On Friday (July 26, 2024), A-shares rebounded throughout the day, with the Shenzhen Component Index leading the rise of 1.45%, the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.92%. More than 4,400 stocks rose in the whole market, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased slightly today, with a turnover of more than 600 billion yuan, and the market sentiment picked up significantly. On the disk, the high-level stocks continued to adjust, the group of funds flowed to the theme stocks, and the concept of national defense and military industry and the concept of equipment renewal went hand in hand, which was quite interesting.
The first is the concept of defense and military industry. Today, many popular themes such as commercial aerospace, general aviation, large aircraft, military informatization, satellite navigation and so on dominate the screen, and the national defense and military ETF (512810) rose 3.32% in the field, and the underlying index has three consecutive yangs! The agency pointed out that the core tracks such as aviation and aerospace are expected to usher in an improvement in orders and a speed up in performance, and the sector is expected to deduce "low before and high after high, and the dilemma is reversed".
The second is the concept of equipment renewal. The two ministries and commissions issued a document stating that they will make overall arrangements for about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in. A number of institutions pointed out that large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in market space is large, home appliances, automobiles and other consumer industries are important areas of policy support. The consumer leading ETF (516130), which is a one-click layout of leading companies in the consumer industry, rose by 1.33% on the market.
In addition to the above theme stocks, brokerages and real estate companies that rose against the market yesterday continued to be active today, and the sentiment was good. In terms of brokers, the leading Jinlong shares rose in 5 days and 4 boards, and the price of the brokerage ETF (512000) continued to rise by 1.72%, closing two moving averages in a row. In terms of real estate, the LPR interest rate was lowered again, the policy space continued to open, and the fundamentals picked up, and the real estate ETF (159707) rebounded for two consecutive days.
Image source: Wind
Looking ahead, Huafu Securities pointed out that the policy tone this year is the development of new quality productivity, and scientific and technological innovation will continue to constitute the main theme of the year. In terms of industry, artificial intelligence is in the ascendant around the world and is setting off a new round of scientific and technological revolution. In terms of cycles, the ROE of passenger cars and computer equipment industries is at a historical low, and the semiconductor cycle is expected to bottom out. In terms of policies, policies to encourage the development of new productive forces and scientific and technological innovation are being intensively rolled out and implemented one after another.
Today, we will focus on the trading and fundamentals of the three major sectors of national defense and military industry, brokerage and real estate.
First, it's fierce! Aerospace broke out across the board, and the national defense and military ETF (512810) rose 3.32% in volume, and the weekly line won three consecutive yangs! The strongest "dark horse" of the year?
Today, the national defense and military industry sector led the market to rise, and many popular themes such as commercial aerospace, general aviation, large aircraft, military informatization, and satellite navigation dominated the screen! All 80 constituent stocks of the CSI Military Index closed up, Hongdu Airlines was happy to mention the first board, Zhenlei Technology soared more than 15% intraday, closing up 10.21%, and Huali Chuangtong rose 9.24%; The heavyweight stocks of the AVIC system rose, with AVIC West up 5% and AVIC Shen up 4.92%.
Figure: Wind Hot Concepts Index heat map on July 26
Image source: Wind
The National Defense and Military ETF (512810), which represents the market trend of the national defense and military sector, rose unilaterally throughout the day, and the price on the market closed up 3.32%, setting the largest single-day increase in the past 3 months, and recovering 4 moving averages such as 5th, 10th, 60th, and 120th in one fell swoop! The trading volume on the floor increased by more than 20% compared with yesterday, with a turnover of 56.98 million yuan throughout the day, and the turnover rate exceeded 12%.
This week, the national defense and military industry sector has been repeatedly active, and many themes have taken turns, and the underlying index of the national defense and military ETF (512810) CSI Military Industry has risen 0.69% in a single week, and the weekly line has won three consecutive yangs! This week's performance was significantly stronger than major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (-3.2%), ChiNext Index (-4.70%), and CSI 300 (-3.95%).
Image source: Wind
Today's aerospace concept leads the rise of the national defense industry, or benefits from multiple benefits such as news, capital, and policy.
On the news side, overnight, the U.S. stock satellite operator AST SpaceMobile soared 24.55% to a record high! According to media sources, AST SpaceMobile has completed the construction of the first five satellites and plans to launch a batch of large "Block 1" BlueBird 5G satellites in August.
