This week is an extremely tragic week, the market has 4 yin and 1 yang, and has continuously hit new lows for pullbacks, only on the last trading day, giving a small yang line to talk about comfort. It can be said that the trend of the broader market this week is quite critical, because for some time before, the market has been trading sideways at a low level and has not made a choice of direction. And this week is actually a choice of direction, or a downward change. Since the market has accumulated a lot of trapped disks around 2950, it is difficult to quickly recover the lost ground in the early stage if you want to change the disk downward this time! This means that the weak reversal of the market on Friday will not be too sustainable, and the probability of a rebound next week will be quite large!
Thankfully, although in the first three trading days of this week, the market and individual stocks have seen a synchronous correction, and the entire market is bleak. However, in the next two trading days, due to the large decline in small and mid-cap stocks, coupled with the accumulation of more profit orders in the high-dividend sector. The market pattern has changed by 180 degrees, and when the market is still weak, small-cap stocks have rebounded in a large area for two consecutive days, which has made the vast majority of investors breathe a sigh of relief!
So, will this 4,000-share general rally pattern continue next week? Will the high-dividend sector make a comeback?
For these two questions, let's talk about the first one, Jing Yang believes that the rebound pattern of 4,000 shares rising next week may be difficult to continue! Because as of the close of this Friday, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is still only a little more than 600 billion. This kind of stock capital game pattern is unlikely to support the continuous rebound of the vast majority of individual stocks. From this, it can be judged that there will be a clear differentiation within small-cap stocks next week, and only a small number of stocks can outperform the index!
As for whether the high-dividend sector can make a comeback, Jingyang believes that the probability is not high. On the one hand, the high-dividend sector has accumulated relatively lucrative profits, and while the market is going down, it is independent of the market upward, as long as the trend is loosened, some undetermined chips will quickly leave the market. On the other hand, the previous high-dividend sectors were low-key and strong, and retail investors simply did not notice. Now almost all retail investors are noticing the high-dividend sector, and once this happens, it means that the time point for the main force to leave the market will not be too far away!
If there is a clear divergence in small- and mid-cap stocks next week, and the high-dividend sectors cannot continue to be strong, who can be the backbone of the entire market? After integrating the news, fundamentals, capital and technical aspects, Jing Yang believes that there are two sectors in the A-share market that will be more resilient next week: one is the unmanned driving of the main line of the market in the near future; The other is the commercial aerospace that suddenly made a change this Friday! As for semiconductors and consumer electronics, which were relatively active in the previous month, there is a risk of cooling down!
First, unmanned driving: intensive positive support, although the chips are loose, the trend is still intact!
This round of the market of the unmanned sector, from the beginning of the outbreak to the present, the lines are still very clear. In the whole theme of unmanned driving, the first force is the Internet of Vehicles. The reason is that at the end of June and the beginning of July this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Notice on Announcing the List of Pilot Cities for the Application of "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" of Intelligent Connected Vehicles". 20 cities (consortiums), including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan and Shenyang, have been identified as pilot cities for the application of "vehicle-road-cloud integration" for intelligent networked vehicles.
According to Jingyang's understanding, among the 20 pilot cities, many cities have disclosed tens of billions of "vehicle-road-cloud integration" projects, if other cities follow up one after another, this shows that "vehicle-road-cloud integration" will usher in real money policy-driven, and the market size involved will reach hundreds of billions, or even trillions! This is the reason why the Internet of Vehicles sector took the lead in the past.
After July, another major event inspired a high degree of attention to unmanned driving across the country, and burned the fire to the A-share market!
In mid-July, some media reported that Baidu Radish Express ushered in an explosive growth in the number of unmanned orders in Wuhan, with a peak of more than 20 single-day orders, which is equivalent to the average daily order volume of taxi drivers. Baidu Radish has successfully tried to commercialize in Wuhan, which is tantamount to opening the key to the large-scale landing of unmanned driving in advance! Because after Wuhan, all parts of the country have begun to vigorously promote the unmanned taxi project in recent times. According to the latest news this week, Shanghai has just disclosed the launch of the "unmanned" public beta, and the unmanned online car-hailing will also be logged in August.
The craze of the radish run has also been transmitted to the A-share market. In the past half month, in the context of the continuous volatility and downward trend of the A-share market, only two sectors have strengthened independently of the broader market. One is the high-dividend sector mentioned above, which is actually 4 major banks plus 2 hydropower giants, and there are not many high-dividend stocks with a real medium-term upward trend. The other is the online car-hailing branch in the theme of unmanned driving, which has recently won the stocks ranked by unmanned online car-hailing in various places, and has been pushed up by institutions and tour capital. In less than 1 month, the increase has reached 2 times, and it is also the largest bull stock in the A-share market in July!
From the perspective of transaction data, Jingyang took July 10 as the critical point to talk to you about the rhythm of the main force of position adjustment. Before July 10, the main buying direction of major institutions was semiconductors and consumer electronics. But after July 10, that is, after the news of the radish run broke out, the main institutions obviously shifted their attention to unmanned driving and the Internet of Vehicles. Since July 10, 9 companies have been significantly increased by institutional seats in unmanned driving, which far exceeds the intensity of consumer electronics and semiconductors in the same period. It can also be that in the past half a month, unmanned driving has been the direction where the main force has increased its position the most.
