's battery swap later. There are two thoughts: one is what Mr. Shen (Shen Fei) just said, you actually lower the cost of purchase, this is to promote consumption, I bought a car from Weilai and saved 70,000 yuan, why no? You could only buy a car for 200,000 yuan, now you can buy a 300,000 car because you don't have to buy the battery. It doesn't matter, because you still have to pay that cost after all, but you pay for it separately. But you can also calculate an account, I refuel for 400 yuan a month, and rent that battery may be 600 yuan a month, in fact, it is not much worse, and the electricity cost for charging is only a few dozen yuan. So it's cheaper when you buy it, and it's similar to a gasoline car when you use it, so I think if everyone uses battery swapping, the first thing is to promote consumption.
And the second point, which I think is more important, is that I may not realize it yet. Let's see, for example, why Toyota has done so well in the United States before, or so well in the world. It takes used cars very, very seriously. Therefore, the residual value of Toyota's second-hand cars is very high, and if you buy a car for 200,000 yuan and sell it for 130,000 yuan for 5 or 6 years, there are often examples of this. So we don't look at the cost when buying, you see that the cost of use of the whole life cycle of Japan cars is low, less maintenance, fuel saving, and high residual value of used cars, so in the previous oil car era, it can sell better when the economy is bad, and Japan cars sell.
Due to the short development time of today's trains, the penetration rate of trams in 2020 is less than 5%, and it is not yet time to change trains. When it comes to the actual change of car, the residual value is a very important point. If you spend 500,000 yuan to buy a car, in fact, its use cost is more expensive than a gas car. Another is that the decay rate of the battery life cycle, every time I change the phone, the battery of the Apple mobile phone is not good, and I carry a power bank to change the phone, and the technical change is not so obvious.
Therefore, the life cycle of the battery does not necessarily match the life cycle of the car, and the mismatch will lead to your final residual value. And this may be a problem later, which has not yet been shown today. So I think battery swapping is a good business model, but it's really too difficult for a company to promote.
Three points of the world
Zhang Yu: I completely agree with Mr. Yuan and Mr. Shen's statement on the business model, but because we are facing an individual with a lot of ideas, he may have some judgments of his own. For example, the battery is something that he thinks is very valuable, and he is not willing to change it. A lot of people here just raised their hands, and they were all people driving the train. I'm going to do a little survey, and I just raised my hand and said that I was driving a tram, do you want your batteries to be changed often? There is one who is willing. Is there anyone else? Would you like to do so? This one would like to do the same. Is there anything you don't want to do? Said that this battery is mine, very valuable, I have this battery is very good, I don't want to change it......
Yuan Feng: Moderator, there is a point here, because I have been anxious before, and I have just studied this matter a lot. I've been anxious before, but there is a very key point: the battery is not yours, you don't think that the battery is yours, the assets of the battery itself are not yours, the assets are the car companies. If that asset is not yours, you may not be the same, if that asset is yours, you may think I don't want to, my battery may be new, if I change my old I don't think it will be replaced by an old one.
When the battery itself is not your asset, maybe everyone doesn't mind it so much.
Shen Fei: I reposted a user's article on Weibo, and he meant that I was too stupid, how could I charge the battery for three years before I went to change it. Then the following messages were left "I'm so stupid, I charged for half a year before I went to change the battery", "I went on the first day"...... The final conclusion is that in fact, it is cool to change it early, but any NIO user who charges it for a while and then changes it will regret it after he changes the battery.
Cai Wei: Let me interject and add one more thing. We are now talking about plug-in hybrids in general, in fact, there are several kinds of plug-in hybrids: the first is called series plug-in, that is, the engine can not do anything, it can generate electricity, and nothing else can be done, and some people (call this) called range extension. In this case, if we compare it, in fact it is not much different from electric vehicles, except that electric vehicles occasionally add a little something.
The other is called a parallel hybrid, which means that my engine can both drive and generate electricity.
There is another type called series-parallel hybrid, so that I can not only generate electricity, but also drive, and generate electricity when I need it, and drive it when I need it. Logically speaking, this one may be more suitable for everyone's needs, whether it is a long distance or something (other scenarios).
But why has tandem become so fashionable? How many of the good ones we sell are this? To put it bluntly, it's simple. But with the development of technology in the future, I personally think that it may be better to connect in series and parallel. From another point of view, if the unplugged ones are removed from various government subsidies, it will also have a certain market, and this will rise in the future. How much are we now? Now [the proportion of HEV] is about 3%.
