After rocket attacks in the Israel-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend that killed at least 12 people, most of them children, Israel said it would "vowed to fight back."
On July 31, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser · Kanaani said in a statement that the blood of Hamas leader Ismail · Haniyeh "will never be shed in vain" and that his attack will strengthen the deep and unbreakable bond between Iran, Palestine and resistance groups.
Prior to that, the attack on Hamas's supreme leader, Ismail · Hania, was part of a so-called "decapitation operation" that many suspected was orchestrated by Israel.
So far, Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack.
The news of Haniyeh's death comes hours after Israel launched an airstrike on a suburb of the Lebanon capital, Beirut, in which the Israel military said a senior Shiite Allah commander, Shouk, had been killed.
The Israel military said Shuk was responsible for the rocket attack on the Golan Heights last Saturday.
There is no doubt that Allah and Hamas are in an alliance, and Israel launched two air strikes in succession, one killing Hamas's supreme leader and the other killing senior Allah commander, both of which are backed by Iran.
Israel has done a great job in the Middle East.
When did this Middle East conflict begin?
Since Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel on October 7 last year, which has resulted in thousands of deaths in Israel, Israel has swiftly launched retaliatory military strikes.
If we do not talk about the history of complex entanglements in the Middle East, then the source of this fuse, at least this time, is Hamas.
After Hamas launched a terrorist attack on Israel, Allah also showed solidarity with Hamas and attacked targets in northern Israel, and Allah said it would stop the attack only if there was a ceasefire in Gaza.
But the cause of this war in Gaza was the attack spearheaded by Hamas.
Now, the death of Hamas leader Haniyeh could make the situation in the Middle East even more chaotic, and to put it more bluntly, it is still a proxy war, with Israel on the surface and Iran behind it.
As one of the few developed countries in the Middle East, it can be said that it is difficult for Israel to survive in such a region without the characteristics of retribution.
Since Hamas launched an attack on Israel on October 7 last year, killing 1,200 people, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to eliminate the Hamas leadership completely.
Two Israel ministers posted on the social media platform X about Hania's death: "Hania's death has made the world a little better. ”
So who is this Hania who was targeted by the decapitation operation?
According to media reports, Haniah, as the supreme leader of Hamas, has been hiding in Qatar with his family for many years to live a luxurious life, which is naturally inseparable from the support of the "golden father".
Israel's retaliation began with Haniyeh's family, who killed three of his sons and four grandchildren in an Israel airstrike on the Gaza Strip in April, according to Hamas.
Haniyeh is the highest-ranking Hamas leader to be killed in the 10 months since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, and as an agent on the surface, the death of Hamas's top leader obviously does not do much to end today's war in Gaza, at least those behind it can find more reasons and excuses.
As a result, Chaniyeh's death may make indirect negotiations for a ceasefire between Qatar, Egypt and United States more difficult; A spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry also claimed that the attack on Chaniyeh would further strengthen relations between the Palestinian Resistance Front and Iran.
This time, will Iran respond by attacking Israel again? Or just like last time, spend millions of dollars on a few "fireworks"?
Nothing is yet known.
But the role of United States in this conflict is also crucial.
Just after Allah launched a rocket attack on a village in the Golan Heights on 29 July, killing 12 Israel children and adolescents, Israel vowed to launch a harsh but measured counterattack.
Israel drones launched an attack in southern Lebanon on the same day, killing two Allah fighters, and the next day they attacked 10 more targets, killing one Allah fighter.
In support of Hamas's fighting in Gaza, Lebanon's Allah party has been causing incidents on Israel's northern border since the Israeli-Kazakh conflict began on October 7 last year, with casualties on both sides.
When the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict broke out, the United States urgently mobilized an aircraft carrier battle group to the waters off Israel to intimidate Allah from taking advantage of the fire to rob, thus effectively avoiding the escalation of this conflict.
But for Israel, the retributive personality may have forced Israel to launch a beheading campaign against Hamas's top leader.
