To share my community's review yesterday, the original text is as follows:
Today's market continues yesterday's divergence, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks.
The rhythm of clearing out of the large and small markets is inconsistent.
Large-cap stocks are in the process of shifting institutional positioning to equilibrium.
1. The Politburo meeting came to an end
Today's Politburo meeting came to an end, and the contents of the meeting were sent out on the plate.
This is a relatively rare situation, indicating that at least Shangfeng believes that the content of the meeting is positive.
However, the current state of the stock market is slow to react to the news.
Because the rebalancing behavior of the institution is a passive behavior.
In the second half of the year, it will mainly depend on the pace of finance and how specific measures to boost domestic demand are implemented.
Anyone who has been on a team knows that the implementation of any project will not be smooth sailing.
There will be constant disagreements and contradictions, and there will even be the fallacy of synthesis (the correct merger of parts can end up being a huge mistake). ）
Therefore, an organization needs to constantly unify ideas, reach consensus, actively coordinate, and then adjust as it goes.
There's no way, there's no hurry.
Second, small-cap stocks may be the first to complete the phased liquidation
As the institution's small-cap stock position has reached a stage low, as long as the management does not increase the liquidation, there is a high probability that the funds will cover the position.
At present, there is basically no restriction on the transaction of travel capital, and we have seen some phenomena.
1.ST sector continued its upward trend.
2. The number of daily limits has increased, and there are 82 stocks with daily limits today.
The median market value of the limit stock is about 2.6 billion.
The number of 3.ST sector limits rose to 20.
4. Brokerages have stabilized and rebounded.
These are the directions of speculation and speculation, especially for floating capital.
However, the clearing of the entire market still needs to be confirmed from the turnover, and today's turnover is only 599.5 billion.
3. The liquidation of large-cap stock positions is nearing the end
The restrictions on public offerings have not yet been fully opened.
In the process of random opening, institutions will be more inclined to concentrate selling, so the pressure will be greater.
In the process of selling, the direction of heavy positions is under the greatest pressure.
Large-cap stocks may have to wait to see when food and beverages stop falling and rebound.
At present, the PE of food and beverage is already at a very low position.
And the dividend yield is around 3.5%.
The overall allocation ratio of institutions has decreased from a peak of 22.22% to 10.53% now, which is lower than the level in 2018 and 2022.
It is estimated that it will appear soon.
Because the weight of food and beverage in the CSI 300 has been reduced to 10.16%.
Then when the national team buys 300 ETFs, the hedging of selling pressure on food and beverages will become stronger and stronger.
For example, when the national team rose at the end of the day today, the increase in food and beverage was greater than that of the CSI 300.
Food and beverages were pulled by 0.8%, and the CSI 300 was pulled by 0.5%.
The decline of the CSI 300 is mainly caused by the adjustment of institutional positions. It's not really how many people want to net sell.
With the equalization of institutional positions, the future trend will be more stable.
Because the equalization of institutional positions is actually equivalent to increasing positions in CSI 300. (Abandon track investment)
Fourth, the tail plate of the national team sweeps the goods
Yesterday the national team was silent for a day.
However, ETFs have inflowed 4.2 billion, indicating that the market itself has funds to buy the bottom through the index.
At the end of today, the CSI 300 ETF increased volume. The turnover is about 15 billion.
What is more interesting is that after pulling to a platform, it will remain oscillating and will not continue to rise.
This is most likely a kind of fund-raising behavior.
Fifth, the bond market is short, siphoning funds
Yesterday, long-term bonds staged a short squeeze, and today the short squeeze continues.
Not long ago, Yang Ma just restricted the excessive trading behavior of rural commercial banks.
At present, those who are still trying their best to buy long-term bonds are most likely funds and some asset management institutions.
This sentiment-driven bull market will attract a lot of money to follow.
This indirectly leads to a shortage of blood supply to the stock market.
This wave of short squeezing in the bond market will come to an end after the bears are dead.
This wave of A-share liquidation continues to produce a chain reaction.
As a result, the clearing lasted too long, and people's tempers were almost worn out.
But this level is certainly not a place to sell.
The reward is voluntary, and 1 cent is silently supported, haha!
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