Recently, there has been a new development in the "2.14 vicious ship collision incident"!
When the Taiwan authorities thought that they could spend 2.6 million yuan to solve the problem, and the island even believed that the mainland would make concessions, no longer characterize the incident as a "malicious collision," and gave up other demands for accountability, the mainland waved a "blow to the head"!
First of all, I want to say that this negotiation was a stumbling one, which lasted more than five months!
Finally, at the end of July, representatives from both sides of the strait decided to deal with the aftermath at the Jinhu Hotel in Kinmen. As you may recall, the smoke of the Kinmen artillery battle was here.
Times have changed, and now it has become a landscape at the negotiating table. However, God made a little joke, Typhoon "Gemei" came to join in the fun, the mini three links were stopped, and the representatives of the mainland could only postpone it. Although there were hiccups in this meeting, it didn't matter, it was bound to come to an end in the end.
According to news reports, the Taiwan authorities decided to compensate the families of each victim with 1.3 million yuan and formally apologize. This is much better than the procrastination of the previous months.
Unexpectedly, however, there was also news on the island that the mainland side would also make concessions, no longer characterize the collision as a "malicious collision," and give up further accountability.
However, if Lai Qingde thinks that just a simple compensation and apology can solve the problem, it is too naïve, and the water behind it is very deep.
According to an analysis on the island, a series of problems, such as the Jinxia capsizing incident and the detention of the "Dajinman No. 88" fishing boat in Penghu, will also be gradually resolved.
The mainland originally planned to impose a fine, but because it was dissatisfied with the Taiwan authorities' stubborn attitude, it decided to deal with the collision first. In short, the Taiwanese families are ready to take their relatives home.
When the "14 February vicious ship collision incident" first broke out, the mainland reacted quickly and immediately arranged for people to go to Kinmen, while the Taiwan authorities pushed back and obstructed it, and there were as many as 15 rounds of negotiations in between.
Some people say that this is because Lai Qingde and other "Taiwan independence" elements are engaged in political manipulation and are trying to take the opportunity to stir up cross-strait relations, with the result that the entire situation in the Taiwan Strait has also risen with the tide and has gone out of control.
However, the change in the attitude of the Taiwan authorities may be influenced by various internal and external factors.
On the one hand, the mainland has stepped up its encirclement of Taiwan, and PLA military planes have frequently carried out activities around the Taiwan Strait, which has made the Taiwan authorities feel real pressure.
On the other hand, the Taiwan authorities' biggest backer, United States, is also unstable. The 2024 election is in full swing, the Biden administration is gradually losing ground, and Trump is coming back strongly. In this situation, the Taiwan authorities are simply "hanging by a thread."
Looking at several election years in history, it is no wonder that United States has wavered in its Taiwan policy. The Biden administration has relied on selling weapons to give Taiwan's military a façade, and some extremist factions of the Republican Party have even put forward the theory of "destroying Taiwan."
Trump seems to be inclined to strategic contraction, and only wants to charge more protection money for arms sales to Taiwan, which makes the Taiwan authorities have to make some preparations in advance. Therefore, the background of the two sides of the strait being able to sit down at the negotiating table again is complicated.
Of course, you can't talk too much. Things haven't fully landed yet, and it remains to be seen what the authorities will do. If they continue to play tricks and intensify the contradictions, the mainland is not vegetarian either.
"Punch hard" is not just lip service. If the Taiwan authorities show sincerity and respect the reasonable demands put forward by the mainland, they will all be happy. But if they are deceitful and stubborn, they will only be served by an "iron fist".
Time has come to this day, and a much-watched "Han Kuang exercise" on the Taiwan side was forced to terminate ahead of schedule due to the impact of the typhoon.
The originally planned live-fire drill was changed to a sand table deduction exercise, and the live-fire project was cancelled entirely. The Taiwan authorities are depressed in their hearts, this is an annual time to show their muscles!
However, it is worth noting that before the typhoon made landfall, the PLA's patrol operations remained high-intensity. 22 sorties of military aircraft and 10 warships were frequent.
Taiwan's defense department found that after the typhoon, there was no military fuselage in the PLA's patrol of Taiwan, and only three warships were left operating around the Taiwan Strait. This is the first time in recent times that no PLA military aircraft has patrolled Taiwan.
The Taiwan authorities thought they had taken a breath, but before they could catch their breath, the mainland's "blow to the head" came.
It is reported that the mainland's Bohai Pearl and Bohai Baozhu, two giant civilian ro-ro ships, have appeared near Nanao Island. Although it is not known exactly what they are doing, in light of past experience, there is a high probability that they are conducting a new round of landing combat exercises.
You must know that this kind of ro-ro ship of more than 20,000 tons is not an ordinary means of transportation. They have a large tonnage and an astonishing load, and the Bohai Pearl can carry more than 200 vehicles. If these transport capacities were used in combat, transporting thousands of vehicles and thousands of soldiers at once, it would be a terrifying combat power.
Such ro-ro ships do not have high defense capabilities in peacetime and are more suitable for transporting follow-up troops. Imagine a vanguard beaching with landing ships, an air force seizing air supremacy, and a ro-ro ship quickly docking to unload more troops and vehicles.
The PLA is also familiar with the entire process, and if necessary, it can complete the landing operation in the shortest possible time.
So, ladies and gentlemen, the situation in the Taiwan Strait today is far more complicated than what we see. Every dialogue and exercise between the two sides of the strait is full of strategic and tactical games. As for what the Taiwan authorities will say and do, which the public is concerned about, I believe that there will be results within a few days, so let us wait and see.