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【Abstract】Huatai Securities: United States' July non-farm payrolls data was partially disturbed by one-time factors; Quam Securities: Short-term avoidance of overseas stock markets; Debang Securities: The allocation is still optimistic about "patient assets".
1. Macroeconomics
1.1. Huatai Securities: United States' July non-farm payrolls data was partially disturbed by one-off factors
Huatai Securities Yi Xun said that the new non-farm employment in July fell significantly, mainly dragged down by employment in the service sector, and employment in the government sector also weakened. Considering that the July non-farm payrolls data was partially disturbed by one-off factors, exaggerating the weakening of the job market, and the Fed has more room to cut interest rates, over time, the United States economy is still expected to achieve a soft landing after the Fed's policy adjustment. The Fed has repeatedly stressed that it cannot rely on a single data for decision-making. Therefore, in the base case, we still believe that the Fed will cut rates by 25bp for the first time in September, and 2-3 times for the year.
1.2. NORD Fund: The real economy shows strong resilience
Guo Jiting of Nord Fund believes that considering the slowdown in the real estate industry, the negative impact of the subsequent real estate industry on the overall economy may gradually weaken. At present, the monetary policy remains relatively stable and loose, industrial production is stable as a whole, and the real economy has shown strong resilience. Although the PMI data shows that the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has dropped slightly compared with the previous period, it is expected that the production and operation of the manufacturing industry is expected to return to the expansion range with the continuous efforts of relevant policies such as optimizing the business environment and smoothing financing channels.
1.3. Yinhua Fund: Optimistic about industrial metals compared to precious metals
Zhang Teng of Yinhua Fund pointed out that the Federal Reserve is about to enter a real cycle of interest rate cuts. In fact, as early as November last year, the capital market began to trade the Fed's interest rate cut in advance. The main instruments traded for the Fed's interest rate cuts are precious metals. It can also be seen from the first quarterly report of the fund that the position of equity funds in the non-ferrous sector has increased most significantly. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations at the beginning of the year also brought the non-ferrous sector to a high point in April this year. The fundamental certainty of the future of precious metals is not as high, and industrial metals are more bullish in comparison.
2. Equity market
2.1. Quam Securities: Short-term avoidance of overseas stock market correction risks
Jin Han of Quam Securities said that the rise in Japan's stock market since 2013 is closely related to the Bank of Japan's implementation of a more aggressive QQE policy and sparing no effort to greatly ease and expand its balance sheet. A sharp tightening of Japan's monetary policy will have an impact on the Japan stock market, and risks may also be transmitted to the European and American markets. In the short term, it is recommended to avoid the risk of a correction in overseas stock markets. In the long run, with the Fed's interest rate cut expectations approaching and the pressure of rapid yen depreciation easing, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy adjustment will usher in greater flexibility, and if Japan learns from the past and carefully assesses the timing of future interest rate hikes, then with the sharp adjustment of the Japan stock market, the Japan stock market may re-usher in allocation opportunities.
2.2. Winwin Fund: Chinese assets are expected to benefit from global capital reallocation
Gao Nan of Yongying Fund said that although the economic recovery momentum slowed down in the second quarter, the bottom characteristics of the economy have emerged. At the valuation level, it is expected that domestic macro liquidity will continue to remain loose in the second half of the year, and the central bank still has room to cut interest rates and reserve requirements. At the same time, the policy encourages medium and long-term funds such as industrial capital, insurance funds and social security funds to enter the market, which will inject new vitality into A-shares. In addition, the Fed is widely expected to start a rate cut cycle in September, and Chinese assets are expected to benefit from the global reallocation of funds.
2.3. Debang Securities: Allocation is still optimistic about "patient assets"
Wu Kaida of Debang Securities pointed out that in the short and medium term, the consumption style is more over-falling, and generally when the over-fall rises, the rebound section of the over-falling sector in the early stage is more elastic. In the long run, there may be two types of conditions for the reversal of high dividend excess inversion: one is that the long-term treasury bond interest rate will no longer fall, and the other is that the dividend yield of the high-dividend sector will be further increased. Long-term style switching needs to be patient and wait for more signals on the right, and high dividend directions such as "patient assets" may still be relatively dominant.
