The trouble caused by the new national standard for two-wheeled electric vehicles can't be stopped.
The aftermath of the "electric bicycle night inspection operation" in the first half of the year is still there. This July, many places across the country entered a period of centralized rectification of electric bicycles and electric motorcycles. Part of it is to rectify the dangerous driving behavior on the road, and the most important thing is to investigate and deal with illegal modification, cracking, illegal parking and charging, which deviate from the requirements of the new national standard and have potential safety hazards.
At the same time, the new national standard, which has been officially implemented since April, has faced new problems after experiencing a controversy about "running too slow" and "speed is wasted": the official implementation of the new national standard is actually because the first five years are a transitional period, and the national standard has just been revised once every five years. The new national standard, which was already considered unreasonable, was further bombarded by authoritative figures.
Is it a farce, or is it a necessity to achieve effective regulation? How will the confusing new national standard affect the development trend of the industry and the companies in it?
01
"The new national standard plans to strengthen restrictions, and two-wheeled electric vehicles will regain their future"
Recently, a search on social platforms has revealed that news about strengthening the supervision of two-wheeled electric vehicles has emerged one after another:
In Leshan, Sichuan, the regulatory department held a full-chain rectification meeting for potential safety hazards of electric bicycles, and went to grassroots stores to check whether the electric bicycle sales stores had secretly modified and replaced accessories one by one according to the GB 17761-2018 "Safety Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycles" standard.
In Wenzhou, Zhejiang, the traffic police caught a "cracked car" with a modified speed limiting device on the side of the road, and found the shopkeeper who provided cracking and modification services and fined 20,000 yuan.
In Shenzhen, Guangdong, on July 25, the Shenzhen Municipal Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a consultation meeting on the key proposal to "standardize the management of electric bicycles", and the news released at the meeting showed that the total number of electric bicycles in Shenzhen is about 5.5 million, more than one million more than motor vehicles, and since the beginning of this year, the Shenzhen traffic police department has investigated and dealt with 1.4 million cases of electric bicycle violations, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year.
In addition, there are also news such as Nanchang's implementation of the "three-in-one" and "licensed sales" of electric bicycle registration, Nanjing's announcement of typical cases involving electric bicycles included in the list of serious violations and dishonesty, and Guangdong's announcement on the special supervision and random inspection of electric bicycle product quality in 2024. Although they are all reasonable practices that comply with relevant regulations and standards to regulate the market and use, it is not surprising that most of the comment areas will be divided into two factions: those who support that two-wheeled electric vehicles have potential safety hazards, and those who oppose that industry standards do not consider people's lives at all.
The main reason is that the restrictions of the new national standard have slowed down the speed of electric vehicles, reduced the battery life, and the carrying capacity is not as good as before, almost really turning electric bicycles into bicycles that are not as good as pedaling.
*Source: Wu Xiaobo Channel
At a time when the masses are having a headache, it is time to change the terms of the new national standard revised every five years. But before everyone raised objections, the new revised draft can be said to have given the industry another hammer: ten new rules, but all focus on strengthening flame retardant capacity, strengthening data reporting and supervision, and reducing plastic parts as much as possible - talking about safety naturally can't find fault, but this does not touch the fundamental pain point of ordinary people riding bicycles.
After this operation, consumers were indeed shocked - this is to regulate the industry, isn't this to turn two-wheeled electric vehicles into turtle cars bought for thousands of dollars? What exactly does the industry think?
In fact, after consulting the new national standard, that is, the principle of the early revision of the "Safety Technical Specifications for Electric Bicycles" (GB 17761-2018) led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, we found that all this was "planned" for a long time:
The revision of the new national standard adheres to the four principles of "ensuring the safety of consumers' lives and property", "ensuring the maximization of the common interests of all road traffic participants", "ensuring the basic travel needs of consumers" and "adhering to the non-motorized attributes of electric bicycles". The only key points are "safety" and "basic travel needs". In other words, a large part of a two-wheeled electric vehicle is to become a charged bicycle.
So what if you don't want to be subject to these restrictions? From the enterprise level, there is only the boundary between electric bicycles and electric motorcycles; The private sector chooses to quietly modify, remove the speed limit or change the battery. Each has its own difficulties, so we can't force anyone to criticize. But for these manufacturers, the new national standard is indeed "amazing", forcing the industry to change.
02
"The industry is speeding up, and leading brands will eat up most of the market"
Let's first take a look at the changes brought about by the last revision of the new national standard. The new national standard, which was officially implemented in the first half of this year, is actually the core of three kinds of two-wheeled vehicles: electric bicycles, electric light motorcycles and electric motorcycles, according to the speed problems. It is envisioned that electric bicycles are "charged bicycles" for transportation, and if you want to run far and fast, then consumers are asked to pay for a motorcycle license. As for the ban on motorcycles in some places, the new national standard will not consider this for you.
*Source: Tieling Traffic Police
It is simpler for manufacturers, after a five-year transition period, a little level of brands are actually ready to deal with the implementation of the new national standard. That is to produce different types of products and slowly transition to fill the market. For example, the new national standard requires the use of lithium batteries in disguise, and some cutting-edge brands in the field of electric vehicles, such as Nine, started to do lithium models, slightly older brands such as Yadea, Emma, etc., and it is not difficult to replace the battery supply chain. It's just that some local miscellaneous cards may not be easy to pass this level.
