In recent days, from the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and the executive meeting of the State Council to deploy the economic work in the second half of the year, to the intensive voices of macroeconomic departments such as the Ministry of Finance and the National Development and Reform Commission, the signal of increasing the policy of stabilizing growth has become clearer.
The executive meeting of the State Council held on July 31 made it clear that a number of incremental policy measures with strong operability, good results, and can be felt by the masses and enterprises. More substantive breakthroughs have been made in expanding domestic demand, cultivating and expanding emerging industries and future industries, and promoting high-level opening-up. Rely on solid policy measures and reform actions to release more positive signals.
According to the analysis of the first financial network, the tone, direction and specific arrangements of economic work in the second half of the year are becoming clearer and clearer. The Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China reaffirmed its unswerving commitment to the goals and tasks of economic and social development for the whole year, emphasizing the need to optimize and strengthen macroeconomic policies and intensify macroeconomic regulation and control, once again releasing a clear signal of strengthening the policy of stabilizing growth. In the second half of the year, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and industrial policy will continue to work hard and be more powerful in the direction of promoting the economic rebound.
There is still plenty of room for countercyclical policy adjustment
The Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China stressed the need to strengthen the sustained upward trend of the economy, effectively protect and improve people's livelihood, and unswervingly complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.
At the beginning of this year, the annual economic growth target was set at "about 5%". GDP grew by 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, considering that the economic growth rate in the second quarter fell and the base in the second half of the year increased compared with the second quarter, the pressure on stable growth in the second half of the year may further increase.
From the perspective of leading indicators, the manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 31 was 49.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and it was below the line of prosperity and withering for three consecutive months, and the contradiction of insufficient demand was highlighted.
Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a series of press conferences on the theme of "promoting high-quality development" held by the State Council Information Office on August 1 that the economic trend in the second half of the year should be viewed comprehensively and dialectically. On the one hand, the adverse effects of changes in the external environment have increased, the effective domestic demand is insufficient, the economic operation has been differentiated, there are still many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and there are pains in the transformation of old and new kinetic energy. On the other hand, positive factors and favorable conditions in economic operation are constantly accumulating.
Zhao Chenxin stressed that from the perspective of macro combination policies, "there is still enough room for counter-cyclical policy adjustment". Major measures such as the "two-fold" (major national strategies and key areas) and the "two new" (large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods) deployed by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council are accelerating, and the construction of projects such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, investment in the central budget, local government special bonds, and additional issuance of treasury bonds in 2023 are accelerating and accelerating the formation of physical workload.
At present, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a list of the first two batches of "double" construction projects this year, mainly focusing on accelerating the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, promoting regional coordinated development, improving the security and security capacity of food and energy resources, promoting high-quality population development, and comprehensively promoting the construction of a beautiful China.
In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments have recently arranged about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in work, including directly arranging about 150 billion yuan to local governments to support local implementation of consumer goods trade-in, so that the policy "real money" can reach consumers more quickly and conveniently, and better meet the needs of residents for consumption upgrades.
Study the introduction of incremental policies
The National Standing Committee pointed out that it is necessary to optimize and strengthen macroeconomic policies and increase macroeconomic regulation and control, not only to pay close attention to the implementation and speed up the progress of the policies that have been introduced, but also to study and launch a number of incremental policy measures that are highly operable, effective and accessible to the masses and enterprises.
In terms of fiscal policy, Lin Zechang, director of the General Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on July 31 that in the next step, the Ministry of Finance will increase policy implementation efforts to promote the sustained recovery of the economy. Focus on four aspects of specific work: first, better play the amplification effect of government investment; the second is to promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in; Third, we will continue to strengthen basic livelihood protection; Fourth, strengthen the management of fiscal revenue and expenditure.
It is worth mentioning that in terms of improving the resilience and security level of the industrial chain and supply chain, the Ministry of Finance will focus on supporting the solution of the "bottleneck" problem encountered in the industrial chain and supply chain, combining and implementing a variety of policy tools, supporting the development of key industrial chains such as integrated circuits, industrial machine tools, medical equipment, instrumentation, industrial software, and basic software, and supporting the creation of independent and controllable industrial and supply chains.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told Yicai that incremental fiscal policies may also be introduced in the second half of the year, among them, it is not excluded that on the basis of this year's planned issuance of 1 trillion yuan, the possibility of issuing a certain scale of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the second half of the year is also possible, and it is also possible to issue a certain scale of special refinancing bonds to replace local government hidden debts. All these measures will help boost domestic demand and effectively resolve local debt risks. On the whole, considering that the current debt ratio of the central government is relatively low, there is ample room for fiscal policy in the second half of the year.