3. Fixed income
3.1. Guosheng Securities: Interest rates may enter a new round of downward period
Guosheng Securities' fixed income team said that the bond market continued to strengthen after the Politburo meeting, and it is recommended to continue to increase the duration and leverage, and long-term bonds still have some downside. The Politburo meeting paid more attention to domestic demand, and also released a more positive signal in terms of stable growth, real estate, chemical debt, etc. have new expressions, but the specific details still need to be further observed, the probability of short-term substantial stimulus is limited, and at the same time emphasize that the focus on boosting consumption to expand domestic demand determines the basic upward elasticity or limited. It is expected that interest rates may enter a new downward period.
3.2. Tianfeng Securities: Long-term bond interest rates may be stepped down
Sun Binbin of Tianfeng Securities said that in the context of maintaining the consistency of macro policy orientation and adhering to the supportive stance of monetary policy, the central bank will not deviate from the fundamentals and tighten liquidity, and unilaterally change the direction of market interest rates. From the perspective of taking into account the optimal state of internal and external equilibrium and multiple objectives, the central bank may hope to maintain the state of expectation guidance, try to control the rhythm, amplitude and slope of the downside, and under the guidance of monetary policy and the promotion of capital and fundamentals, the interest rate of long-term bonds may fall in a stepwise manner.
3.3. Huatai Securities: The asset shortage will continue for a long time
The fixed income team of Huatai Securities pointed out that the essence of the asset shortage is that the insufficient demand for physical financing has led to insufficient asset supply, and the expansion of the balance sheet of non-bank and other financial systems has contributed to the fire. The shortage of assets in the bond market will continue for a long time, and in the medium term, we will pay attention to fiscal expansion and changes in the wealth management investment experience. Considering that the core contradictions of fundamentals and allocation pressure have not changed, the deposit rate will be lowered after the interest rate cut, and the odds of chasing the rise will fall, but the adjustment is still an opportunity.
Fourth, industry research
4.1. Bank of Shanghai Fund: The power sector may usher in both profit and valuation improvement
Lu Yang of the Bank of Shanghai Fund pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the abundant water supply and the rapid growth of the proportion of new energy installed capacity have had a restraining effect on the demand for thermal coal, resulting in a sluggish coal price in the peak season, which in turn has affected the performance of listed coal companies. At the same time, the unexpected drop in coal prices has created additional profit margins for traditional thermal power companies, which has somewhat restored their profitability. With the deepening of the market-oriented reform of electricity, as a baseload energy, the role of thermal power in peak regulation and frequency regulation makes its profitability more stable, and also brings the possibility of both profitability and valuation improvement for the power sector.
4.2. Golden Eagle Fund: The innovative drug industry has entered a stage of rapid development
Ouyang Juan of the Golden Eagle Fund said that in the medium and long term, the rigid demand for medicine will continue to increase with the acceleration of aging. For example, concepts such as healthy aging and the silver economy will give rise to incremental demand for aging, and in terms of pharmaceutical companies, Chinese pharmaceutical companies continue to break through the fields monopolized by foreign countries. Focus on the three major directions of innovative drugs, medical devices and equipment, and traditional Chinese medicine. Taking innovative drugs as an example, drugs that truly meet clinical value are expected to be highlighted, and the domestic industry has entered a stage of rapid development from the pattern of me-tooPD-1 involution to differentiated ADC varieties, and cooperate with MNC companies to achieve large-scale BD transactions.
4.3. Zhonggeng Fund: The consumer sector may still have stamina
Zhonggeng Fund said that the consumer service sector rose in the first place that week, because the industry data was weak after the previous holiday, the lack of catalysis, and the sector fell deeply, and the recent Politburo meeting boosted market confidence, emphasizing the need to focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting cultural tourism, pension, childcare, housekeeping and other consumption, the sector showed a rebound after this, and the follow-up still needs to continue to track the follow-up domestic travel data, policy details and incremental policies.
The poor performance of the power equipment and new energy sectors is mainly due to the market's concerns about international trade policies, investors are worried that the intensification of external policy risks will have an adverse impact on the performance of industry companies, and there is still fierce competition on the domestic supply side, resulting in a large pullback in the power equipment and new energy sectors.
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