In the latest revisions, the new national standard adds ten more restrictions. This time, we saw how a specification can control the market in turn - these ten requirements manufacturers do a good job of anti-modification, provide digital supervision functions, upgrade safety configurations, and significantly change body materials.
On the bright side, this makes it more beneficial to monitor vehicle safety and prevent combustion risks. But it continues to weaken the functionality of electric bicycles for consumers, and it is a test for manufacturers, because to change these things, it is necessary to change production and management. In the previous upgrade of the new national standard supervision, there were many small factories that could not keep up with the rhythm. This time I will continue to increase the weight, but I am afraid that the small factories in the industry will be cleared, and the leader will be proud of the world.
*Source: Sister Zeng and the car
Two recent news stories hint at this possibility. One is that the Guangdong Provincial Market Supervision Bureau recently issued a notice on the special supervision and random inspection of electric bicycle product quality in 2024. The department found 53 substandard products, including well-known brands such as Emma, Mavericks, Yadea, and Luyuan. However, the most serious problems are almost all small factories and small brands.
*Image source network
At the same time, the State Administration for Market Regulation also issued a notice on the results of the special spot check on the quality of electric bicycle products in the first half of 2024. This announcement shows more authoritatively that the "doomsday" of small brands in the industry may be coming. According to the report, 146 batches of electric bicycles were unqualified. Among them, there are still big brands, but a large number of brands that rank low in the industry, such as Bendi, Xinlei, Jintai, Dazhou, and Junlu, are more worrying.
Why? Considering the scale effect, R&D capabilities, manufacturing capabilities, etc., the ability of leading enterprises to cope with changes in the new national standard is stronger. For example, No. 9 has focused on intelligence since its "debut", and it can naturally adapt faster in the face of intelligent supervision; Yadea and Luyuan are currently focusing on battery technology, and will not lose their core competitiveness because of the strengthening of battery supervision.
But on the other hand, small and medium-sized brands often rely solely on our leading supply chain to survive and become "assembly plants". For example, the local enterprises or OEM companies such as Huihua electric vehicles, Kelin electric vehicles, Suda electric vehicles, and Daoxin electric vehicles mentioned in the list lack moats and only survive with channel capabilities. They will not be able to keep up with the requirements of the new national standard and will obviously lose the ability to survive in the "post-new national standard era".
03
"There is still room for maneuver in the new national standard, and the focus of enterprises is to break through the situation and focus on differentiation"
So, is it that small and medium-sized enterprises are dead, and the head enterprises are completely at ease? Not necessarily. Who made this new national standard, and now the controversy continues.
Li Daokui, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice of Tsinghua University, recently bombarded the new national standard, bluntly saying that this standard does not consider the actual needs of the people at all, and called on relevant departments to reflect on and adjust the orientation. Moreover, he also called for the abolition of the ban on motorcycles, really concerned about the way consumers need to travel, and even directly named Guangzhou, where the ban on motorcycles is strict, "He produces his own motorcycles but can't see motorcycles."
In this regard, the People's Daily also recently published an article "Is it feasible to relax the policy of banning motorcycles to promote consumption?" Some regions in Jiangsu have tried to relax restrictions and seek ways for the sustainable development of the industry.
Therefore, for two-wheeled electric vehicle companies, what kind of products to do at this stage, what kind of strategy to use, in fact, is to take one step at a time, not to do things at one time, to avoid the future "boomerang". What is certain is that there are two aspects of the layout to make a difference, and it is absolutely not wrong.
On the one hand, it is to strengthen the core competitiveness. The core competitiveness can't be copied, the intelligence of No. 9 and Mavericks, and the battery technology and channel advantages of Yadea and Luyuan are all established after a long period of development. As a result, the brand route has been greatly differentiated, which can ensure that the brand's voice value and core customer base are stable enough in the market change. Of course, leading brands such as Yadea and Emma have greater advantages, while brands such as Luyuan and Xinri whose comprehensive sales are biased towards the midstream level also need to consider how to expand sales in addition to their own advantages to avoid a decline in performance.
*Source: iResearch
On the other hand, the requirements are more stringent, that is, to seek market differentiation and go to overseas markets and other areas with increments. The challenge is that, after all, two-wheeled electric vehicles are a traditional industry, and not all companies can understand globalization well. For example, Yadea entered the Southeast Asian market in 2008, Emma entered the "China-ASEAN New Energy Vehicle Production Base" in 2018, and Nine mastered the European and American markets through the acquisition of Segway. But in contrast, Luyuan, as a brand that started in the last century and now has a leading market position, is still in its infancy. Brands such as Xiaodao, which enjoy a large brand voice in China, are still far from "going abroad" in a large area.
After all, the industry has its own differences, they are all Chinese brands, and their fates will be completely different. It's like the dynamics of regulation that never tell a brand where to go next. If you want to live, you can only adapt. Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the industry has gradually transitioned from quantitative increase to qualitative increase, and the continuous improvement of regulatory requirements for production qualifications, product standards, sales management and other aspects has led to the market entering the stage of fighting brand power and multi-dimensional layout.
This is the so-called Matthew effect, the stock competition, the threshold of going overseas is destined to eliminate many brands, but when the big waves are washed away, maybe we will harvest a few world-class two-wheeler brands. If you lose your horse, you don't know if it's a blessing, and the pain and happiness of the future have to be tasted by the brands themselves. As ordinary people, you just need to insist on speaking up for your real needs.