Since July, since the beginning of the month to achieve a short "good start", the price of building materials in southwest China began to slump, important meeting expectations disappointed, the replacement of the old and new national standards over-hype, so that the market panic continues to increase. Recently, Xiaobian is also paying close attention to the production trends of construction steel enterprises in southwest China, and has conducted a survey on the production of 25 construction steel enterprises, the details are as follows:
Social inventory in southwest China: In July, the social inventory in southwest China was 655,300 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, the social inventory in Sichuan was 360,700 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous month, the social inventory in Chongqing was 145,300 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous month, the social inventory in Yunnan was 66,400 tons, a decrease of 9,300 tons from the previous month, and the social inventory in Guizhou was 82,900 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous month. Judging from the statistics, the decline in the social treasury situation in the southwest region this month is limited, in order to clear the warehouse inventory as soon as possible, the market quotation has been continuously lowered, and even the brand that has been sealed in the warehouse for a long time has begun to be sold in the market, and the price competition of the internal circulation brand in the southwest region still exists, and the old standard is under the influence of the off-season effect, and the market is slow to destock.
Inventory of steel mills in southwest China: In July, the inventory of steel mills in southwest China was 1.1136 million tons, a decrease of 96,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of steel mills in Sichuan was 285,900 tons, a decrease of 90,200 tons from the previous month, the inventory of steel mills in Chongqing was 101,000 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous month, the inventory of steel mills in Yunnan was 660,100 tons, an increase of 20,900 tons from the previous month, and the inventory of steel mills in Guizhou was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 20,200 tons from the previous month. Judging from the statistical data, the Sichuan region of the warehouse to the warehouse efforts to go to the warehouse, Yunnan area of the warehouse still has a large inventory, now the southwest region of the steel mill direct model, and the four major regions, Sichuan steel digestion compared with other regions more than 2 times, a day can digest about 3-50,000 tons of building materials, in the four regions play a very important role, if the southwest region of the old national standard inventory is fully digested, it will take at least a month, plus the new national standard steel bar out, The procurement demand of the old standard must have decreased, and the digestion cycle will be extended accordingly, especially in Yunnan, where there is still such a high volume of factory warehouses, which still has great pressure on the market.
Output of steel mills in southwest China: The output of steel mills in southwest China was 3.7462 million tons in July, a decrease of 12,400 tons from the previous month. Among them, the output of steel mills in Sichuan was 1,710,400 tons, an increase of 15,800 tons from the previous month, the output of steel mills in Chongqing was 563,800 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons from the previous month, the output of steel mills in Yunnan was 1,138,600 tons, a decrease of 23,100 tons from the previous month, and the output of steel mills in Guizhou was 333,400 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous month.
Judging from the statistics, under the enforcement of the new national standard, steel mills in southwest China will open the maintenance and production reduction mode in August, and there are currently 5 steel mills that have issued maintenance and production reduction plans, of which Sichuan has reduced production more and Yunnan has reduced production less, and it is initially expected that a total of 199,000 tons of construction steel output will be affected next month. During the replacement of the old and new national standards, the forced production of steel mills is also had to do it, the rapid decline in the price of the old standard steel bar, so that the loss of steel mills in the southwest region has intensified, the loss of steel per ton is about 120-300 yuan, and the production cost of the new national standard steel bar in August will also rise by about 15-20 yuan, if the production reduction is not organized, the loss of the steel mill will continue to increase, but the current production reduction is not enough to make the price of building materials in the southwest region to achieve a further rebound, in August Yunnan still has a large output, It is expected that after entering August, regional steel mills will continue to increase the implementation of production reduction plans, consolidate market confidence, and then achieve an ultra-low rebound.
Spot prices in southwest China: The average spot price in southwest China in July was 3,334 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan/ton from the previous month. Among them, the average spot price in Chengdu was 3,342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 164 yuan/ton from the previous month; The average spot price in Chongqing was 3,342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous month; The average spot price in Kunming was 3,309 yuan/ton, a decrease of 107 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the spot price in Guiyang was 3,344 yuan/ton, 67 yuan/ton less than the previous month.
This month, the spot price in southwest China fell endlessly, and the actual transaction price in the market at the end of the month exceeded 3,100 yuan/ton, hitting the lowest price in the market in three years. Previously, steel mills in Yunnan had issued a notice letter of no longer falling prices in July, but the market was still relatively panicked about the consumption of the old national standard, and the relevant units did not clarify whether the transition period for the replacement of the old and new national standards could be delayed, and suppliers could not rashly take the unknown risks. Beginning on August 1, the southwest steel mills basically realized the full coverage of the new national standard steel bar, the output of the new national standard steel bar, the settlement price of building materials (rebar straight) on the basis of the old national standard steel bar increased by 30 yuan / ton, which increased the production cost of steel mills, and the spot selling price was also raised accordingly, and the price of building materials in the southwest region is expected to rebound slightly in mid to late August.
On the whole, steel mills in southwest China will start maintenance and production reduction plans in August, and the supply will leave a corresponding window period for the digestion of old standard steel bars, which will help continue to clear the old standard resource inventory; In terms of cost, the production of new standard steel bars will move the cost of tons of steel up, and steel mills will actively raise prices to support the price of building materials; In terms of demand, August is about to enter the beginning of autumn, extreme weather such as high temperature and heavy rain has decreased, and the current weak demand will also improve. Therefore, construction steel prices in southwest China are expected to bottom out in August. (Lange Steel, Liu Linyu)