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Text: Yanyan
Edited by Yeon-yeon
——【· Preface ·】——》
In 1916, Yuan Shikai's deathbed prophecy was like thunder, leaving a deep mark on the turbulent Chinese political scene.
He predicted the possibility of three people ruling China, and the identities of these three men are still the subject of numerous speculations and debates. As the leader of the Beiyang warlords, Yuan Shikai's insight and foresight never disappointed.
So at the last moment of his life, what kind of future did this weather-beaten hero see? Who are those three people, and why did their names leave such a deep impression in Yuan Shikai's heart?
Empire Twilight: Yuan Shikai's final gamble
In 1915, the Republic of China was in turmoil. After Yuan Shikai became the president, his ambitions became more and more inflated. He believed that only the restoration of the imperial system could stabilize the situation, so he embarked on a thrilling political gamble.
This former revolutionary hero has now become the gravedigger of the republican system. Yuan Shikai's decision not only deviated from the original intention of the Xinhai Revolution, but also aroused strong opposition at home and abroad, and laid a huge hidden danger for his future political career.
Yuan Shikai underestimated the people's insistence on the idea of republicanism. When he was about to ascend the throne and claim the throne, there was an uproar throughout the country. Cai Yi, Liang Qichao and others launched a war to protect the country in Yunnan, and the southwestern provinces responded one after another.
There was also a split within the Beiyang warlords, with many choosing to turn their backs on Yuan Shikai. For a time, the soon-to-be-enthroned "emperor" found that he had betrayed his relatives.
The outbreak of the Protectorate War not only shook the foundation of Yuan Shikai's rule, but also exposed his mistakes in political judgment and put him in an unprecedented predicament.
From the Temple of Heaven to the abolition of the emperor's title, Yuan Shikai completed the fall from the peak of power to the political abyss in just half a year. The defeat was fatal for him.
On June 6, 1916, Yuan Shikai fell critically ill in his Beijing apartment. In the last moments of his life, the once powerful politician seemed to realize his mistake, but it was too late.
Yuan's defeat not only marked the end of his personal political career, but also heralded a new era in China's political arena.
Three-legged: Yuan Shikai's deathbed prophecy
On the occasion of his death, Yuan Shikai called his eldest son Yuan Keding to the bed. The father seems to want to show his son a way to protect the interests of the family at the end of his life.
He solemnly said three names: Li Yuanhong, Duan Qirui and Xu Shichang. At this moment, Yuan Shikai seems to be a political prophet, trying to draw a clear trajectory for the turbulent situation.
Yuan Shikai believes that these three are most likely to rule China in the future. He instructed Yuan Ke to have more contacts with these three people in order to preserve the wealth of the Yuan family. This prophecy reflects Yuan Shikai's judgment of the political situation, and also exposes the limitations of his thinking.
He still seems to be stuck in the old-fashioned politics mindset, believing that power change is nothing more than a game between a few political elites. However, Yuan Shikai ignored the emerging social forces and the awakening of the people, which was the root cause of the ultimate inaccuracy of his predictions.
However, the development of history is often unexpected. Although these three politicians favored by Yuan Shikai have all held state power to varying degrees, they have not been able to rule China for a long time in the end.
Their political careers were short-lived, with ups and downs during the turbulent Republican years. The fate of these three people also reflects the complexity and unpredictability of that era, and reflects the profound changes that Chinese society is undergoing.
Li Yuanhong: A "passive" president who is pushed by the times
Li Yuanhong's political career is legendary. From a soldier who was reluctant to participate in politics, to being elected as the leader of the Wuchang Uprising, to becoming the president of the Republic of China, every step seemed to be pushed forward by the tide of the times.
Li Yuanhong's experience vividly interprets the old saying "the times create heroes", and also reflects the twists and turns of personal fate in that turbulent era.
When the Wuchang Uprising broke out in 1911, Li Yuanhong shouted "Don't harm me", but in the end he was forcibly elected as the governor of the capital by the rebel officers and soldiers.
This beginning foreshadowed his later political career: passive, cautious, but forced to go with the flow. This ambivalence of Li Yuanhong continued to manifest itself in his later political career and became an important factor influencing his decision-making.
The day after Yuan Shikai's death, Li Yuanhong naturally took over the post of president. However, this position did not bring him real power. He soon fell into a "government dispute" with Premier Duan Qirui.
