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According to the financial community on August 3, recently, economist Hong Hao said at the China Chief Economist Forum that there is still a chance for A-shares to wave this year, around the autumn. Expert Hong's views have aroused great concern and heated discussions among netizens.
Some netizens said: Li Daxiao has not guessed correctly for decades, and has been guessing until retirement, which is more difficult to guess than the weather forecast.
I would say more critically, the fact that economists have not been right for decades, but he is still an economist, and this phenomenon is interesting.
Some netizens said: Qi Qin: About winter.
Compared with some economists, singer Qi Qin's prediction may be more reliable.
There are also netizens who commented: Anyone can be called an economist, I will also guess, anyway, the probability is 50%, and no one will remember when I guess wrong, if I guess correctly, I can be like Ren Zeping, saying that I predicted the arrival of the bull market.
Economist Hong Hao paid attention to the rising trend of maritime container shipping prices and cryptocurrency prices, as well as signs of recovery in China's real estate sales, and pointed out that the improvement of international trade liquidity may be driving the bottom of China's economic cycle to stabilize and gradually repair, so he predicts that there will be a wave of A-shares this year, around the autumn.
As Hong Hao said, in macroeconomic analysis, liquidity is seen as the lubricant of economic activity. When liquidity increases, market participants have more money to trade, which not only stimulates consumption and investment, but also enhances the stability of financial markets. The rise in the price of maritime consolidation and the price of cryptocurrencies usually reflects the increase in global trade activity and the rise in investors' risk appetite, which may contain positive signals of improved global liquidity. In the cryptocurrency space, this phenomenon is particularly noticeable, as the cryptocurrency market tends to be highly sensitive to changes in liquidity, and its price movements can serve as a bellwether to gauge market sentiment and liquidity conditions.
Moreover, the Chinese government's series of real estate policy adjustments, such as easing purchase restrictions and lowering mortgage interest rates, have shown positive results, and real estate sales are beginning to show signs of rebounding. The timely adjustment of this policy not only helps to stabilize the real estate market, but also releases potential consumer demand and provides impetus for the overall economic recovery. With the gradual recovery of the real estate market, it will have a positive impact on economic growth and further consolidate the trend of stabilization at the bottom of the economy.
Based on the above analysis, investment strategies in the current market environment are particularly important for investors. China's banking sector, state-owned enterprises, commodities and a range of liquidity-sensitive assets all show good investment prospects. The banking sector is likely to see growth as it benefits from the resumption of economic activity; The state-owned enterprise sector may benefit from the opportunities brought about by policy support and structural adjustment; Commodity markets are likely to be driven by increased global trade activity; Liquidity-sensitive assets, such as some technology stocks and growth stocks, may also perform well due to improved liquidity.
And, as a rule of thumb, autumn tends to be a more active time for markets. Therefore, for investors who are interested in investing in the Chinese market, grasping this time window, combined with macroeconomic trends and policy guidance, may help to capture more favorable investment opportunities.