In terms of monetary policy, as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has recently lowered its policy interest rate and guided the decline in the loan prime rate (LPR), market institutions are generally optimistic that the PBOC will take the opportunity to cut the RRR in the second half of the year, or continue to promote the market-oriented reform of interest rates to reduce the financing cost of the real economy.
Wu Chaoming, vice president of the Finance and Credit Research Institute, told Yicai that in order to cooperate with the financial force and ease the constraints of bank interest margins and capital constraints, it is expected that the probability of RRR cuts in the second half of the year will still not be low; At the same time, effective demand is insufficient, real interest rates remain high, and the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates, and it is expected that the window for domestic interest rate cuts may not be closed; In terms of structural tools, we will accelerate the implementation of existing policies such as scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and re-lending of affordable housing, and reserve a number of incremental re-lending tools that benefit people's livelihood and promote consumption.
Reforms in key areas have been accelerated
The industry believes that in view of the complex and changeable external environment and the contradictions and risks of domestic economic operation, it is necessary to put reform in a more prominent position, seek development through reform, break down institutional obstacles, and cultivate new development momentum. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) made comprehensive arrangements for further deepening reforms, and in the second half of the year, in addition to the comprehensive efforts of the policy of stabilizing growth, structural reforms in several key areas are also expected to take a step forward.
The National Standing Committee stressed the need to further stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence, and rely on practical policy measures and reform actions to release more positive signals. The previous Politburo meeting also proposed to use reform as a driving force to promote stable growth, adjust the structure, and prevent risks.
Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Finance Office in charge of daily work, also mentioned a few days ago that the next step is to promote the sustained economic recovery and achieve more balanced, inclusive and inclusive development. It is necessary to solidly promote reforms that are within the reach of the masses of the people and enterprises.
On July 31, the State Council issued the "Five-Year Action Plan for the In-depth Implementation of the People-oriented New Urbanization Strategy", which is driven by institutional reform to fully release the huge domestic demand potential of the new urbanization. The action plan proposes four major actions, 19 key tasks and relevant policy measures, including a new round of urbanization of agricultural transfer population, action to improve the level of urbanization in potential areas, action to cultivate modern metropolitan areas, urban renewal and action to improve safety and resilience. The goal is to increase the urbanization rate of the permanent population to nearly 70% after five years of efforts.
In terms of fiscal and taxation reform, Vice Minister of Finance Wang Dongwei revealed on July 31 that in terms of expanding local tax sources, the Ministry of Finance will consider moving the consumption tax collection link backward and steadily demarcating the localities, taking into account factors such as the division of central and local revenues, tax collection and management capabilities, and implementing them steadily in different items and steps, expanding local revenue sources and guiding local governments to improve the consumption environment. With regard to appropriately expanding local taxation powers, the Ministry of Finance will, on the basis of the central government's unified legislation and the right to levy taxes, explore and study ways to give local governments greater autonomy in determining the elements of the local tax system and implementing them. The Ministry of Finance is also considering standardizing the management of non-tax revenues, appropriately lowering some of the non-tax revenue management authority, and allowing local governments to manage them differently in light of actual conditions.
In terms of the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission recently said that according to the national strategic needs, it will further clarify the key investment areas and directions, and strengthen the investment layout in key core technology research and forward-looking strategic industries. Improve the institutional mechanism for strengthening the party's leadership in improving corporate governance, improve the quality of board of directors, deepen the reform of the three systems, accelerate the construction of modern new state-owned enterprises, and build more world-class enterprises. Adhere to the unity of "being able to live" and "being manageable", continuously improve the efficiency of supervision and service, and protect and develop state-owned assets.
In addition, various measures to promote the development and growth of the private economy will also be further effective. Zhao Chenxin said that the next step will be to create a good environment and provide more opportunities for the development of the private economy. In terms of breaking down barriers to entry, we will promote the fair opening of competitive infrastructure fields to business entities, improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in the construction of major national projects, and create an open, transparent and convenient market access environment. In terms of strengthening the protection of the rule of law, a law on the promotion of the private economy has been enacted. Improve the legal and regulatory system for long-term supervision of enterprise-related fees and the settlement of arrears of enterprise accounts. Strengthen the enforcement and judicial protection of property rights, and establish an efficient comprehensive management system for intellectual property rights.
(This article is from Yicai)