Brewing a "historic" prisoner swap? Two years ago, the plane that carried out the US-Russia prisoner swap landed in Kaliningrad

According to the flight tracking website Flightradar 24, on the morning of August 1, local time, an aircraft with the number RA-61727 used for prisoner exchanges between the United States and Russia at the end of 2022 departed from Moscow's Vnukovo Airport and landed in Kaliningrad.

According to Russia media reports on July 31 local time, in recent days, as several detained dissidents and journalists in Russia have been transferred to unknown locations from prison, speculation has increased that Russia may carry out large-scale prisoner exchanges with many Western countries in the near future.

United States media published an article on the same day saying that at least seven detained dissidents "disappeared" from their prisons this week. Another source revealed to the Russian media that Russia may be preparing to release 20~30 dissidents and journalists in the recent prisoner exchange operations with United States, Germany and other countries, and "the prisoner exchange may be carried out as soon as July 31 or August 1." According to the report, if the news is confirmed, it will be the largest prisoner exchange since the end of the Cold War.

Planespotters, a civil aviation database website, reported on July 31 that a government plane under the management of the Russian presidential office visited several areas where missing prisoners were being held before returning to Moscow, prompting speculation that some of the prisoners had been transferred to Moscow. United States Politico Europe Politico.eu reported that the Russia prison had provided only some information to lawyers and relatives about the transfer of prisoners, but did not specify the destination or reason for the transfer.

According to Russia media reports on July 30, when asked whether there was a possible prisoner exchange, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that "he will not comment on this issue."

Many people "mysteriously disappeared" from Russian prisons

Politico.eu reported on July 31 that since July 28, there have been rumors that Russia may swap prisoners with Western countries such as United States. As of the afternoon of July 31 local time, more than a dozen prisoners held in prisons across Russia have "mysteriously disappeared".

A lawyer for one of the prisoners told United States media on July 30 that the defense team had not been warned in advance about the prisoner swap, but that "everything looked very unusual." According to the lawyer, the recent transfer of multiple prisoners is not a coincidence and "looks like a well-coordinated operation". Neither United States nor Russia officials confirmed that the transfer of prisoners was related to the prisoner exchange, the report said. However, a number of senior Russian officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have said that negotiations on the exchange of prisoners are ongoing.

According to a number of media outlets, these prisoners who suddenly "disappeared" include those associated with the organization of the late Russian opposition politician Navalny and critics of Russia's "special military operation". Ilya Yashin, a well-known Russian opposition politician, Oleg Orlov, co-founder ·of the Russia human rights organization "Memorial· Sasha Skochilenko, ·and two former employees of Navalny·· team, Ksenia Fadeyeva and Lilia Chanysheva are all presentAmong the "missing" persons.

In addition, Paul Whelan, a former United States Marine who was convicted of espionage in Russia in 2020·· Vladimir Kara-Murza, a critic of the Kremlin who has dual Russian-British citizenship, and Kevin Lik, ·a dual Russian-German citizen, are also missing.

Politico.eu also pointed out that the most frequently mentioned possible candidate for the prisoner exchange, Evan Gershkovich, who was recently sentenced to 16 years in prison for ·espionage in Russia, has not reported any relevant information. But Russia media, citing sources, said that Gershkovich was also among those who planned the exchange.

According to a report by RIA Novosti on July 30, the Belarus News Agency quoted the Information Bureau of the Head of State as saying that Belarus President Lukashenko has decided to pardon Rico Krieger, a Germany citizen sentenced to ·death, after various considerations. Earlier, it was reported that the Minsk Regional Court had sentenced Krieg to death. Krieg was convicted under six articles of the Criminal Code of Belarus for committing terrorist activities, participating in mercenary organizations, cooperating with foreign intelligence services and carrying out actions against the national security of Belarus, espionage, and deliberately sabotaging communication lines, which could lead to serious consequences.

The United States media commented that Lukashenko's decision to pardon was "unexpected." Some analysts believe the move may be related to a possible recent prisoner swap, as Russia has been hoping that Germany will be able to release Vadim Krasikov, a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) ·agent in Germany, who is accused of shooting and killing former Chechen armed commander Ze·limkhan Khangoshvili in 2019 in central Berlin in 2019.

Brewing a "historic" prisoner swap?

In addition to the recent "mysterious disappearance" of many prisoners in Russia, Russian media also noted that Slovenia N1 Slovenija TV reported earlier on the 31st, citing anonymous sources, that it is expected that "in the next few hours", United States, Germany, Russia and Belarus will carry out a large-scale prisoner exchange operation. Shortly before the report, a court in Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia, sentenced a Russian couple to prison on charges of espionage, but then unexpectedly ordered their deportation.

The report also said that on the same 31st, the information of four Russia people who were detained in United States for cybercrime, money laundering, electronic goods smuggling and other crimes disappeared from the database of the United States Federal Penitentiary Service. In response to a question on the same day, the White House said United States it was committed to "bringing back United States people who are being held in Russia," but declined to go into details publicly, saying it needed to "make sure that this work is done."

The last time Russia and the United States exchanged prisoners was in December 2022, when the two sides exchanged Russia arms dealer Vi·ktor Bout, who was serving a prison sentence in the United States, for Brittney Griner, a United States women's basketball player serving a prison sentence in Russia, · Brittney Griner. Peskov said at the time that the agreement between Russia and the United States on an exchange of detainees should not be taken as a sign of improvement in bilateral relations, which "remain bad."

Previously, Russia and the United States also conducted a large-scale prisoner exchange in 2010. At that time, the two sides exchanged 10 Russian spies held in United States for 4 American spies held in Russia.

Regarding the possible large-scale prisoner swap in the near future, Politico.eu commented that any prisoner exchange, especially a collective prisoner exchange, will provide a rare opportunity for Russia to cooperate with its geopolitical enemies in the West amid the tensions triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For the Biden administration, which is facing a polarized, rollercoaster election, the prisoner swap will also be a "good news".

The report also said that considering that Russian citizens are held in prisons in many Western countries, and the process of promoting their release is sensitive and complex, the Kremlin may be reluctant to delay the prisoner exchange process until after the United States election and into the hands of former United States President Trump, who may win the election, because Trump's transaction method can be described as "bull-in-a-China-shop".

At present, speculation about the prisoner swap has not been officially confirmed. ·Eva Merkacheva, a member of the Human Rights Council of the Russian President, said on the 30th that the organization does not have any information about possible prisoner swaps, and that a collective prisoner swap of this scale "has never happened in modern Russia", but she did not rule out this possibility, saying that "everything is possible".

At the same time, Merkacheva said that it is unlikely that the prisoners will be pardoned, since not all of them have written petitions for pardons. She also called claims that prisoners were transferred to Moscow "unfounded," while stressing that Russian law prohibits the reporting of prisoners' whereabouts. Only after a prisoner has been taken to their destination or transit centre can they write to inform them of their whereabouts.

Russian media said that if the news that Russia will release 20~30 dissidents and journalists in the prisoner exchange operation is true, it will be the largest prisoner exchange since the end of the Cold War. Politico.eu also said that if speculation about the countries involved in the exchange and the number of prisoners turned true, the exchange would be an extremely rare operation in terms of geographical scope and number of prisoners.

Source: The Paper