There is a big guy named Ericsson in the United States, who is a professor of strategy at the China Maritime Institute of the United States Naval War College.
This person is not simple; he has always supported "Taiwan independence" in the past, and he even gave Taiwan the idea that if it really fights, it will engage in street warfare among the whole people.
But recently he published a paper that is interesting.
Professor Ericsson said this time that if Chinese mainland decides to use force to resolve the Taiwan issue, it may be a big trouble for United States.
He said that no matter what United States do, he would have to walk around without food, and he would have to suffer heavy losses not only militarily, politically, but also economically.
If this happens, the hegemonic system that the United States has painstakingly built for decades may fall apart within a few days.
Ericsson's words are ruthless enough, which means that United States had better not get involved in the Taiwan Strait, so as not to lose his wife and lose his troops.
Why?
Professor Ericsson made a thorough analysis, saying that the balance of power between the two sides of the strait has changed.
The mainland's military strength is constantly increasing, and the economic development is also very fast, and the United States wants to intervene, and the risk is terrifying.
If United States chooses to intervene directly, it will have to go head-to-head with the mainland, and it is difficult to say who wins and who loses in this kind of war, but it will certainly be a lose-lose situation.
Even if United States wins, it will be a big loss of vitality and global leadership.
On the other hand, if the United States chooses to stand by and watch, it will become a soft persimmon in the eyes of its allies, and its credibility will be discredited, and if it wants to call on the younger brothers to follow in the future, I am afraid that no one will buy it.
And Taiwan there will definitely be disappointed, feeling that United States is not enough friends, and how to solve the problem Taiwan the future, the weight of United States words will be light.
Professor Ericsson also said that even if the United States wants to solve it through diplomatic means, it will have to weigh it.
The mainland's current diplomatic skills are also quite powerful, and if it does not take advantage of the negotiating table, it will eventually have to return to the original point, and the United States will have to face the same problem.
Therefore, this matter is really a dilemma for the United States.
Professor Ericsson's words were like a wake-up call to United States, reminding them not to take Taiwan issue as child's play.
After all, for the Chinese, the Taiwan issue is a matter of top priority, which concerns national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and brooks no compromise.
However, Professor Ericsson's point of view is also a bit confusing.
Hasn't he always supported "Taiwan independence" before? Why has it changed again now?
Seeing that the mainland's development momentum is so fierce, it is estimated that he also realized that United States it is difficult to change something on his own.
Therefore, his suggestion is that United States better not wade into this troubled water, so as not to displease both ends.
The Taiwan issue is a core interest for China, but for United States, it is a complicated mathematical problem, which is not easy to solve, and the slightest carelessness may trigger a chain reaction with far-reaching impact.
In any case, the peaceful development of the two sides of the strait is the result that everyone hopes to see the most; after all, "peace is precious," and if a peaceful solution can be solved, who wants to use a knife or a gun?