Who can win China's second Olympic city?

National Strategy

2024-07-28 11:25Posted in Guangdong financial field creators

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012024 the opening of the Paris Olympics, the Olympic bid has gradually picked up, and more than 10 countries have expressed their willingness to bid for the 2036 Olympic Games.

02 At present, no city in China has made a clear bid to host the 2036 Olympic Games, but the three major combinations of Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao, and Sichuan and Chongqing have the highest voice.

03Due to the rise of the economy and the increase of global influence, China is expected to bid for the Olympics again and become the second city of the Olympic Games.

04However, bidding for the Olympics needs to take into account international popularity, economic and financial resources, and strategic considerations, and it is not yet possible to determine who will win.

05The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is making an appearance as a whole in terms of sports events, jointly competing for some large-scale international events, laying the foundation for the future joint competition for the right to host the Olympic Games.

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Text: Kaifeng

The Olympics is a test of comprehensive national strength and urban competitiveness.

A few days ago, the 2024 Paris Olympics kicked off, and a "flowing feast" was staged on the banks of the Seine, showing the image of an open, inclusive and diverse city.

In previous years, due to the asymmetry of investment and returns, the Summer Olympics were once cold, and there were few applicants, and there were still 5 cities bidding for the 2024 Olympics, and only one city was left to advance directly to the 2032 Olympics.

At present, the 2028 and 2032 Olympic Games have been held in Los Angeles, United States, Brisbane, Australia, and the latest pending Olympic Games are the 2036 Olympics.

However, in the last two years, the Olympics have suddenly picked up, and more than 10 countries have now expressed their willingness to bid for the 2036 Olympic Games.

Will China bid for the Olympics again? Who can represent China? Who will be China's second Olympic city?

01

Why is it suddenly getting hot again in the Olympics?

Not long ago, IOC President Thomas Bach said that double-digit cities have already joined the bid to host the 2036 Olympic Games.

These regions include India, Korea, Mexico, Turkey, Germany, Indonesia, Qatar, Egypt, Poland, etc., involving more than 10 cities.

India officials even described its determination as "sparing no effort", saying that "this is the dream and aspiration of 1.4 billion Indians".

Behind the rebound in Olympic bids, it is mainly due to changes in the international economic pattern, and a number of developing countries have emerged and urgently need to show themselves through large-scale international events.

This is true in countries such as India, Mexico, Indonesia, etc. As the beneficiaries of the global industrial shift, these countries lead the GDP growth rate of major economies, and there is no incentive to use the Olympics to show development results.

In addition to the economy, the Olympics seem to be expected to be higher.

Egypt wants to be the first country in Africa to host the Olympics, India is trying to show the speed of development as the world's most populous country, and Mexico is committed to recreating the historic glory of hosting the 1968 Olympics.

In addition, the Olympic bidding process has also been greatly renovated, and it is no longer limited to a single city, but can be jointly held by multiple cities or even multiple countries (regions), which also opens the door to co-hosting the Olympic Games.

Of course, hosting the Olympics is a battle of comprehensive national strength, with an investment of more than $10 billion at every turn, and it is necessary to take into account not only its own sports facilities, but also its economic and financial affordability, and more importantly, to consider the sustainable development of the future.

The final decision is not yet made, and the host of the 2036 Games will not be confirmed until a few years at the earliest.

02

Who is most likely to become China's second Olympic city?

Although there has never been an official bid for the new Olympics, a list of 12 cities has been widely circulated on social media.

These cities include Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, Xiamen, Xi'an, etc

Among these cities, the highest voice is not a single city, but three major combinations: Shanghai, Suzhou and Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao, and Sichuan and Chongqing.

At present, only Beijing in China has hosted the Olympic Games, and it integrates the Summer Olympics and the Winter Olympics, making it one of the few cities in the world with "double Olympics".

The last Summer Olympics were held in 2008, 16 years ago. From 2008 to 2036, it is a long cycle spanning 28 years.

In recent years, with China's rise to become the world's second largest economy and the largest manufacturing country, its global influence has long been unprecedented, and outside of Beijing, a number of economically strong cities have stood out and stood tall in the world, with the ability and motivation to host the new Olympic Games.

The reason why the 2036 Olympics is important is that 2035 is an extremely critical time node for China.

This year is the year of the end of the first phase of the "two five-year periods," the year in which the mainland is basically built into a modern country, and the year in which the mainland enters the level of per capita income of a moderately developed country.

Although no domestic city has yet made a clear statement on its bid to host the Olympics, as long as the national level is interested, with China's comprehensive national strength, sports facilities and urban development, the probability of winning is only high.

Running a good meeting and invigorating a city is a saying that is widely known in the mainland.

The event is never just an event, but is entrusted with the important task of enhancing the city's popularity, revitalizing cultural and tourism resources, promoting the construction of public facilities and even stimulating the economy.

So, as long as it can, no city wants to miss out on this international feast.

03

If it really wants to host the 2036 Olympics, who can represent China?

Among many cities, Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Macao, and Sichuan and Chongqing have the highest voice.

