1. Market Quick Comment:
The index opened flat today, followed by the rapid rise of a number of over-falling sectors to lead the market upward, and the brokerage sector relayed changes to further boost market sentiment. As of the close, wind all A closed at 4211 points, up 2.93%, the turnover of the two cities increased to 908.1 billion yuan, and more than 5000 stocks closed up, with a rise and fall ratio of 3386:1750. The news was flat, and U.S. technology stocks closed down under the disturbance of the news; The State Council appoints and dismisses the relevant responsible persons of the China Securities Regulatory Commission; The National Bureau of Statistics released the official manufacturing PMI of 49.4 in July, and the manufacturing PMI fell in July under the influence of seasonal factors and market demand.
2. ETF Market Guide:
A few days ago, the index mainly closed down under the drag of heavyweight stocks, while small and medium-cap stocks are gradually repairing, the market median closed up, and the style continued to converge reflecting the overall sentiment is improving.
Fintech ETF China AMC (516100), brokerage ETF China AMC (515010): Today's secondary market closed sharply up, we believe that it is the superposition of multiple factors, first of all, the constituent stock of Jinlong shares recently sold part of the brokerage equity held in order to reduce the company's asset-liability ratio, and the capital operation has risen for several days, and other small brokerages under pressure have also received capital inflows, boosted sentiment, and gradually walked out of the rebound trend; Secondly, the non-bank financial sector, as a strong cyclical direction highly correlated with the market cycle, is often the leading indicator of the market, especially after a long and sufficient valuation cycle downturn, some forward-looking funds enter the layout cycle back; With the overall market rebounding today, the change in the expectations of the future market for further trading of funds has led to an acceleration of the upward movement of the sector; Investors continue to dig out the reasons for the significant activity of the sector and trade the expectation of "restructuring".
From the perspective of investment, it is also the low point of the industry cycle when the cyclical sector is facing difficulties, and the valuation is compressed to a very cost-effective position. Fintech ETF ChinaAMC (516100) mainly invests in listed companies that provide information services for the financial industry, and some companies are also engaged in financial business, so the performance is highly correlated with the A-share market, showing higher elasticity, and the valuation of the information technology sector is also near the historical extreme, and it performs better today.
Science and Technology 100 ETF China AMC (588800), Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF (588000): Today's secondary market performance is also relatively leading, on the one hand, in line with the characteristics of the market's over-falling rebound, more importantly, policy level changes, yesterday the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting, proposed to cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries, not only to strongly and effectively support the development of gazelle enterprises, unicorn enterprises, but also to strengthen industry self-discipline, to prevent "involution" vicious competition. We can see that the policy will raise the positioning of scientific and technological innovation to a new height, unicorn enterprises do not need to say much, gazelle enterprises are entrepreneurs across the valley of death, with scientific and technological innovation or business model innovation as the support of small and medium-sized enterprises into a high growth period, which is the embodiment of strengthening the main position of enterprise scientific and technological innovation, from the perspective of the industry itself, electronics and other industries are in an upward cycle, and fundamentals such as new energy have also begun to stabilize.
3. ETF Trading Insights:
With the recent recovery of sentiment (small and medium-cap stocks are good, theme trading is active, etc.), the market ushered in an outbreak today, all the way to the upside, and the overall show the characteristics of an over-falling rebound. On the one hand, short-term fluctuations are difficult to predict, and the overall valuation of the index is compressed to a relatively low level, on the other hand, the reflexivity of the market lies in the behavior of investors will change the market, with the continued downturn in the market and the continuous adjustment since May, most of the participants are pessimistic, which also means the exhaustion of short-selling power (the market sentiment cycle is also effective because of reflexivity), Therefore, at this point in time, after shrinkage, downturn, and general pessimism, it is actually easier to rebound. That's why we recently mentioned that "the moments that tend to be unbearable are mostly local relative lows."
Maintain the previous view as a whole, we are not pessimistic, valuation, sentiment are cycle changes, the current sentiment cycle has been deduced to a more pessimistic point, we may be standing in another round of pendulum more extreme position, the follow-up in the earnings improvement, policy-driven market is expected to rebound, in the short term, today's market is rapidly outbreaking, showing a certain bottom characteristics, we believe that the rebound is mainly over-falling, and there may be a phased long window under the repair of sentiment, but the probability of a rapid and substantial upward movement in the market is small, and the reversal of the trend is also facing a constant test. It is mainly to fall back and suck low.
(Data source: Wind, individual stocks are not recommended, historical data does not represent the future, fintech ETF ChinaAMC (516100), brokerage ETF ChinaAMC (515010), Kechuang 100ETF ChinaAMC (588800), Kechuang 50ETF (588000) risk level is R4 (medium and high risk), the above funds are equity funds, and their expected risks and expected returns are higher than those of mixed funds, bond funds and money market funds. The Fund is an index fund, and investors investing in the Fund are exposed to potential risks such as tracking error control not reaching the agreed target, suspension of services by index compilation institutions, suspension of trading of constituent bonds, etc., the risk of deviation between the return of the underlying index and the average return of the stock market, the risk of fluctuation of the underlying index, the risk of deviation between the return of the fund's portfolio and the return of the underlying index, the risk of change in the underlying index, the risk of discount and premium of the trading price of the secondary market of fund shares, and the risk of error in the subscription and redemption list. Refer to the risk of IOPV decision-making and IOPV calculation error, delisting risk, investor subscription and redemption failure risk, fund share redemption consideration realization risk, derivatives investment risk, etc. Index performance does not represent product performance, and secondary market price performance does not represent net value performance. This material is not intended as any legal document, the views are for reference only, all information or opinions expressed in the material do not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and our company does not make any guarantee for the final action advice on the content of the material. Under no circumstances shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any content in this material.
The STAR 100 ETF ChinaAMC and STAR 50 ETF fund assets invested in the STAR Market will face unique risks brought about by differences in investment targets, market systems and trading rules under the STAR Market mechanism, including but not limited to the risk of large fluctuations in stock prices, liquidity risk, delisting risk of companies listed on the STAR Market, etc. )
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