From the perspective of improving the intrinsic stability of the capital market, the nature of the 7.31 rebound,
Can the A-shares survive the big dive in the outer market?
Dear investors, I am a good word
Today is Sunday, August 4th
The topics discussed with you today are:
From the perspective of improving the intrinsic stability of the capital market, the nature of the 7.31 rebound,
Can A-shares survive the plunge in the external market?
Last week I went from A-shares for two and a half years
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 20.5%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 60%.
The ChiNext fell 54%, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board fell 58.4%.
From a valuation perspective
The Shanghai Composite Index is 12.5 times, and the ChiNext is 27 times,
The Science and Technology Innovation Board is 31 times, and the CSI 300 is 10 times
Lowest valuation in the world
as well as from the volume
It shrank to 600 billion in nearly 20 trading days
It shrank to more than 500 billion in five trading days
As well as the angle of one dollar stock, two yuan shares, and more than half of five yuan shares
Think 2800 points is the bottom
2860 and 2830 points are the two limit positions
It's a great opportunity, and it's worth seizing
Three days into the week, there was a big rebound at 7.31
First topic:
Some understanding of improving the intrinsic stability of the capital market
It was presented at an important meeting last year on July 24
Enhance investor confidence and activate the capital market
A year later at 7.30 an important meeting was presented
Boost investor confidence,
Enhance the intrinsic stability of the capital market
It looks pretty much the same
This time, however, special emphasis was placed on improving internal stability
This is after the index fell from 3164 to 2865 to 309
What does it mean to emphasize inner stability?
What I understand is that A-shares will be emphasized
2800 to 3200 points oscillating back and forth
This is in 2022, there were 2863, 2885 and then rebounded
This year it was again in this range
The highest point was 3,174 points on May 20
The lowest is 2865 points
Pinch the head and tail to run back and forth between the middle 400 points
That's what I realized from management
Intrinsically stable cabinet for investors' reference
I don't know if you agree
The emphasis is now on improving the intrinsic stability of the capital market
What are his advantages?
I think it's intrinsic to it
Policy initiatives to the bottom
First of all, the reform of the basic system is at the bottom
On February 5 of this year, Niimura 2,829 points
At that time, it fell to 2635 points
The national team entered the market strongly
from 2635 points to 3174 points, an increase of 30%
On April 12, the 1+N policy of the new nine articles was released
It corrects the great leap forward in expansion that has lasted for more than a decade
and the most stringent new rules on the size of non-reduction in history
Now the queue for new listings has become 295
From 780, the number has dropped to 295 in a year
Then, not long ago, the refinancing of restricted shares was stopped
stopped the refinancing of securities,
The most severe punishment for counterfeiting has also been introduced
and legal measures
300,000 and 600,000 became 5 million and 10 million fines
The sentence of three years became 10 years
Therefore, this series of basic system reforms and measures lay the foundation
Second, macroeconomic policies will continue to exert force
Also strengthened the 2800 point bottom
It was emphasized in the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee
Macroeconomic policies should be sustained and strengthened
He stressed the need to unswervingly complete the annual economic growth target
On July 31, the executive meeting of the State Council emphasized again
It is necessary to further stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence
Rely on solid policy initiatives and reform actions
to unleash more positive messages
It is necessary to launch a batch in a timely manner when the conditions are ripe
Tangible reforms
To make a batch of strong operability and good effect
Incremental policy initiatives that are accessible to the masses and businesses
This improvement should be effective
Such a policy should be felt by the common people
We expect a gradual rollout in the future
Thirdly, in terms of personnel
It also provides favorable conditions for strengthening internal stability
This big rally of 7.31
It was the State Council that removed Fang from his post
This personnel move is in line with the will of the people and the will of the people
It means that in the past, under the guise of internationalization,
A great leap forward in the expansion of the banner of market-oriented innovation
What is the international version, restricted stock refinancing, refinancing securities
High-frequency quantitative trading, etc., will be completely terminated
There can be no resurrection
After that, he was the deputy general manager of the Shanghai Stock Exchange
The former director of the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission was investigated and punished
These initiatives are reformed from within
Fourth, some market conditions for intrinsic stability are already in place
It's all the data, the valuations, the declines that I listed last week
The number of binary stocks, broken shares, and trading volume
This strengthens the support at the 2800-point bottom
At the same time, it also shows that there is no stability yet
Great efforts need to be made to strengthen the internal stability of the capital market
This worries many people about whether it will fall to 2635 points
Will it fall to 2500 points
and so on
This is the statement of the important meeting at the highest level on July 30
Second topic:
What is the significance of the 7.31 rally?
