Iran announced that Hamas leader Ismail · Haniyeh and a bodyguard were attacked in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Iran said it was investigating the incident and the results would be released soon. As of now, no group has claimed to have contributed to the assassination.
This incident further stimulated tensions in the Middle East, and the safe-haven demand for gold boosted international gold prices. Coupled with the rising market expectations for the Federal Reserve to start an interest rate cut cycle in September, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early hours of tomorrow morning, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference, and investors will pay close attention to the impact on gold prices.
Data source: Sina Finance
Analysts interpret the impact of emergencies on gold prices
Gao Wei, manager of Zhaojin Refining Trading Department, pointed out that the recent rise in international gold prices was affected by bargain buying after the rebound, and secondly, the tension in the Middle East and the escalation of geopolitics promoted the rise of international gold prices. The attack on the leader of Hamas has killed him, and there is a risk that the geopolitical conflict will continue to escalate. In addition, although the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, if Powell signals a rate cut at the press conference, it will open the way for a rate cut in September, which may be more positive for gold prices. Song Jiangzhen, investment director of Yuebao Gold, said that the situation in the Middle East has escalated again, and international gold prices have soared. The international gold price has rebounded nearly $70 after two rounds of rallies from the recent low of $2,352 per ounce. However, the expansion of the war in the Middle East is less likely, and if Iran and other parts react more mutedly, it may mark the end of the current round of conflict. The positive for international gold prices may return to the main logic of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Hong Jie, a registered senior gold investment analyst, believes that the attack on the Hamas leader has caused risk aversion to rise, and the international gold price once soared above $2,420 per ounce, but in the short term, it is more important to pay attention to whether the risk aversion has subsided and the Federal Reserve's statement on the market's interest rate cut expectations, and the probability of further decline after the rise is still very large.
The uncertainty in United States politics cannot be ignored
Some market participants in the United States began to consider facing the "Trump 2.0" period, if Trump wins the United States presidential election in November, gold will become the best hedge asset for investors, because Trump's policies may weaken the dollar, further pushing up the international gold price.
A survey showed that among the 480 respondents, there were more people who supported gold as a safe haven in the event of Trump's re-election than those who chose the dollar, by a ratio of 2:1. More than 60% of respondents believe that the dollar will eventually weaken if the Republican candidate is re-elected. JPMorgan Chase analyst Gregory · Shearer said that international gold prices are in the best position to rise. Geopolitical tensions, the widening deficit of the United States, the diversification of global central bank reserves and hedging against high inflation have pushed international gold prices to unprecedented heights. Regardless of the outcome of the United States election, the above factors may persist, but in the case of Trump 2.0, they may be further amplified. Although the most significant increase in international gold prices during Trump's tenure occurred in 2020, international gold prices rose even more during the Bush and Carter presidency of United States. Catherine Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at Stones Group, said that at present, various factors are supporting the international gold price, and customers' portfolios are increasing their holdings of gold, and the number of bears on the dollar is increasing.
Editor|Jiao Yang Layout|Jiao Yang Vision|Zhang Zongwei
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