Zhang Yu: The proportion of unplugged HEVs is very small.
Cai Wei: But you can imagine that if you just need it to turn back and forth to save oil, you don't need to pull that big battery, and it's a waste to run with it. If the cart runs with the battery instead of the person, it is also costly to run with the battery.
So my personal point of view is that because we are now exempting new energy vehicles from purchase tax, it is actually a kind of subsidy, and if the unplugged (subsidy) is canceled in the future, there will still be a certain market for those that do not need to be charged.
Zhang Yu: Professor Cai, I happen to have a contrary judgment with you, and now we find that those manufacturers who do plug-in power are making the battery bigger and bigger, whether it is making ordinary PHEVs in series and parallel, or plug-in with extended range, the battery is getting bigger and bigger, how do we understand this? Mr. Liu, what kind of psychology do you think this is, or the manufacturer's strategy?
Liu Guoqing: Recently, I have been doing some analysis related to the energy-saving route 3.0, and my understanding is this.
At the national level, it is hoped that HEVs will be used to replace fuel vehicles. But you can only rely on the "Fuel Consumption Regulations" to limit it, that is, you can't sell fuel vehicles, you can only sell HEVs. One of the possible actions of the OEM is to skip the HEV and make PHEVs. Why? PHEV is a five-organ system, you have a motor and he also has a motor, in the case of all the five organs, adding a little 10-degree battery is not necessarily more expensive than HEV. At this time, consumers can have some external functions, even if it is 50 kilometers, in fact, it can meet the daily mileage requirements of third-tier cities. In this dimension, this is also a matter that needs to be balanced. It is possible that we want to do this and get rid of the fuel vehicles, but it is possible that HEVs do not get up, and they all end up going to PHEVs, which is what we think about from the perspective of enterprises.
Wang Zhifu: You actually said it quite thoroughly. Actually, all the things we have (discussed) are in the way of replenishment.
I was also talking to Weilai just now, battery swapping is also a way to replenish energy, including how big the battery is and how big the fuel tank is, all of which lie in the convenience and energy saving of energy supplement, and this method finally determines the form of the car.
Zhang Yu: Professor Cai just mentioned a very good point, is it possible for this kind of unplugged HEV to completely replace pure fuel vehicles in China? There will be no pure fuel vehicles in the future, what do you think about this problem? Do you want a pure fuel car?
Cai Wei: Theoretically, there should be such a possibility. Because the added cost is not much, and the fuel consumption and fuel savings are large, the possibility of such a replacement should be there.
But there is another problem, up to now, especially commercial vehicles, we have not found any better hybrid way in China, which can solve the problem of commercial vehicles, so commercial vehicles may be a difficulty that everyone should overcome in the future. I think it's possible for passenger cars. You can see that Toyota Prius alone has sold more than 3 million units this year, and here, you can see that all the cars of BYD throughout the year add up to more than 3 million, and one (model) sells 3.5 million units, which shows that users are recognized.
Zhang Yu: If we look at it from another angle, there will be no green license plate after 2028, and there will be no purchase tax reduction for PHEVs, which is exactly the same as that of gasoline vehicles. Mr. Liu, what do you think about this problem?
Liu Guoqing: I think whether oil trucks will exist or not depends on how determined the country is. If he has to make a mandatory regulation, you can't meet the regulation at all, then you can't sell it, the consumer can't do it, he can't buy it. But if there are gasoline cars to sell in the market, and the price is OK, I believe there will always be a market.
We often talk about saving money by trams, some users like I used to drive 10,000 kilometers a year, 10,000 kilometers I even if the fuel cost thousands of dollars, some users may not be so sensitive as imagined, of course, it is not that fuel consumption is not important, it is very simple, some people are always worried about the battery, including we know that there are many people who make batteries He does not buy electric cars, because he knows the danger, he feels that this thing is at least not controllable when he does his own experiments.
Zhang Yu: So I think that PHEVs are often due to a green card, right of way in some big cities, and it has a 10% purchase tax reduction, so HEVs don't. But if there are no differences in these policies after 2028, and both are the same, then is it necessary for us to produce so many PHEVs in China? Will it simply be simplified to a Japanese-like HEV? Is it possible that Chinese-style PHEVs have disappeared?