I think at least the bottom is tamped
Judging by the day's gains
I haven't seen it in a long time
The Science and Technology Innovation Board rose 4.7%, and the CSI 500 rose 3.98%,
CSI 1000 rose 3.97%, CSI 2000 rose 3.5%,
The GEM rose 3.64%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.37%,
The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 2.47%, and the CSI 50 rose 2.3%,
The CSI 300 rose 2.16%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.06%.
SSE 50 up 1.72%
This increase has not been seen in a long time
It can be said to be a medium-long white candlestick
The ratio of individual stocks is 5050:255, and the price limit is 114:1
It's also a disparity that I haven't seen for a long time
Looking at the trading volume, it is 908.4 billion
This is an increase of 304.7 billion from the previous day
The increase reached 50.5%, so it is significantly larger
According to statistics, the net inflow of main funds that day was 23.3 billion
Continuously shipped northbound funds bought a net of 19.6 billion
The national team once again entered the field to protect the plate
There is also the strength of the breakout of the moving average
On the day of the rebound at 2863 points at the end of April 2022
Only five antennas were broken
In October 2022, it fell to 2865 points and rebounded
It was also only broken through five antennas
A rebound of 2,635 points in February this year
On the same day, it also broke through the five antennas
And this time it broke through the five antennas and ten antennas in one fell swoop
Then the 20-day line of 2940 points was encountered
And closed at 2938 points, closing at the key level of 2930 points
So this time the rebound was stronger than the previous three
Thursday's choppy consolidation still closed at 2930 points
Friday was affected by the overnight plunge in U.S. stocks
Retracement of 2900 points
But this week
We look at the nine consecutive weeks of black candlesticks from the candlestick
Although one or two small white candlesticks are added
However, the unilateral decline appeared as the first yang of the weekly line
All 11 indices were the first positive after a nine-week decline
It can be said that this is the beginning of the rally that has risen from the bottom
So the nature of the 7.31 rally
I think it may have formed another important bottom
Some people jokingly call it the bottom of Fang Moumou
I think this is a little more figurative, and it makes sense
In fact, this rise in the market
Sometimes it's unreasonable
Everyone's inner desire is to vent their emotions
The rise is formed
The third topic:
The big dive in the peripheral stock market, can A-shares hold up?
We see two days in a row
There has been a rampant momentum in the peripheral markets
On August 1, the Dow fell 1.21%, the S&P fell 1.37%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.3%
On August 2, the Dow fell 1.51%, the S&P fell 1.84%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.43%
Japanese stocks fell 5.81%
Intel fell 26% on August 2
The dollar index fell to 103.2 points, also down more than 1%
The yen appreciated sharply from 162 yuan to 146 yuan
The renminbi also appreciated sharply to 7.16 yuan
Why is it falling so much?
One factor was that United States' July non-farm payrolls data fell short of expectations
Unemployment rate at 4.3%
Another factor is that the United States plays a financial station
There was a discord among the allies
United Kingdom Canada preemptively cut interest rates,
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates in the opposite direction
This is the time limit for the Fed to announce that it will not cut interest rates for the time being
It may have to be postponed until September
All at once disrupted the Fed's rhythm
The United States and its allies are no longer in a huddle
The monoliths are in unison, but they go their own way
As a result, there was a rampant collapse of U.S. stocks and a sharp fall in the U.S. dollar index
Then people are worried
In this case, can our A-shares still hold up?
My opinion is that there will be some shock
It's because of global integration
Everyone is seeing how each market is performing
U.S. stocks fell, A-shares fell, Japanese stocks fell,
European stocks also fell, as did Hong Kong stocks
Although the decline of A-shares was small, it also fell
But I think it's mostly in the peripheral market
And our A-shares have their inherent stability
So the force of the impact will not be very large
From a forward-looking point of view
On the contrary, it is good for A-shares
Why?
