The yen officially announced an interest rate hike, but the purpose was not to backstab United States, this time we in China really have to be careful. On July 31, the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates further at its monetary policy meeting, the first rate hike since Japan ended the era of negative interest rates in March this year.
Many people interpret this move as a backstab to United States, because United States is now about to cut interest rates, but Japan has suddenly raised interest rates again. At the same time, Japan will raise interest rates, so United States conglomerates will not be able to use the yen to arbitrage. At the same time, Buffett and other bigwigs borrowed a lot of yen in Japan to invest in the Japan stock market, and now is the time for them to repay the yen, the more the yen falls, the more they earn, on the contrary, the yen rises, and the United States bigwigs are unwilling.
But do you really think that the yen is rising to stab United States in the back?
There are several reasons for the yen's rise. The first core reason is that Japan cannot bear it on its own. The yen has fallen sharply, causing Japan's import costs to continue to rise. Since the beginning of this year, Japan has rarely seen a sharp rise in prices, especially food and energy.
Some people say that the yen has fallen, which is good for Japan's exports, and this is true. However, for Japan, the yen falling too hard will cause their export costs to rise sharply. As a result, Japan has been in a trade deficit for the past two years, with a cumulative deficit of more than $200 billion. In order to solve the domestic contradictions in Japan, they could only let the yen rise.
However, you may not have thought about the question of what is the attitude of United States towards the appreciation of the yen? When the yen first considered the exchange rate, the United States was quite angry. United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen directly criticized Japan for interfering in the exchange rate at the time. They also put the yen on the list of exchange rate manipulations.
So since the United States was unwilling to let the yen appreciate, why did the United States change its attitude this time? The yen has risen sharply, and the United States has not expressed opposition so far. You must know that United States economic, political, and military infiltration of Japan is quite terrifying. If United States does not nod its head, Japan will not dare to assert itself.
Japan's Shinzo Abe was suddenly assassinated. Recently, there are still so many leaders in the world who have accidents for no reason. Everyone must be very scared. Therefore Japan if there is no agreement with the United States, they will not dare to let the yen rise casually.
Then since the United States agrees to the appreciation of the yen, this is incomprehensible. If a stronger yen would harm United States' interests, why should United States agree?
This must take into account the third variable, and that is our China. Although the appreciation of the yen has an impact on United States, if it has a greater impact on China, it will be beneficial to United States.
Some time ago, the United States has been using the yen to launch an attack on the yuan. This time the yen is still playing the role of United States' weapon against us. The appreciation of the yen will lead to the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar in disguise. The yen is one of the components of the dollar index, and when the yen rises, the dollar falls. Then the renminbi will appreciate in disguise.
The renminbi has also followed a round of sharp gains recently. But is this sharp rise in the renminbi a good thing or a bad thing? Before this round of sharp rise, the yuan had just fallen sharply, and the offshore yuan fell directly below 7.3. The big fall is followed by a big rise, and this situation is quite a lot of pressure on friends who do trade.
If you do trade, you know that if the exchange rate is unstable, the impact on business is very large. You can eat up your profits at any time. At the same time, the rise of the renminbi will directly affect our exports.
The rise in the exchange rate means that the cost of others purchasing us is rising, and the purchase volume will definitely fall. This has a big impact on us now. Our economy is walking on two legs, the first is domestic demand, and the second is exports. The core of domestic demand is real estate. Now real estate is not good, and it can't be made up by relying on tourism and catering.
Domestic demand is quite weak now, and at this time it is supported by exports. Although our export data looks rising, it is actually under a lot of pressure. Our PMI in July has fallen, and at the same time our export prices have been falling. Now the United States is pulling a bunch of allies to wage a trade war against us and increase our tariffs. It can be said that China's foreign trade is now under great pressure.
In the past few months, we have been sacrificing price for total volume. If there is a continuous appreciation of the renminbi at this time, then this blow is not small. So this time the yen rate hike, we must be careful, this matter is really not simple.