Rising is a good thing, but sometimes it can be confusing. For example, the current wheat price is staggering.
Some time ago, the wheat market was weak and difficult to change, not only the supply and demand were weak, the sentiment was also weak, and the expectations were weaker, and according to the previous analysis, there was no obvious sign of reversal in the short term.
In other words, wheat is likely to be in this weak pattern for the next period of time.
But the amazing thing is that in this market where you are weak and I am weak, suddenly it will go up.
And what is even more incomprehensible is that not only wheat has risen, but even bran has also risen.
Doesn't it mean that the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and no one wants it?
Doesn't it mean that feed companies are still waiting and waiting to replace more?
We have to admit that the fluctuations of the market have their own rhythm, and falling does not mean falling all the time, and rising does not mean reversing, but more ups and downs.
So, what is the logic behind this sudden rise in wheat?
The main driving force is that the policy side has released positive signals.
At present, the only thing that wheat can borrow is probably policy, and the storage is nearing the end, and only the increase in reserves is still continuing.
But the news of the increase in reserves is also like a mud cow entering the sea, and there has been no news for many days. In the past two days, after a lapse of more than 20 days, China Grain Reserves has once again released a new round of information on increasing reserves, involving Shandong, Beijing, Jiangsu, Anhui, etc.
The increase in reserves has finally been exerted again.
But we have also analyzed before that the market has a certain immunity to the increase in reserves, that is, even if the news is released again, it may not be able to work on the market immediately, but why is it following the pace of increasing reserves this time?
Because after the signal is released, both the buyer and the seller receive it.
From the point of view of the main body of grain holding, as soon as the news landed, the grain delivery truck was eager to circle the storage point and summarize it into 4 words, that is, selling grain and selling grain behind it are also 4 words: hurry up.
What does this mean?
It shows that the main body of grain holding has not reversed its mood because of the re-release of the news of increasing reserves, and still maintains a very cautious attitude towards wheat.
In the same way, flour companies have also received this signal, which means that the policy side of the wheat market and the bottom of the role is still obvious, that is to say, the wheat bottoms out, and the probability of a sharp fall is very small.
Therefore, this also makes some low-inventory enterprises start the operation of replenishment.
Policy is like the east wind, everyone wants to borrow the east wind, sometimes the main body of grain can borrow, sometimes the buyer can borrow, today you borrow, tomorrow he borrows, so the wheat market will also fluctuate.
And why has the bran also risen?
is also following the trend to see if there is a chance to promote the rise.
However, on the whole, wheat is still weak and difficult to change, and the right to speak in the wheat market is still mainly in two aspects:
The first is the regulation and control of the policy side.
For example, the price of increasing reserves and storage is regarded as the ceiling of wheat prices.
The second is the game between buyers and sellers.
Whether the east wind overpowers the west wind or the west wind overpowers the east wind, wheat also fluctuates back and forth within a controlled range.
In addition, we also note that in addition to the boost of reserves, the rotation of some unfinished tasks is also in full swing, and there are signs of strengthening in recent transactions.
So from this point of view, the logic behind this round of wheat rise is clearly visible.
At the same time, it also means that this round of rising momentum is not strong, and the time is not long, the general pattern of wheat has not changed, and the probability of volatility has increased.
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