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The penetration rate of personal care appliances in mainland China is still low - according to Euromonitor data, the penetration rate of shavers in China is 16 units/100 households, which is still nearly double that of United States (31 units/100 households) and Japan (34 units/100 households).
The hair dryer is 11 units/100 households, far lower than United States (247 units/100 households) and Japan (74 units/100 households), and the gap is still very huge.
With the gradual increase in market penetration, it is expected that the shaver market size will reach more than 26 billion yuan in 2020, with a CAGR of more than 15%, and the hair dryer market size will grow to 2.4 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2017 to 2020.
At present, the market concentration of razors and hair dryer CR3 is 90% and 80% respectively, of which Feike Electric's razor and hair dryer market share is the first, with a market share of 39.5% and 36.6% respectively in 2016
Okay, the whole industry and its sub-sectors have been clearly understood, and next, let's move on to the valuation link.
Valuation Method 1:
In the first step, we can make a category revenue forecast for different product categories.
Ignoring the impact of the launch of its new category on its performance, it focuses on the historical sales, unit price and growth rate of razors and hair dryers to forecast future revenues
Among them, the compound growth rate of shaver sales and unit price was 5.60% and 6.18% respectively, and the compound growth rate of hair dryer sales and unit price was 11.73% and 3.95%
According to the forecast, from 2018 to 2020, the total revenue of shavers and hair dryers will be about 3.526 billion yuan, 3.943 billion yuan, and 4.376 billion yuan.
At the same time, due to the two core products of razors and hair dryers, their proportion of the overall revenue is relatively stable, both at about 83%.
Therefore, it can be roughly predicted that its total revenue in 2018, 2019, and 2020 will be about 4.248 billion yuan, 4.751 billion yuan, and 5.273 billion yuan.
From 2015 to 2017, they were 18.03%, 18.23% and 21.68%, respectively, and the three-year compound growth rate was 6.34% (which may be related to the increase in the amount of assets in the same period)
Its self-built base has been consolidated, so we estimate that its net profit margin will also maintain such a compound growth rate, which will be 23.05%, 24.52%, and 26.07% from 2018 to 2020, respectively.
Therefore, the corresponding forecast net profit from 2018 to 2020 is 979 million yuan, 1.165 billion yuan, and 1.375 billion yuan respectively.
The second step is to predict the appropriate range for the P/E ratio.
Considering that it has not been on the market for a long time and there is less historical P/E data, the "historical PE quantile method" will not be applicable - in this case, what should be done about the PE range?
We choose a compromise option and take the historical price-to-earnings ratios of comparable companies in the home appliance industry and roughly judge their reasonable valuation ranges.
The logic behind this approach is: no matter how it develops in the future, Feike is still a home appliance company first, and it is impossible to be too far behind the valuation gap of companies in the same industry
Predict the follow-up and listen to the next breakdown
It does not constitute any investment advice, the stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market