At the industry level, the Chinese version of "Starlink" is about to shine in the starry sky. According to the plan, the first phase will complete the launch of 1,296 satellites, and more than 14,000 low-orbit broadband multimedia satellites will be built in the future.
In terms of funds, the main funds are rushing to raise. The main net inflow of the national defense and military industry today is 2.842 billion yuan, ranking first among the 31 Shenwan first-class industries! The aerospace sector has been focused on increasing its positions, including AVIC Xifei, Shanghai Hanxun, Hangfa Power, Guangqi Technology, AVIC Airborne and other major stocks with a net inflow of more than 100 million yuan.
Image source: Wind
The policy side continues to increase. Yesterday, the "Three-year Action Plan for the Integrated Development of the Yangtze River Delta Region (2024-2026)" was released, and the relevant key tasks include: supporting the development of low-altitude economy, developing general aviation, and accelerating the layout of low-altitude industrial infrastructure construction, product research and development and manufacturing; Accelerate the integrated development of science and technology innovation industries in the G60 science and technology innovation corridor, and accelerate the construction of the G60 satellite Internet industry cluster.
Previously, on July 16, Wuhan issued the "Several Measures for the Breakthrough Development of Commercial Aerospace", aiming to seize the important opportunities for the development of commercial aerospace, promote the construction of Wuhan National Aerospace Industry Base, and build a commercial aerospace industrial cluster of 100 billion yuan. On July 12, the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone said that the "Beijing Rocket Street" project was officially launched in the aerospace block of Yizhuang New Town, creating the country's first commercial aerospace generic scientific research and production base.
Regarding the investment opportunities in the national defense and military industry sector at this stage, Cinda Securities said that "keep the clouds open and see the moon", and in 2024, it is expected to deduce "the first low and the second high, and the dilemma is reversed". Looking forward to the second half of the year, we expect that with the successive increase of new models, core tracks such as aviation and aerospace are expected to usher in an improvement in orders and performance acceleration, and the leading white horse is expected to take the lead in ushering in valuation repair. This year may be a key year for the C919 domestic large aircraft, the accelerated layout of satellite Internet, the intensive launch of commercial rockets, the industrialization of 3D printing, electronic countermeasures, and the accelerated development of underwater attack and defense.
Seize the opportunity of "dilemma reversal" in the national defense and military industry sector, and allocate the tool defense and military ETF (512810). According to public information, the constituent stocks of the CSI Military Index tracked by the National Defense and Military ETF (512810) fully cover the leading stocks of military industry such as "China Shipbuilding + China Aviation + Satellite Internet + Low-altitude Economy + Military Informatization", which is a powerful tool for one-click investment in the core assets of A-share national defense and military industry.
Second, the "standard-bearer" rises! Jinlong shares 5 days and 4 boards, 47 shares rose more than 1%, brokerage ETF (512000) continued to rise nearly 2%, outperforming the market by nearly 8% since the low!
The "bull flag-bearer" has finally stood up! Today, the brokerage sector continued to be active, with 50 brokerage stocks in the sector closing in the red across the board, and 47 shares rose more than 1%. The recent leading stock Jinlong shares were quickly closed after the opening, which is the fourth price limit received by Jinlong shares in the five trading days this week. In addition, Zheshang Securities rose more than 5%, Huachuang Yunxin rose more than 4%, and 25 stocks including Founder Securities, Oriental Wealth, and Haitong Securities rose more than 2%.
Image source: Wind
The top A-share brokerage ETF (512000) opened higher, and the price on the market once rose by more than 2.5% and closed up 1.72%, recovering the 5th and 10th lines in one fell swoop, with a full-day turnover of 426 million yuan, a month-on-month increase.
Image source: Wind
Recently, the brokerage sector has changed frequently, Jinlong shares this week to mention 5 days 4 board to attract widespread attention, analysts believe that the first half of the brilliant performance or direct catalyst. After trading last Friday (7.19), Jinlong announced the unaudited financial data of Zhongshan Securities and Dongguan Securities for the first half of 2024. Among them, Zhongshan Securities swept away the decline of previous years and turned losses into profits, with a net profit of 169 million yuan in the first half of the year. Compared with the loss of 27 million yuan in the same period last year, this data is undoubtedly a huge leap.
