The assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh has made the already unoptimistic situation in the Middle East even more tense. After the incident, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei made it clear that Iran would take revenge and discuss retaliation with allies in the Arc of Resistance. These allies include militias in Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Allah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza, plus Iran itself, and Israel will face strong retaliation from the five major armed forces.
Chania
In fact, Israel recently assassinated not only Haniyeh, but also five senior Hamas officials and one senior commander of the Lebanon Allah Party. Further on, the Israeli army launched a retaliatory air strike on Houthi-controlled areas. So it can be expected that the scale of Iran and its allies' retaliation against Israel this time may be larger than ever.
According to sources quoted by the Observer, there are two main retaliation plans for Iran and its allies. The first is for all members to attack at the same time, and the second is to strike in turn. The first option is undoubtedly more effective in the damage it causes, and it is also more indicative of the unity of the arc of resistance. Iran has sent a letter to the United Nations condemning Israel's terrorist attacks that violate sovereignty. U.S. and Israeli officials predict that Iran will formally retaliate as early as Monday.
Khamenei
In the face of possible retaliation from Iran, both the United States and Israel are highly nervous. Biden and Netanyahu have already had a phone call, and according to the US media, Biden accused Iran of escalating the situation in the call, and also asked the Israeli side to reach an agreement in the next one to two weeks. But at the same time, Biden also said he would do everything he could to help Israel defend itself against attacks. It has been learned that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has ordered a large number of additional naval and air forces to be sent to the Middle East, including aircraft carrier battle groups and destroyers capable of undertaking regional air defense tasks. In addition, the United States has deployed an additional F-22 squadron to the Middle East and strengthened the air defense capabilities of US military bases.
It is now widely believed that although Iran's retaliation may be more violent than before, it will not lead to a full-scale loss of control and a larger regional war. On the Middle East issue, a tacit understanding has been formed between United States and Iran, and both sides believe that Israel is so crazy to create an incident in order to force the United States and Iran to end.
F-22
In the eyes of the Israel far-right forces, there is now a situation where there is no way to retreat, and although the Israeli army has an advantage in overall strength, the armed forces of the Lebanon Allah Party, the Houthis, and Hamas, which have taken an extremely tough attitude towards Israel, have the ability to inflict heavy losses on the Israel. If you want to solve the surrounding "threat" once and for all, Israel alone cannot do it, and only by pulling United States into the water and borrowing the hands of the US military can achieve this goal.
At present, neither the United States nor Iran has the intention of escalating the situation or even ending it personally. For Iran, it is even more important to solve domestic economic development and other issues, even if it is to target Israel, it can be achieved by supporting the Lebanon Allah Party and other armed forces, and it is not possible to end up in person. For United States, the current strategic focus is on the Asia-Pacific region. United States strategic circles generally believe that United States' focus on the Middle East was a wrong strategic choice and lost the best window to contain and suppress China. Therefore, the United States, which is strategically shrinking, is reluctant to return to the Middle East.
Biden with Netanyahu
In response to the assassination of Haniyeh and the sharp escalation of the situation in the Middle East, China has also made its attitude clear a few days ago. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stressed that China condemns the assassination and is deeply concerned that this incident may lead to further escalation of the regional situation. In fact, as long as there is no ceasefire in Gaza, the spillover effects will persist for a long time, and such emergencies are not surprising. The key to whether the situation will continue to escalate in the future will depend on whether Netanyahu can hold back the radical forces at home. If Israel chooses to calm down, as it did in April, after Iran retaliates, there will be no major escalation. But if Israel continues to launch a counterattack, the entire Middle East situation risks spiraling out of control.