The two men disagreed over whether or not to enter World War I, a dispute that eventually led to political turmoil. Li Yuanhong's advocacy of neutrality, while Duan Qirui's preference for war, was not only a foreign policy debate, but also a major choice concerning the country's future direction.
In 1917, the farce of Zhang Xun's restoration put Li Yuanhong in an embarrassing situation. He had to flee to the Japan Legation, a move that seriously damaged his political reputation.
Although he became president again in 1922, he was by this time reduced to a puppet of the warlords. In the end, Li Yuanhong was physically and mentally exhausted in the political struggle and withdrew from politics. His political career is like a mirror, reflecting the turbulence and complexity of the political situation in the early years of the Republic of China.
Duan Qirui: The "tiger general" and politician of the Beiyang warlords
Duan Qirui was an important figure among the Beiyang warlords and was known as the "Tiger of the Beiyang". His political career was full of dramatic turns, from Yuan Shikai's right-hand man to opposing Yuan Shikai's claim to emperor, and then becoming the new leader of the Beiyang system, Duan Qirui's every step deeply affected the political situation in the early years of the Republic of China.
His experience shows the way of a military politician to survive in troubled times, and also reflects the complexity of power change in that era.
Duan Qirui dissuaded Yuan Shikai from becoming emperor five times, showing his political wisdom and keen judgment of the current situation. When Yuan Shikai insisted on his opinion, Duan Qirui chose to resign, a decision that laid the foundation for his later political career.
Duan Qirui's move not only preserved his political reputation, but also created conditions for him to replace Yuan Shikai as the leader of the Beiyang system in the future.
After Yuan Shikai's death, Duan Qirui quickly rose to become the new leader of the Beiyang system. Although he does not directly serve as president, as prime minister, he actually controls the power of the country.
Duan Qirui was good at using power and scheming, manipulating the situation through the "Anfu Congress", and once became the de facto ruler of the Beiyang government. He was politically skilled, but he also made many enemies, laying the groundwork for future defeat.
However, the pinnacle of power is often also the beginning of danger. In 1920, the two factions of Zhifeng joined forces to oppose Duan Qirui, and the Zhiwan War broke out. Although Duan Qirui had the upper hand at first, he was ultimately defeated by a pincer.
After losing the important support of the army, Duan Qirui's political life also came to an end. The rise and fall of Duan Qirui vividly illustrates the political reality of "power coming out of the barrel of a gun", and also reflects the cruelty of the change of power during the period of warlord secession.
Xu Shichang: Yuan Shikai's "think tank" and short presidential career
Xu Shichang is an old friend and right-hand man of Yuan Shikai, and is regarded as the representative of the "Wenchen" of the Beiyang system. His political career showed how a civilian bureaucrat survived in turbulent times.
Xu Shichang's experience not only reflects the changing role of traditional literati in modern politics, but also reflects the complexity of the political ecology of that era.
In his early years, Xu Shichang worked with Yuan Shikai and became an important member of the Beiyang Department. However, on the issue of Yuan Shikai's claim to be emperor, Xu Shichang showed his political wisdom.
He made his opposition clear and chose to resign when Yuan Shikai insisted on his opinion. This decision not only preserved his political reputation, but also paved the way for his future career. Xu Shichang's choice shows his political sensitivity as a traditional literati, and also reflects his wisdom of survival in troubled times.
In 1918, when Duan Qirui and Feng Guozhang were at loggerheads, Xu Shichang was elected president. However, this position did not bring him real power.
Xu Shichang tried to reconcile the contradictions, but his efforts were of little success in the situation of warlord secession. As a civilian president, Xu Shichang lacked a strong military backing, which also determined his embarrassing situation in warlord politics.
In 1922, in the context of the Zhibong War, Xu Shichang was forced to step down. This marked the end of his political career. After that, Xu Shichang chose to retire and focus on literary creation.
It is worth mentioning that during the Anti-Japanese War, Xu Shichang refused the pull of the Japan, showing the national integrity of an old politician. Xu Shichang's choice in his later years not only reflected his personal character, but also set an example for intellectuals in turbulent times.
——[· Conclusion ·] ——"
The political fate of Li Yuanhong, Duan Qirui, and Xu Shichang reflects the various contradictions and struggles of that turbulent era.
However, the development of history is far more complicated than anyone's predictions. All three politicians held high positions, but none of them were able to truly control China's destiny.
Yuan Shikai's prediction was inaccurate, not only because he underestimated the power of the times, but also because he failed to see that what really determines China's future is the tremendous energy hidden in the broad masses of the people.
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