As soon as Iran proposed to lift sanctions, the Hamas leader died mysteriously. On July 31, the public relations department of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that Hamas leader Ismail · Haniyeh and one of his bodyguards were killed in an attack in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Iran media reported that Haniyeh traveled to Tehran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iran's new president, Pezeshiqiyan. On 30 July, Peześcićyan was sworn in in parliament. On the same day, Haniyeh met with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali and President Pezeshiziyan, along with Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ziad · Nahal. Shortly after the meeting, however, Chania and one of her bodyguards were attacked at their home, killing both of them. At present, the details of the attack are not clear, but a statement released by Hamas on the 30th shows that Chanih died in a raid launched by Israel.
If this statement is true, then Israel is undoubtedly too bold. Because this was the inauguration of the President of Iran, the ceremony was attended not only by representatives of armed groups such as Hamas, Allah and the Houthis in Yemen, but also by representatives of sovereign states such as the foreign minister of Turkey and the prime minister of Azerbaijan. If Israel could easily carry out assassinations in the Iranian capital, wouldn't the security of the representatives of these sovereign States be threatened? Even the safety of Iran's new president himself may not be guaranteed. After all, the previous president, Raisi, died in a bizarre helicopter crash.
From this perspective, Israel's assassination of Haniyeh was not only a blow to Hamas, but also a warning to Hamas supporters such as Iran and Turkey. Recently, for example, Israel quarreled with Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the Gaza war and the conflict on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Erdogan has threatened that Turkey troops could enter Israel to help the Palestinians defend themselves against an invasion, as they did in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and Libya. Israel's Foreign Minister Katz threatened not to forget Saddam's fate and urged other NATO members to condemn Turkey's actions and expel it from the alliance.
Since NATO has no mechanism for expelling members, Israel's appeal will not have any effect. But for Israel, "if you can't fight Turkey, can't you fight Lebanon?" ”。 On 30 July, Israel again launched large-scale air strikes against Lebanon. Israeli warplanes struck 10 Allah targets in seven districts of southern Lebanon overnight, killing one armed man, while also attacking Allah's arsenals, infrastructure, military buildings and launchers. As for the reason for the attack, the Israeli side claimed that 10 rockets were fired from Lebanon that day, one of which hit a residential area in northern Israel, killing one person. But in fact, Israel's main motive is to give the new Iran government a "dismissal." On July 29, the day before the presidential inauguration, Iran's President Pezekhizsian spoke by phone with France President Emmanuel Macron and warned Israel not to attack Lebanon. In the call, he said that once the Zionist regime attacks Lebanon, "it will make a huge mistake and the consequences will be serious."
But Israel is going to work against Iran. On July 30, an Israeli drone attacked the southern suburbs of Lebanon's capital, Beirut, killing three people and injuring 74. According to the Israeli army, the air strike killed the Lebanon Allah party's "highest-ranked" military commander, Fouad · Shukur, who is a senior military adviser and "most important aide" to the Allah party leader Nasrallah and is directly responsible for the attack on the Golan Heights on 27 July. He has also commanded a series of Allah attacks against Israel since 7 October last year.
What is Israel trying to do by killing the Allah commander and then assassinating the Hamas leader? Is it true that Netanyahu is not going to reach a ceasefire agreement with Hamas? By some indications, the Israel government seems to be being hijacked by public opinion. On July 29, for example, the Israel military detained nine reservists on suspicion of ill-treating a Palestinian prisoner at the Staterman detention center in southern Israel. According to the Palestinian Prisoners' Club, the soldiers were not only suspected of abuse, but even sexually assaulted the prisoners. However, Israel's right-wingers did not accept this argument and held protests outside Palestinian prisoner detention centers and military bases where Israeli soldiers were held, and at one point broke into the prison area to try to rescue captured Israeli soldiers. Ben-Gvir, the far-right Minister of National Security of Israel, also waved his flag, saying that "no action can be done against reservists."
Despite Netanyahu's condemnation of these protests and the Israeli Army's Chief of General Staff Halevi calling them "absolutely unacceptably egregious", the opposition believes that the police at the scene simply did not do their duty and allowed the demonstrators to break into the military base, and the deputy speaker of parliament, Vaturi, even openly incited the demonstrators. Defense Minister Gallant also questioned that Ben-Gvir, who is the Minister of Security, may have given an order to the police not to stop the demonstrators.
It is not difficult to see that Israel is once again divided over whether to sign a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. Netanyahu was reluctant to cease fire, and only wanted Hamas to unilaterally release the hostages, and then catch them all. Now the protests of right-wingers have just given Netanyahu an excuse to delay negotiations. If the heads of Allah and Hamas are assassinated at this time, the contradictions between the two sides will only become more unsolvable. Netanyahu could use this as an opportunity to expand the war and wipe out Allah and Hamas once and for all.
It should be noted that Iran Israel is more subtle about the plan to eliminate the Allah Party and Hamas. While the President of Iran stressed that Israel's attack on Lebanon would have serious consequences; Iran will never succumb to coercion, pressure and double standards and will continue to support the Palestinian people. But judging by the results, Israel simply did not take Pezeshiziyan's words seriously. In his inaugural speech, the main focus was not on Gaza, but on how to lift Western sanctions and improve the living standards of Iran. For example, Pezeshiziyan said that the new government will make solving economic problems a top priority, actively interact with countries around the world, and follow the path of "justice" and "fairness". He also called on Western countries to respect Iran and restore normal trade between Iran and other countries in the world. On this basis, Iran is willing to continue negotiations with the West on the nuclear issue.
There is an opinion that as the newly appointed moderate president, Pezeshiziyan is unlikely to engage in a large-scale conflict with Israel over Allah and Hamas. Developing the economy and improving people's livelihood is Iran's top priority. Iran is unlikely to delve into Hania's assassination. After all, the embassy in Syria was bombed before, and Iran only fired dozens of missiles with poor accuracy, most of which were intercepted, and almost did no harm to Israel. Now that Hamas's armed forces are depleted, it is difficult to transform into a political party, and Hania's use value has long been exhausted. Iran cannot gamble its own fortunes for the sake of a proxy.
To a certain extent, Haniyeh's death itself is a letter of surrender handed over to the West by the new Iran government, and only when the Hamas leader dies and the Hamas organization collapses and the Hamas organization is broken up can Iran be able to draw a line with it and gain the understanding of the West, and Iran's economy can really improve. And that would explain why Israel dared to target Hamas's leaders and hit their homes precisely at a time when a large number of foreign dignitaries were gathering in Tehran. The reason is that Israel's move has the tacit approval and even intelligence support of some Iran insiders.