"Follow" me, more exciting sneak peeks
The political scene in the European Union has been a buzz lately. Not long ago, Ursula · von der Leyen was re-elected president of the European Commission with 401 votes in favor. As soon as this news came out, the European political arena suddenly boiled. Everyone is speculating about what the "Iron Lady" will do next.
Heaven does not fulfill people's wishes. Von der Leyen's series of policies toward China since taking office, especially the "China Investment Review Program" that sounds like a big head, have caused an uproar in Europe. No, the Federation of Germany Industry, the European branch of the International Semiconductor Industry Association, and the largest corporate lobby group in Europe, the European Association of Business Organizations, have all jumped out to oppose it.
The reasoning of these business giants is simple: not only do they not ensure economic security, but they will seriously affect corporate decision-making and investment flows, and weaken the competitiveness of European companies in the global market. To put it bluntly, it is "don't make trouble, let's make good money".
More interestingly, of the EU's 27 member states, only Lithuania, which has relatively little economic ties with China, expressed "full support." It's like in a class, only the student with the worst academic performance supports raising the passing line, and the rest of the students are shaking their heads. Economic powerhouses like Germany, Sweden and Netherlands are skeptical of the plan.
Just as von der Leyen's plans are in trouble, an unexpected figure suddenly appears in Beijing. That's right, it's Italy Prime Minister Meloni, who once withdrew from the Belt and Road Initiative. She became the first national leader to visit China after the EU elections.
Meloni wasn't here to do the sightseeing. She not only met with high-level Chinese officials, but also signed a three-year action plan. In particular, the prime minister stressed that the agreement with China includes "implementing past agreements" and exploring new ways of cooperation with China, covering various fields such as industry, education and environmental protection. Doesn't it sound like the "Belt and Road" has changed its vest?
Some analysts believe that this three-year cooperation plan is, to some extent, an alternative to the "Belt and Road" initiative. In this way, Italy can maintain good relations with China while avoiding being labelled "pro-China". I have to say, this trick is really high!
Meloni's move undoubtedly sends an important signal to the rest of the European Union: in the context of a weak global economy, it is wise to seize every opportunity to strengthen cooperation with China. After all, China, as the world's largest single consumer market, has performed well in economic growth, attracting many EU companies to sharpen their heads and want to enter.
Speaking of which, an interesting phenomenon has to be mentioned. In recent years, politicians in many European countries have always taken a tough stance on China in public, but privately they are actively seeking economic cooperation with China. This approach of "one set on stage, one set off stage" reminds people of a common saying: "Say no to the mouth, but the body is very honest." "
At a time when European countries are making overtures to China, an even greater threat is quietly brewing on the other side of the Atlantic. The United States election has been ignited, with incumbent President Joe Biden announcing that he will not be re-elected, while Vice President Harris's public approval rating has not risen effectively. Former President Donald Trump, on the other hand, has grown in popularity.
What would happen if Trump did return to the White House? Europeans are probably already starting to lose sleep. You know, Trump left a deep "wound" on Europeans during his tenure. Not only did he wage a trade war against China, but he also imposed tariffs on European goods. The move plunged the European economy into turmoil, with manufacturing, agriculture and other sectors hit hard.
How should EU countries respond to this situation? Will it continue to follow in the footsteps of United States, or will it seek a new economic partner? I am afraid that this question will keep European leaders awake at night.
Faced with this dilemma, EU countries seem to have their own options. As we said earlier, with the exception of Lithuania, the vast majority of EU countries do not support von der Leyen's "China Investment Review Program". The logic behind this move is actually simple: in the current global economic downturn, EU countries urgently need a stable and large economic partner to balance the economic risks that may come from the United States.
And China, as the world's second largest economy, has undoubtedly become an ideal choice for the European Union. In recent years, the bilateral trade volume between China and the EU has been rising, and China has become one of the EU's important trading partners. According to Eurostat, China surpassed United States to become the EU's largest trading partner for the first time in 2022, with bilateral trade reaching 856 billion euros. Behind this figure is the desire of countless European companies to the Chinese market.