Considering the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, which has hosted the Olympic Games, these are the four most mature urban agglomerations in China, representing the four poles of China's urbanization and comprehensive transportation system.

Not only that, but there is no shortage of experience in hosting major events in these regions. For example, Guangzhou and Hangzhou have hosted the Asian Games, Shenzhen and Chengdu have hosted the Universiade, and the infrastructure of relevant venues is relatively sound.

However, whether or not the Olympic Games can be hosted depends not only on whether it has international popularity, but also on whether it can withstand economic and financial resources.

From the perspective of international popularity, Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao are obviously better. Shanghai and Hong Kong are both leading global cities, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen are in the first echelon of the "Alpha" level in the world city matrix.

From the perspective of economic and financial resources, Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao have the greatest advantages, with many economically strong cities and huge fiscal revenues, which can be called the regions with the highest economic density and population density in the mainland.

In contrast, Sichuan and Chongqing have a relatively low international reputation, although the economy is not weak, with a total GDP of more than 9 trillion yuan, but it is still doubtful whether there is sufficient financial support for over-reliance on transfer payments.

In addition to economic strength, what is more important is the strategic significance of hosting the Olympic Games, whether it can promote regional integration and even the overall improvement of international competitiveness.

From the perspective of regional development strategy, Shanghai, Suzhou and Hangzhou focus on the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, the integrated development of the Greater Bay Area based on Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao, and Sichuan and Chongqing are the "tale of two cities" in the Chengdu-Chongqing region.

Through the Olympics, Shanghai will strengthen its status as a global city, and the presence of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao in the international community will be further highlighted, and Chengdu and Chongqing will be able to enter the world stage.

It can be said that each place has its own considerations, but in the end, who wins depends on economic, financial and strategic considerations.

04

Why doesn't Shanghai host a large-scale comprehensive international event?

As China's largest economic city, Shanghai has no experience in hosting large-scale comprehensive international events, whether it is the Olympic Games, the Asian Games or even the Universiade.

Although there is no shortage of top international events in Shanghai, such as the F1 Chinese Grand Prix, the Shanghai Tennis Masters, and the Shanghai International Marathon, they are all limited to a certain field and are not comprehensive events.

There is a clear absence for a metropolis that is positioned as a "global city" and aims to be the "capital of international sporting events".

In fact, although Shanghai has frequently refuted rumors about the Olympics, it is not without waves.

As early as 2018, Shanghai issued a public announcement on the feasibility study service of bidding for the 2032 Summer Olympics, which was considered a signal to compete for the Olympics, but it was later refuted, and the local government explained that this move was a "basic study to build an event system" and did not need to be over-interpreted.

Subsequently, in its "14th Five-Year Plan" for sports development, Shanghai clearly mentioned that "considering the future needs of urban development, reserve land for large-scale comprehensive sports event venues", giving people unlimited imagination.

In the first half of last year, when IOC President Bach visited Shanghai, the relevant parties said that Shanghai would speed up the construction of a world-famous sports city and introduce more top international events under the guidance of the IOC.

Although there is no direct statement, whether it is for strategic planning or long-term development considerations, Shanghai has the confidence and strength to become China's next Olympic city.

Of course, Shanghai can also bear the Olympic expenses on its own, but if it can unite with sister cities in the metropolitan area, it will undoubtedly be able to give full play to the comprehensive effect of the Olympic Games.

05

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, how competitive is it?

As early as more than 10 years ago, after the Guangzhou Asian Games and the Shenzhen Universiade, there were proposals from Guangzhou and Shenzhen or Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao to jointly bid for the Olympic Games, but in the end, they did not come to fruition.

In recent years, with the emergence of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao are being connected through cross-sea bridges and cross-city subways.

Today, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with a total GDP of more than 14 trillion yuan and a permanent population of more than 86 million, can be called the world's largest "urban area".

Looking at the world, this size is comparable to Australia, Russia, Korea and other countries, equivalent to the 10th largest economy, whether it is economic density, enterprise density or innovation density, it is second to none in the world.

With the accelerated integration of the three places, whether it is the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta, or Hong Kong and Macao, they are no longer fighting alone, but participating in the great power game and the competition of the technology industry as a whole, pointing to the world's largest "super city".

In terms of sporting events, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is making an appearance as a whole, jointly competing for some large-scale international events.

The 2025 National Games will be jointly hosted by Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, which is a milestone in the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and lays the foundation for the future competition for the right to host the Olympic Games.

As the official said, the 15th National Games is the largest, highest-level, and most influential comprehensive games hosted by Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and is also the first time that Hong Kong and Macao have hosted the National Games, which has far-reaching impact and great significance.

If it is said that the cross-sea bridge and cross-city subway bring hard connection, shorten the physical distance between the bay areas; Then the joint holding of large-scale events is the embodiment of soft connectivity, shortening the psychological distance between the three places.

Of course, whether or not the Olympics can be held and where they will be implemented does not mainly depend on local will, but on the will of the country and the needs of the overall situation.

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's joint bid to host the Olympics is more important for the further integration of the three places, especially the integration of Hong Kong and Macao into the overall development of the country.

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