On July 30, the Australia Wine Association released the global export data of Australian wine from April to June, showing that driven by the strong export market to Chinese mainland, the total export value of Australian wine in the first half of the year increased by 33% year-on-year, reaching 1.183 billion Australian dollars (about 5.628 billion yuan).
At the same time, exports to Chinese mainland increased by nearly 100 times, reaching 394 million Australian dollars (about 1.874 billion yuan), accounting for one-third of total exports, quickly climbing to the first place in export value, and the export volume also climbed to the fourth place. From the second quarter data alone, the export value to Chinese mainland has exceeded the sum of the bottom 13 export destinations.
1
Total global exports increased significantly, but the rest of the world except Chinese mainland saw an overall decline
From the data of global exports in the first half of the year, the total export volume of Australian wine was 304,700 kiloliters, and the total export value was 1.183 billion Australian dollars, an increase of 4.3% and 33% year-on-year, respectively, while the average export price was 3.88 Australian dollars / liter (about 18.5 yuan / liter), a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, showing that the increase in total exports is not only due to the reopening of the Chinese mainland market, but also the increase in the average export price is also an important factor.
The top five export destinations in terms of export value are: Chinese mainland, United Kingdom, United States, Hong Kong, China, and Canada, accounting for nearly 70% of the total export value, of which Chinese mainland, which ranks first, accounts for 33%; The top five export destinations in terms of export volume are: United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Chinese mainland and New Zealand, accounting for nearly 76% of the total exports, of which Chinese mainland accounts for more than 10%.
However, from the specific data, except for Chinese mainland, the overall export value and volume of Australian wine to the rest of the world (excluding Chinese mainland) have declined to a certain extent, and Singapore and Hong Kong, China, which are more closely connected with the Chinese mainland market, have also experienced significant double-digit declines.
In this regard, a senior industry insider believes that from the export situation of Australian wine in the first half of the year, the growth is not inclusive, and there is also an obvious squeeze growth within it.
Peter Bailey, Australia Wine Market Research Manager, also said: "The global trading environment remains very challenging, with wine consumption continuing to decline in many markets around the world due to slowing trends and cost-of-living pressures. There are also persistent problems in the shipping industry, with global vessel shortages and rising freight and charter rates. ”
2
In the second quarter, the export volume to Chinese mainland increased by 144 times and 188 times respectively, but it still has not penetrated into the terminal market
Looking at the export data of the second quarter alone, Australian wine exports are particularly affected by the Chinese mainland market. After the Chinese government officially canceled the "double reversal" of Australian wine at the end of March, the volume of exports to the Chinese mainland market began to soar.
In the second quarter of April-June, exports to Chinese mainland were 30,700 kiloliters, with an export value of 389 million Australian dollars (about 1.85 billion yuan), an increase of 144 times and 188 times year-on-year respectively, ranking second in export volume after United Kingdom, and ranking first in export value, and exceeding the total export value of the bottom 13. The average export price to Chinese mainland was A$12.68/litre (about RMB60/litre), up 30.1% year-on-year.
Specifically, unlike other major export destinations, Australian wine exported to the Chinese mainland market is mainly red wine, with an export value of 384 million Australian dollars (about 1.827 billion yuan), accounting for 98.65%, and the volume accounting for 96.42%, from the perspective of red wine category alone, the volume has ranked first.
Other major export markets all declined to varying degrees in the second quarter.
Although exports to the Chinese mainland market peaked in the second quarter and led to a significant increase in the overall export value, Australian wine still faces uncertainty in the global market as a whole.
Peter Bailey said: "While these figures are very positive, they represent the restocking of Australia wines in one of the main markets after a long absence, and do not necessarily equate to a recovery in terminal sales. It will take some time to get a clearer picture of how Chinese consumers are responding to the increase in Australia wine supply in the market. Both domestic and imported wine consumption in Chinese mainland is less than a third of what it was six years ago, so Australia's wine exports are unlikely to return to their previous peaks in the short to medium term. ”
In this regard, WBO has also recently communicated with many distributors in Chinese mainland China: from the perspective of channel distributors, it is still generally watching the market trends of Australian wine and the entire wine, and is not eager to invest in the enthusiasm of active stocking. At the same time, we are also paying attention to the dynamic sales atmosphere of the entire terminal market, especially the market situation in the traditional peak season of the next "Golden September and Silver October".
As one distributor told WBO: "In the current market environment, most distributors are too afraid to be 'guinea pigs' and rashly invest large sums of money to stock up on Australian wine. Most of them are waiting to see the sales situation of the terminal, and will only be willing to increase investment in the Australian wine market when there are obvious signs of improvement. Therefore, at present, the return of Australian wine to the Chinese market is still more at the import level. ”
3
Products exported to Chinese mainland are mainly mid-to-high-end: products with an average price of 300 Australian dollars / liter and above account for nearly 10%
Specifically, the export products to Chinese mainland in the second quarter are mainly mid-to-high-end products, and the export price range is mainly concentrated in 20 Australian dollars / liter and above, according to the current exchange rate, it is 100 yuan / liter and above, and the export value is 324 million Australian dollars (about 1.537 billion yuan), accounting for more than 80% of the entire amount.
Among them, 20-100 Australian dollars/liter (about 100-500 yuan/liter) is the core export price range, with an export value of 274 million Australian dollars (about 1.3 billion yuan), accounting for 70.4%.
The rest are dominated by products of 300 Australian dollars/liter and above (about 1,500 yuan/liter and above), with an export value of 32.76 million Australian dollars (about 155 million yuan), accounting for 8.4%, while the average price reached nearly 650 Australian dollars/liter (about 3,000 yuan/liter). From a global perspective, such high-end products are only exported to a total of 6 regions, including Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, China, and Chinese mainland accounts for 79% of them.
A boutique wine importer told WBO: "Obviously, the first wave of high-end products imported must be the brand represented by Penfolds. Judging from Australia's export prices, the probability of Penfolds 707, Penfolds Gramch and other such products is very high. ”
A person in charge of an importer in Beijing also said: "For Australian wine, although most distributors have no money in their hands, they will indeed give priority to Penfolds to make payments and stock up." ”