It's not that simple. To a certain extent, the differences between EU countries on China policy reflect the contradictions and predicaments within the EU. On the one hand, they need China's huge market to drive economic growth; On the other hand, they worry that over-reliance on China will affect their economic security. This ambivalence is vividly expressed in the EU's China policy.
Take von der Leyen's China Investment Review Program, which was originally designed to protect the EU's critical technology and infrastructure from foreign control. However, this plan has met with strong opposition within the EU. Why? Because European companies are well aware that in today's globalized world, it is unrealistic and harmful to want to completely cut off economic ties with China.
Interestingly, while the EU was arguing endlessly, Italy Prime Minister Meloni quietly visited China. This strong woman, who has withdrawn from the "Belt and Road" initiative, can be described as a full return from this visit to China. Not only did she sign a three-year action plan with the Chinese side, but she also stressed the need to "implement past agreements" and explore new ways of cooperation.
Meloni's move can be said to be a lesson for other EU countries. She told everyone with practical actions: politics is politics, and economics is economy. Even if there are differences in political positions, they should not affect economic cooperation between the two countries. This pragmatic attitude is exactly what the EU countries need today.
Looking back at history, it is not difficult for us to find that European countries have a long history of economic cooperation with China. Back in 1975, the European Economic Community (the predecessor of the European Union) established diplomatic relations with China. Since then, the economic and trade exchanges between the two sides have become increasingly close. Especially after China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, China-EU economic and trade relations have entered a period of rapid development.
In recent years, as China's economic power has grown, some European countries have become uneasy about China's rise. They fear that China could threaten Europe's economic position and technological superiority. To a certain extent, this concern has affected the EU's China policy.
But the reality is that European companies are far more dependent on the Chinese market than politicians think. Taking Germany as the largest economy in Europe, Germany's automotive, machinery and chemical industries all have close cooperation with China. In 2022, China became Germany's largest trading partner for the seventh consecutive year. In such a situation, if restrictions are rashly adopted, it is Europe itself that will be hurt.
Because of this, we see that in addition to Lithuania, the vast majority of EU countries, including major European economies such as Germany, France, and Italy, have reservations about von der Leyen's "China Investment Review Program". They are well aware that maintaining good economic and trade relations with China is essential for the stability of the European economy in the current context of increased global economic uncertainty.
More importantly, as the United States election approaches, the uncertainty facing European countries has increased further. If Trump returns to the White House, he could once again wield the tariff stick, dealing a major blow to the European economy. In this context, the EU needs a stable and large economic partner to balance the risks. China, on the other hand, is undoubtedly the best choice.
In fact, as early as when Trump was first elected president of United States, European countries were aware of the risks of over-reliance on United States. In 2017, then-Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel said: "Europeans must truly take control of their own destiny." This sentence still has important practical significance in today's view.
In today's globalized world, no country is immune. Rather than being hesitant about the EU's China policy, it should adopt a pragmatic attitude like Italy Prime Minister Meloni and actively seek economic cooperation with China while maintaining political independence. After all, in this uncertain world, economic cooperation is the best way to safeguard national interests.
Let's look at this from a higher perspective. In an increasingly complex world, no country is immune. The predicament faced by the EU countries is, to some extent, a reflection of the predicament of the whole world. How to safeguard its own interests and at the same time coexist peacefully with other countries to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results is a question that every country needs to think about.
The wisest choice for the EU at present is to maintain strategic autonomy and find a balance in the great power game. Maintaining good economic and trade relations with China is not only conducive to the development of the European economy, but also conducive to maintaining global economic stability. The EU should also continue to strengthen its internal solidarity and improve its competitiveness, so that it can remain invincible in future international competition.
As the ancient Greece philosopher Aristotle said, "Politics is the art of possibility." "In these times of challenges and opportunities, EU countries need wisdom and courage instead of resting on their laurels. Only by having the courage to change can we seize the opportunity and win the future in this rapidly changing world.