Since its founding in 1948, Israel has not gone without war for a year or a month.
As soon as the smoke of the Israeli-Kazakh war dissipated, Israel directed his troops at the threatening Lebanon Allah party in the north.
The trigger for Israel's military mobilization was:
On July 27, 2024, a rocket attack on a football stadium in the Israel-occupied Golan Heights killed 12 children and adolescents and injured 44.
This is the deadliest attack in Israel-controlled territory since the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict.
Israel accused the Lebanon Allah party of carrying out the attack and vowed to retaliate, while the Allah party flatly denied it.
Attacking civilians is not an honorable thing, and with Hamas attacking Israel music festival and being swept away by the Israel plough court, the Allah party certainly does not dare to take the blame.
However, Israel, regardless of whether Allah recognizes it or not, launched a targeted air strike on Beirut on 30 July.
Killed Allah's No. 2 figure Fouad · Shuk.
The Israeli army believes that Shouk commanded and planned the rocket attacks on the towns of the Syria Golan Heights under Israel occupation on 27 July.
Shuck is also credited with orchestrating the terrorist attack at Beirut airport on October 23, 1983, which killed 307 people, including 220 United States Marines on peacekeeping missions.
Allah leader Nasrallah then spoke: Israel Any attack on the Lebanon capital would trigger a Allah attack on Tel Aviv.
The warning added fuel to the fire and further heightened tensions between the two sides.
First, Israel is highly likely to launch a large-scale armed offensive against the Lebanon Allah Party.
Here's why:
1. Historical factors:
Since its founding, Israel has pursued the three major strategies of "revenge if there is revenge", "let the enemy leader go first", and "even if it is far away, it must be punished".
This tough military stance has made Israel often inclined to pre-emptive military action in the face of threats.
And so far, Israel has become stronger and stronger, has firmly established itself in the Middle East, and has gradually turned from defense to offense, and has taken an offensive posture in the Middle East.
2. Geopolitical considerations.
Israel's greatest enemy in the Middle East today is the arc of resistance created by Iran.
The most immediate threat is Gaza in the south and Lebanon Allah parties in the north.
Hamas has been crippled by Israel and is no longer capable of forming a systematic attack on Israel.
The Lebanon Allah Party, on the other hand, is located in the southern part of Lebanon, has a territory, a population, and transportation channels to receive a steady stream of aid from Iran and other countries.
The armed forces are strong and are known as "the most powerful guerrilla force in the world".
The threat to Israel is much greater than that of Hamas and has been one of Israel's most important security threats.
Weakening or eliminating Allah's military capabilities would not only improve Israel's national security, but also counter Iran's influence in the region.
3. Israel is militarily ready.
Israel had been fighting in Gaza for almost a year, had completed its military mobilization, and its combat experience in the Gaza Strip could be used in military operations against Lebanon.
Israel believes that by attacking the Lebanon Allah party that has not yet been fully integrated with a protracted army, it will be possible to gain a greater strategic advantage.
4. The international situation is in favor of Israel.
Russia is mired in the Russian-Ukrainian war and is unable to support its strategic ally Iran, but instead wants to ask Iran for help.
When Israel attacks, it can first continue to hold United States and get assistance.
Second, the moment is when the arc of Iran's resistance is at its weakest.
Third, the Russia-Ukraine war can share international pressure.
5. Domestic political pressure.
The Government of Israel is under intense pressure from within the country to provide a strong response to attacks on Israel civilians.
Especially after the trauma of the Hamas attacks, the Israel population has become more sensitive to security issues.
Second, the scale and form of Israel's military operations against Allah.
Should Israel launch a large-scale military operation against Allah, its tactical actions could include:
1. Large-scale air strikes: intensive bombardment of Allah's military installations, command centers and rocket launch sites.
2, Ground invasion: Send ground troops into southern Lebanon to destroy Allah's underground tunnel network and military infrastructure.
3. Special operation: Targeted elimination of senior leaders of Allah.
4, blockade: cut off Allah's supply lines, especially by sea.
Third, the impact and possible risks of Israel's attack on Allah.
1. Large-scale military operations could provoke instability throughout the Middle East and even lead to broader conflicts.
The world's major powers and regional powers all have their own interests and strategies in the Middle East.
Recently, Turkey's Erdogan has repeatedly announced that "the Turkish army wants to enter Israel"
2. Israel's actions in Gaza have led to strong opposition from the international community, and Israel will be under even greater pressure if it attacks the Lebanon Allah Party again.
3. The war will deal a serious blow to the economies of Israel and Lebanon and affect the economic stability of the entire region.
4, large-scale war can lead to serious civilian casualties and refugee crisis, and the Lebanese refugees are very likely to have an impact on Europe, Syria refugees and Ukraine refugees have already made Europe sad, plus Lebanon refugees, Europe is difficult to bear.
5. If the war is fought between each other, or if Allah is not weakened on a large scale, there will be a backlash effect, which may increase the confidence of anti-Israel countries in the Middle East.
In short, the possibility of a large-scale military operation against the Lebanon Allah Party Israel does exist, but such a decision will face many risks and challenges.
The Israel government needs to weigh the potential benefits of military action against the potential regional instability and international pressures it brings.