Zheshang Securities also rose today, on the news, its residence of Guodu Securities has recently been listed for sale, Jingdong judicial auction website shows that 19.291 million shares of Guodu Securities will be auctioned on August 25, with a starting price of 25.2713 million yuan. Previously, Zheshang Securities announced that the China Securities Regulatory Commission had accepted Guodu Securities' application for changing its major shareholders and actual controllers in accordance with the law. Zheshang Securities will become the largest shareholder of Guodu Securities, holding 34.25% of the shares. Industry insiders believe that in Zheshang Securities' entry into Guodu Securities, the old shareholders who had been entrenched before chose to leave, which may be a good thing for Zheshang Securities.
From the perspective of the overall performance of the sector, since July 9, the price of the brokerage ETF (512000) fell to a new low (0.713) in more than 5 years (January 7, 2019), the bottoming out trend has continued to deduce, and the prosperity of the sector has rebounded, as of today's 14 trading days, the brokerage ETF (512000) has harvested 10 positive lines, and its underlying index CSI All-Index Securities Company Index has risen by 6.84%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (-1.08%) over the same period and the CSI 300 Index (0.22%) 7.92 and 7.06 percentage points.
Image source: Wind
A number of institutions pointed out that the brokerage sector has been over-falling, ultra-low allocation + ultra-low valuation, so that the current investment odds of the sector are higher, and the left layout opportunities are worth paying attention to.
Ping An Securities believes that the regulator continues to pay attention to the high-quality development of the capital market, emphasizing the sound function of the capital market and enhancing the internal stability, which will help stabilize the expectations of the capital market and the securities sector. At present, the valuation of the sector and the proportion of fund heavy positions have reached historical lows, with high cost performance and margin of safety. In terms of layout tools, public information shows that the brokerage ETF (512000) tracks the CSI All-Index Securities Company Index, including 50 listed brokerage stocks with one click, of which nearly 6 percent of the positions are concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages, and the leading companies of "big asset management" + "big investment banks" gather; In addition, 4 into the position takes into account the high flexibility of the performance of small and medium-sized brokers, absorbs the characteristics of small and medium-sized brokerages in stages and high explosion, and is a high-efficiency investment tool that concentrates on the layout of head brokerages and takes into account small and medium-sized brokerages.
Third, the leading real estate rose, and the real estate ETF (159707) closed up 1.32% on a daily basis! Institutions: There is no shortage of catalysts for the sector rebound
Today's leading real estate continued to rebound, with the CSI 800 Real Estate Index closing up more than 1%, and the constituent stocks were in the red in a large area. As of the close, Vanke A, Xincheng Holdings, Joy City, etc. all rose more than 2%, Hainan Airport, Poly Development, and Xinhu Zhongbao rose more than 1%, and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Binjiang Group, Shanghai Lingang, Lujiazui, and Huafa shares followed suit.
In terms of popular ETFs, the real estate ETF (159707), which represents the leading real estate market of A-shares, ran at a high level throughout the day, and the price in the market once rose by more than 2% in early trading, and still rose 1.32% at the close. The turnover rate exceeded 9% throughout the day, and the turnover exceeded 22 million yuan, and the trading remained active.
Image Credit: Snowball
Looking back at the trend of leading real estate this week, the sector as a whole fluctuated in a narrow range around the low range, showing that it was adjusted first and then rebounded. The agency pointed out that the policy space continues to open, the recent fundamentals have improved significantly, the core fact that the superimposed sector is at a low valuation and low position has not changed, and there is no shortage of catalysts for the rebound of the real estate sector.
On the policy side, the LPR interest rate was lowered again. On 22 July, the central bank cut the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPRs) by 10bps each. Judging from the trend of LPR, the first quarter of this year showed a trend of "breaking 4", the second interest rate cut in the current year, and the cancellation of the lower limit of mortgage interest rates in many places, housing loans have entered the historical easing stage, that is, they have begun to enter the "breaking 3" stage, and the mortgage interest rate may meet the "2" period.
In terms of the property market, the online signing has increased significantly after the new policy of the Beijing property market. On the first weekend of the new policy, the number of online signatures for new homes in Beijing surged to 720 units, compared with 300 units in the previous weekend, an increase of 140%. From June 27th to July 24th, the number of online signatures for new houses was 4,233, compared with 3,047 sets from May 27th to June 24th, an increase of nearly 40%.
In terms of sector holdings, the real estate sector holdings in 2024Q2 are still in a state of underweighting. According to the analysis of China Securities Construction Investment, the market value of real estate holdings at the end of the second quarter was 47.6 billion yuan, down 5.8% from the previous quarter, the industry standard allocation was 1.3%, and the allocation ratio of public funds was 0.8%, which was 0.0 percentage points lower than the industry standard allocation, and it has been underweight for 18 consecutive quarters. From the perspective of increasing holdings, public funds prefer high-quality central state-owned enterprises and business service enterprises.