We see the renminbi depreciating to 7.26, 7.28, and 7.30 at the highest
Now suddenly appreciated to 7.14,
Appreciation of 1000 basis points
This pair of assets for RMB, including A-shares
It's a positive, it's a boost
This is the reason for this
Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley thinks
The world's smart money is selling off US stocks
It was the largest sale since August 2023
And hedge funds have been selling US stocks for three weeks in a row
Then it moved to the Asia-Pacific market, especially the Chinese stock market
So we see the day of 7.31
Northbound funds unilaterally bought a large amount of 19.6 billion
The Fed postponed a rate cut this time
It is already too late to reject a shift in monetary policy
So it is even more determined to cut interest rates in September
Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley argues:
If interest rates start to cut in September
At least three times during the year
Instead of 0.25% each time, it will drop by 0.5%
This team is extremely favorable to our A-share market
A week ago, our central bank lowered the lending rate
Then the six major rows take the lead,
The major banks have also lowered their deposit rates
If the United States cuts interest rates again
It has formed a greater positive for our A-shares
Then our projected trend for this year is N-shaped
The big rally from 7.31 has begun
Although there will be a bit of a lag in the disruption of the peripheral market
But upward, that's for sure
So the turning point was at the turn of the second and third quarters
China's stock market will be imminent to break the involution, from defense to offense
There may be one chance in the face of adversity
That is, the eight-character policy that I have always emphasized:
Sowing in winter, giving birth in spring, resting in summer, and robbing in autumn
At the junction of the third and fourth quarters, the autumn rush
It's an upward stroke of N
for our market
If there is a sinking below 2900 points next week
Investors with light positions
This is a rare buying opportunity
Then 2900 points have to hold on, and they have to be coiled
If you are coiled
I can lay a solid foundation of 2930 points
Then take the twenty antenna at 2937 points
Finally, take the five-week moving average
Return to the bullish market
That's a great hope
So next week is mainly to consolidate in this area
At the same time, the volume cannot shrink
In the past three days, 908.4 billion, 786.2 billion, 726.3 billion
It must hold on to more than 700 billion
2930 points can be stabilized
Then the future trend is more promising
Where is the hope?
It is now the semi-annual line of 3017 points and the annual line of 3031 points
There is only a 14-point gap between the two moving averages
If the half-year line crosses the annual line to achieve a golden cross
There is a siphoning effect on the whole market
The space for the market to come out is out
There may be a process
But the direction we have to see in advance
So I think 3000 points is still going to go
3050 points still to go
You may even be able to see 3080 points
Now we are in the darkness before the dawn
There is a glimmer of light, but there are many difficulties
It's one such process
Of course why not like before
Can a long white candlestick like 7.31 come out and be very optimistic?
Because there are still three problems in the market that have not been solved
One is that quantitative trading restrictions are not enough
The second is to delist the shares at the par value of one dollar
Didn't give one like the United States stock market
90-day grace period opportunity,
Or an opportunity to reorganize, or an opportunity to buyback
Or an opportunity to shrink shares
In addition, some listed companies that violated the rules before delisting
To be compensated and indemnified to investors
The third long-term funding is still in lip service
It has not been put into practice
Let the people feel it, and you can see it
That is, the huge amount of equalization funds that I have been looking forward to time and time again.
Now it's up to the national team alone
He played the big four ETFs and the big four bank stocks, which played a limited role
Equality Fund, if launched
In public opinion, momentum
It has a shocking effect on 220 million shareholders and 700 million people
It is a deterrent to the bears
So I still hope
After the passage of the third review of the Financial Stability Act
In the third and fourth quarters, you can see the opportunity to level the fund
Then it will be the majority of investors
A big opportunity to be able to turn over to varying degrees
So I have a stock market on China
Don't be too pessimistic, there is still a chance
To have faith, let's take it one step at a time
Well, the above comments and analysis
Just one word for your reference
Thank you all for listening and watching