However, Jingyang would like to remind everyone that due to the extremely weak performance of the broader market, the vast majority of hot spots have been poorly sustained in the near future. Therefore, during this period of time, the main institutions are not unilateral buyers on unmanned driving, and when the plate is strong, the selling pressure is not small, but there is a low absorption action during the pullback. This short-term operation mode is familiar to many of our retail investors, which is equivalent to doing T. This is also a manifestation of the lack of institutional confidence in the current market as a whole. But even so, unmanned driving is still the main goal of the main institutions in the near future, and the resilience of the sector will naturally not be low next week.
Second, commercial aerospace: the main institutions are low-key and lurking, and the bottom is showing obvious signs of stabilization!
Although the overall performance of the A-share market this year is very poor, the main line running through the market is actually quite clear. Whether it is artificial intelligence and robots in March this year, flying cars in April, semiconductors from May to June, and unmanned driving in July, these technology stock sectors can be called new quality productivity. The commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy were written into the government work report for the first time at the beginning of this year, and they are also an important part of the new quality productivity!
Judging from the news, after entering July, there are not many benefits for commercial aerospace, and the main benefits are concentrated in May and June. According to the disclosure of Jingyang's [A-share fierce material] at that time, the most important highlight of the commercial aerospace sector is the satellite network plan launched by the mainland in the first half of this year.
Starnet is an important low-orbit satellite program of the mainland against SpaceX Starlink, which mainly involves two large-scale constellation plans, namely the GW constellation and the G60 constellation. According to Jingyang's analysis at the time, the two constellations planned to launch a total of 25,000 low-orbit satellites, involving a huge market scale, and it will be officially implemented from this year. It can be said that this news is the cornerstone of the commercial aerospace sector with strong potential!
Since then, according to the International Telecommunication Union, Shanghai Blue Arrow Hongqing Technology has also submitted a "pre-release information" for the record. THE INFORMATION DOCUMENT MENTIONS A SATELLITE CONSTELLATION NETWORKING PLAN CALLED "HONGHU-3", WHICH WILL LAUNCH A TOTAL OF 10,000 SATELLITES IN 160 ORBITAL PLANES. In other words, the number of low-orbit satellites to occur on the mainland in the next few years will actually far exceed 25,000! This lays the foundation for the rapid growth of the entire industry.
Returning to the A-share market, commercial aerospace has only seen a brief change in the past few months, and has not stepped out of the trend. In recent months, the entire sector has basically been in a downward channel with the market shock pullback. However, according to Jingyang observation statistics, in the past 1 month, when the plate fell, 5 companies in the sector were secretly increased by institutional seats, and the increase in positions was not small, all of which exceeded 10 million! From the point of view of institutional position adjustment, in the falling period, it is often to absorb chips and build a bottom position, and once the chips are collected, it will enter the pull-up period!
It is worth noting that in the past 7 trading days, the commercial aerospace sector index has drawn a classic arc bottom at a low level. You must know that the overall performance of the market has been extremely weak in the past few days, and the vast majority of individual stocks have fallen, and the situation has not improved slightly until Thursday and Friday this week. And this week, while the high-dividend sector fell off the altar, commercial aerospace suddenly exerted force without any warning, and the volume broke through the very critical 20-day line pressure level. It shows that the entire sector has completed the technical stabilization of the decline. Coupled with the fact that institutions have begun to lurk on the left side recently, Jingyang has reason to believe that the performance of commercial aerospace will not be too bad next week. If it is found that there are major institutions that continue to increase their positions in this sector next week, it is not even ruled out that commercial aerospace will be promoted to the main line of the market!
From Jingyang's point of view, although it is very difficult for the market to rebound continuously next week. However, in a weak market, unmanned and commercial aerospace still have a chance to strengthen independently of the broader market. However, Jingyang still wants to remind everyone that in the current market environment, we must control the rhythm, not chase high after a few days of continuous rise, but only buy low during the pullback. Take the commercial aerospace that rose sharply on Friday as an example, if the inertia continues to rise next Monday, the risk will definitely outweigh the opportunity if you chase it at this time. You might as well wait for the sector to buy low after the mid-week pullback, and the safety will definitely be higher!
In addition to these two sectors, many investors are now most concerned about semiconductors and consumer electronics. From a fundamental point of view, there is nothing wrong with semiconductors and consumer electronics, and this year's performance will generally not be bad, and now it is only the middle of the year, and it is not ruled out that there will be a trend in the second half of this year. However, in terms of short-term trends, consumer electronics and semiconductors have shown signs of weakening this week. This can be seen in the trend on Thursday and Friday, where the last two days of the week were 4,000 shares rebounding. However, consumer electronics and semiconductors have not kept up with the rhythm, and the rebound is low, indicating that the willingness of funds to pursue when individual stocks are generally rising. This can also be corroborated by the above Jingyang's analysis of the transaction data of driverless institutions, after July 10, the inflow of institutions into consumer electronics and unmanned driving began to decrease.
If you still have positions in consumer electronics and driverless driving, what will you do next week? Jingyang believes that even if the sector has a short-term cooling risk, the short-term operation cannot make up for the position, and the best strategy is to find an opportunity to reduce the position when the market rebounds next week.