In terms of valuation, leading real estate is still in the low range of historical limits. Taking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index as an example, as of July 26, the latest PB of the index was 0.61 times, which was only 1.76% quantile in the past 10 years, and there may be more room for upward repair.
Image source: Wind
Founder Securities pointed out that the LPR was lowered again during the year, which combined with the "destocking" policy to further restore the sentiment of the real estate market. The policy space continues to open, there is no shortage of catalysts for the rebound of the plate, the fundamentals of the plate have improved significantly in the near future, the policy continues to be introduced and the space still exists, and the plate repair has the foundation and logic.
In terms of allocation, Caixin Securities recommends paying attention to three types of real estate enterprises: (1) At present, the real estate support policy is continuing to exert force, and there is still room for further increase in the follow-up, and it is recommended to focus on the leading real estate enterprises in the first and second-tier core cities; (2) With the promotion of stabilizing demand and ensuring the delivery of buildings, the property market sales are expected to show marginal improvement, and large state-owned real estate enterprises with stable fundamentals can be paid attention to; (3) In the context of the continuous promotion of the real estate financing coordination mechanism, some of the leading private enterprises included in the "white list" of real estate enterprise financing are expected to usher in credit restoration.
Layout of central state-owned enterprises and high-quality real estate enterprises, related products real estate ETF (159707). According to the data, the real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 real estate index, brings together 12 head high-quality real estate companies in the market, and has obvious head concentration advantages in the investment direction, with the top ten constituent equity weights exceeding 9 percent, and the content of central state-owned enterprises is high! The Real Estate ETF (159707) is also the only industry ETF that tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index in the market, which has scarcity and recognition.
Pictures and data sources: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Huabao Fund, Wind, etc., as of 2024.7.26.
Risk Warning: The National Defense and Military ETF passively tracks the CSI Military Index, the base date of the index is 2004.12.31, released on 2013.12.26, and the annual historical returns from 2019 to 2023 are: 22.02%, 67.91%, 14.28%, -25.74%, and -11.02%; The leading consumer ETF passively tracks the CSI Consumer Leading Index, which has a base date of 2004.12.31 and a release date of 2018.11.21, and a brokerage ETF passively tracks the CSI All-Index Securities Company Index, which has a base date of 2007.6.29 and was released on July 15, 2013, with an annual historical return of 44.50%, 16.55%, -4.95%, -27.37% and 3.04% from 2019 to 2023, respectively. The real estate ETF passively tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, which has a base date of 2004.12.31 and a release date of 2012.12.21. The composition of the index constituents is adjusted in accordance with the rules of the index, and its backtested historical performance is not indicative of the future performance of the index. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only objectively displayed and enumerated as index constituent stocks, and are not recommended as any individual stocks, and do not represent the fund manager and fund investment direction. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors shall be responsible for any investment behavior determined independently. In addition, any opinions, analysis and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor do they assume any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this article. Investors should carefully read the Fund Contract, Prospectus, Fund Product Key Facts Statement and other legal documents of the fund, understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, and choose products that are suitable for their own risk tolerance. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund. According to the assessment of the fund manager, the risk level of national defense and military ETFs, consumer leading ETFs, brokerage ETFs, and real estate ETFs is R3-medium risk, and investors with balanced (C3) and above are suitable for matching opinions. Please refer to the sales agency for suitability matching opinions. Investors should pay attention to the suitability opinions issued by the fund managers in a timely manner when the distribution agencies (including fund managers, direct sales agencies and other sales agencies) conduct risk assessments of the above funds in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, and the opinions of each sales agency on the suitability are not necessarily the same, and the risk rating evaluation results of fund products issued by fund distribution agencies shall not be lower than the risk rating evaluation results made by fund managers. The risk-return characteristics of the fund and the risk level of the fund in the fund contract are different due to different factors to be considered. Investors should understand the risk and return of the fund, carefully select fund products based on their own investment objectives, horizon, investment experience and risk tolerance, and bear their own risks. The registration of the above funds by the China Securities Regulatory Commission does not indicate that it has made substantive judgments or guarantees on the investment value, market prospects and returns of the funds. Caution should be exercised when investing in funds.
The above content and data have nothing to do with the position of the interface and do not constitute investment advice. Do so at your own risk.