Yuan Feng: I think HEVs are more like gasoline vehicles, which are not the same as today's PHEVs. PHEVs are more because everyone wants to buy a pure electric car, and then they feel a little bit of range anxiety and energy supply anxiety, so simply bringing a fuel tank can solve it. HEV is more of a fuel truck, and it may have more energy-saving things. HEVs are more about whether gasoline vehicles still exist, while PHEVs and EVs are more about energy, and whether the battery range or energy supply can be perfect enough to offset range anxiety. In my opinion, it's actually a matter of oil and electricity.
I believe that pure oil - that is, a car that does not have any energy-saving things, (in the future) may not have it, you look at the release of every car company, it is nothing more than to electrify - pure electric or plug-in delay (delay) to when, but he will not say I don't do this.
The future plan of the car company does not seem to say that it will make a pure oil car without even a small energy-saving system in the future. Then I think the final choice of oil and electricity is not in the form of energy supply, the one you just mentioned is also called the form of energy supply. I'll take an example from our previous experience, if Nokia were a smartphone, no matter what the structure in it was, there would probably be people using it. It (oil and electricity choice) is a Nokia and iPhone thing.
If the oil truck can still be made very intelligent, it may still exist in various forms. Intelligence is a new species, and intelligent driving and cockpit are a new species. I think it's probably more about whether the oil car can achieve a better intelligent experience than the tram, because this is just the beginning, I'm not sure about this conclusion, and it may have to be discussed.
Liu Guoqing: Let me add that there is a high-speed rail today, but it is still necessary to keep the green cars, which is a reason, after all, there are different consumer groups.
Zhang Yu: We've talked about it so much, it's been almost an hour, and we're going to wrap it up in a simple way. By 2030, what will be the approximate ratio of pure gasoline vehicles, PHEV plug-in hybrids, and pure electric vehicles?
Cai Wei: It's hard to say. Personally, I think that if there is no major change in policy by 2030, there will still be slightly more electric vehicles, about 45%. Plug-in hybrids will probably account for about 30%. If there is no subsidy and all cars are the same, I personally think that the rest should be gasoline cars and hybrids.
Yuan Feng: I still follow the "4:3:3" of my former boss. It's just that the next 3 are not necessarily pure oil cars, they may be energy-saving cars.
Zhang Yu: Oil + HEV, right?
Yuan Feng: Yes, probably, add "433" to that (HEV).
Zhang Yu: That is, the pure electric is 4, and the PHEV is 3.
Shen Fei: I try my best to do a good job of battery replacement. I must make a prediction, I would predict that in 2030 there may be 50%-60% pure electric, and 10% of pure oil cars will not be plugged in, about this proportion. Then by 2035, I hope that 90% of pure electricity will be pure electricity, and half of pure electricity will be battery swapped.
Liu Guoqing: I'm a little more radical. If all the policy subsidies in the market are reduced in the future, regardless of whether it is electric or PHEV, the trend should be "3:5:2", that is, 30% of electric cars, 50% of PHEVs, and 20% of gasoline vehicles.
Zhang Yu: HEVs are also included in fuel trucks?
Liu Guoqing: The main basis for the existence of oil vehicles is that we can be energy self-sufficient, from the perspective of safety, now the import of oil is more than 70%, about 20% can be self-sufficient, so about 20% of fuel vehicles will continue to exist.
Wang Zhifu: This ratio has to be reversed. I still think that pure electric vehicles are still a little higher, I am optimistic about 50%, and PHEVs are not optimistic, at most 20%. The rest are dominated by H, HEVs and oil vehicles.
Zhang Yu: You are "5:2:3".
Liu Guoqing: I would like to add that in the future, the pure electric mileage of PHEVs should go up, not in the current state, maybe another 50-100 kilometers, maybe the upper limit will be 300 kilometers, the lower limit may be 100 kilometers, and even a small amount of 50 kilometers.
Zhang Yu: Actually, the kind of PHEV you have with P is actually becoming more and more like a tram.
Liu Guoqing: The range extension is also the same.
Zhang Yu: The time relationship is exactly an hour, according to the judgment of several guests, whether it is 433, 352 or 523 in the future, it is basically a diversified driving route. If it is not a new force, the task of our traditional OEM is still quite arduous, and there are several routes to take into account. A hundred flowers are blooming, a hundred schools of thought are contending, and I hope that the new energy market will get better and better, and thank you to the five guests, thank you.