Every time I talk about the future development of automobiles, my friends are always arguing.
Some people believe that the oil car is a timeless classic, while others believe that the tram is the king of the future.
Who's right and who's wrong?
I consulted industry insiders, and they said that it was very simple, just look at these 3 indicators...
First of all, it is to look at the rise of automobiles and what are the core elements
After all, the substitution of means of transportation has been staged in the past, and this is not the first time.
For example, in 1900, when United States was still the world of horse-drawn carriages, when automobiles were just germinating, there were fewer than 10,000 in the United States.
Of the 10,000 cars, fuel vehicles account for only 22%...
Of the remaining shares, steam cars and electric cars are half the world.
At that time, no one was optimistic about oil trucks.
Because of this kind of model, not only does it have to be started by a crank, but the noise and pollution are also very serious.
The key stability is also average, and the cruising range is similar to that of the tram, or even slightly inferior!
But why is it bucking the trend? In a word, it is "cost-effective".
After all, a tram costs thousands of dollars, and charging is very expensive.
Don't dismiss it, think that the electricity bill, no matter how expensive it is, is very limited.
But in those days, it wasn't like that...
Because of the scarcity of power facilities, the money for one kilowatt-hour of electricity can add more than 20 liters of oil.
Many workers can't charge 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity for an hour's salary....
In such a situation, economical and practical fuel vehicles, so it was quickly developed.
Directly destroyed the market for "steam cars" and "trams"!
Looking at it now, it's actually repeating this story.
Because in terms of cost performance, oil trucks can't catch up, according to the "reincarnation of history" - trams replace oil cars, it's only a matter of time!
Secondly, look at the investment direction of car companies
To put it bluntly, car companies will always be ahead of consumers in their insight into the future.
They are very aware of what the future trends are – until then, they adjust their strategies to match the trends.
What are the current plans of the global car companies?
Take the Volkswagen Group, for example, they plan to invest 180 billion euros (about 1.3 trillion yuan) in the five-year plan from 2025 to 2029 for battery production and expanding business in North America.
Of this, 68% will be invested in electrification and digitalization.
Ford is even more determined, even though last year's "electrification strategy" lost $4.7 billion, and in the second quarter of this year, it lost another $1 billion.
But electrification has not yet been abandoned!
It's just that the pure electric strategy will be slowed down, and the main models will be developed into plug-in hybrid versions, fully embracing plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Not to mention Toyota, Honda, these are not to mention.
Toyota, for example, has set up a dedicated BEV plant to manufacture electric vehicles. And plans to launch the next generation of battery electric vehicles in 2026, equipped with advanced batteries, with a range of up to 1000 km...
Toyota also plans to sell 3.5 million electric vehicles annually by 2030, of which 1.7 million will come from BEV plants.
Honda is even more demanding that battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles account for 100% of its vehicle sales by 2040!
In this case, isn't the answer very clear?
Finally, look at what the car of the future should look like
To put it bluntly, in the long run, cars must move towards "autonomous driving" and "intelligent interconnection".
The reason is that a high degree of intelligent driving technology can reduce the risk and error of human operation.
In addition, the comfort of smart cars is extremely high, you can rest, read, and work in the car, and let the car get you to your destination safely.
Not to mention smart connectivity, the ideal car should be a "mobile office" or "home". Within this second space, we can accomplish everything we want to accomplish.
But can pure fuel vehicles do it? Can't do it!
Although some high-end fuel vehicles are equipped with ADAS, to achieve L4 or L5 autonomous driving, the structure of fuel vehicles is simply not good!
Because autonomous driving requires complex electronic architectures, highly integrated sensor systems, and powerful computing power – all of which have nothing to do with "mechanical energy".
Therefore, not to mention the future, at present, we will find that the "intelligent driving technology" of pure fuel vehicles has lagged behind a lot.
In addition, electric vehicles have integrated a large number of communication modules and computing units since the beginning of their design.
It enables seamless connectivity between vehicles and vehicles (V2V), vehicles and infrastructure (V2I), and vehicles and homes (V2H).
Pure fuel vehicles are still dominated by machinery, and machinery controls everything - this logic cannot be changed, and they are destined to be unrelated to these technologies.
Therefore, the oil car will definitely not be the mainstream car of the future.
All in all, the automotive industry is changing, just like the revolution a hundred years ago, and we are standing at a new historical turning point.
In this regard, whether everyone agrees with it or not, whether the future is a gas car or a tram - the answer is already clear!