Israel has been forced to evacuate residents of a 2-kilometre stretch of the northern border because of Allah's repeated attacks, and 60,000 people have not been able to return home safely, which is the main incentive for Israel to address the Allah threat once and for all.
So will Israel really be afraid of Hamas and Allah?
Of course not.
Whether on paper or from actual combat experience, Israel can be said to be a proper "boss in the Middle East", but modern warfare is not only about the military strength of the belligerents, but also about international public opinion, especially when it comes to civilian deaths.
Hamas and Allah will certainly not be afraid of public opinion, after all, many countries in Europe and the United States have listed these two organizations as "terrorist organizations", but Israel is a proper and decent player, so in the Gaza war, Israel not only has to vow to fight back, but also take care of the international public opinion pressure of Europe and the United States.
Why do Hamas and Allah take the initiative to provoke Israel?
The answer is actually very simple, the owner gives too much.
By its very nature, war is about soldiers and weaponry, and as long as the leaders are not directly harmed and have a steady stream of financial support, then they are clearly happy to do so.
After more than half a year of fighting, Hamas is basically at the end of its crossbow in Gaza, and Allah's provocations have naturally lost their original strategic significance, and this time Allah's abnormal provocations may be related to his "golden father".
Only by stirring up the troubled waters of the Middle East can we find out the ability and determination of the United States.
For Israel itself, he also has scruples.
First of all, Israel's main purpose at the moment is not to completely eliminate Hamas or Allah, after all, as long as the agents are still there and the money is enough, the next "Hamas" can be cultivated at any time.
Israel's main purpose is to end military operations in Gaza, to release all the hostages kidnapped by Hamas, and to ensure that Hamas cannot exist as a military force in the short term.
The other side has hostages in hand, Israel itself is also daunting, and the 300,000 reserve army mobilized to deal with Hamas and Allah has also caused a big impact on Israel's economy, and in the fourth quarter of 2023, Israel's economy shrank by 5.2%, although Israel is rich, but it is precisely because of its richness that the economic cost of war is greater.
In addition, Iran's attitude also determines the situation in the Middle East today.
As long as Iran does not make a decision, negotiations are almost impossible.
In retaliation for Israel's bombing of Iran's consulate in Syria, Iran fired more than 300 missiles and suicide drones at Israel on April 13, and although the airstrike did not cause much damage, it was also the first time that Iran directly attacked Israel itself, and it was also an explanation for Iran.
And this time, Israel beheaded the supreme leader of Hamas, and it was still in Iran, which obviously has a great impact on the mountain.
Since Israel can attack the supreme leader of Hamas in Iran, it can also accurately attack the supreme leader of Iran, although this step is very risky, but Israel is not betting to create more chips for its own ceasefire negotiations.
For Iran, the reason why there has been no direct war between Israel and Iran is because the military strength of the two sides is seriously unequal.
In addition to conventional weapons differences, Iran is still some way from having a capable nuclear weapon; Israel, on the other hand, is already a de facto nuclear power and has never shied away from using nuclear weapons to defend itself.
From this point of view, a direct war with Israel will obviously threaten Iran's own interests, so the two will not directly confront, but the low-intensity shock may not stop.
United States attitude is also crucial.
United States defense minister said on July 31 that a larger war in the Middle East is not inevitable and that United States is trying to de-escalate rising regional tensions, but United States will stand firm in defending Israel if Israel are attacked.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Austin's remarks came after Israel killed Shouke, a senior commander of Allah.
Shuk was the most important aide to the Allah leader and the person responsible for killing 12 children and adolescents in Israel on Saturday.
The death of Hamas's top leader, the death of senior Allah commanders, and Israel's two major activities in the Middle East in one fell swoop will undoubtedly increase the risk of a powder keg explosion in the Middle East once again.
But for Israel, which is in the Middle East, its very existence may be a mistake.
end.
Author: Luo sir, concerned about the economy, society and everything in our world, curious about the logic behind the development of things, optimistic pessimist.